非洲猪瘟疫情对生猪产业链上市公司市场价值的影响研究

目的] 研究旨在应用实证方法分析非洲猪瘟疫情对生猪产业链上市公司市场价值造成的影响,进而得出疫情对生猪产业链上养殖、屠宰、加工、消费等环节利益相关者收益的影响。方法]采用事件研究法,选取涉及生猪产业链上市公司,按主营业务统计为肉制品加工、养殖、饲料和兽药4种类型的32家相关上市公司,通过设计指标对生猪产业链上市公司股票异常收益率波动进行计算和检验。结果]研究结果表明：非洲猪瘟疫情事件对生猪养殖行业的影响最大；对兽药行业的影响周期最长；肉制品加工行业的影响程度和周期仅次于兽药行业,对饲料行业的影响最小。结论] “非洲猪瘟”事件对猪产业链上的饲料、养殖、肉制品加工、兽药类上市公司市场价值存在显著的负面影响。

The Impact of African Swine Fever Epidemic on Listed Companies of Pig Industry Chain in China

The study aims to analyze the influence of African swine fever epidemic on the market value of listed companies of pig industry chain in China, and then to clarify the influence of the epidemic situation on the stakeholders in pig industry chain, such as breeding, slaughtering, processing and consumption. Applying event study method, the data are selected from 32 listed companies of pig industrial chain involving meat processing, breeding, feed and veterinary medicine. Fluctuation of daily abnormal return (AR) and cumulated abnormal return (CAR) of the sample data are calculated, analyzed and tested. Results show that: the impact of African swine fever epidemic on different listed companies of pig industrial chain is different in time and degree. The impact degree on breeding industry is the most negative. The impact time on veterinary medicine industry is the longest. The impact degree and time of the meat processing industry is only after the veterinary medicine industry. The negative influence on the feed industry is minimal. To sum up, African swine fever epidemic has a significantly negative impact on the market value of feed, breeding, meat processing and veterinary medicine listed companies of the pig industry chain.