Climate‐induced seasonal changes in smallmouth bass growth rate potential at the southern range extent

Temperature increases due to climate change over the coming century will likely affect smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) growth in lotic systems at the southern extent of their native range. However, the thermal response of a stream to warming climate conditions could be affected by the flow regime of each stream, mitigating the effects on smallmouth bass populations. We developed bioenergetics models to compare change in smallmouth bass growth rate potential (GRP) from present to future projected monthly stream temperatures across two flow regimes: runoff and groundwater‐dominated. Seasonal differences in GRP between stream types were then compared. The models were developed for fourteen streams within the Ozark–Ouachita Interior Highlands in Arkansas, Oklahoma and Missouri, USA, which contain smallmouth bass. In our simulations, smallmouth bass mean GRP during summer months decreased by 0.005 g g^?1 day^?1 in runoff streams and 0.002 g g^?1 day^?1 in groundwater streams by the end of century. Mean GRP during winter, fall and early spring increased under future climate conditions within both stream types (e.g., 0.00019 g g^?1 day^?1 in runoff and 0.0014 g g^?1 day^?1 in groundwater streams in spring months). We found significant differences in change in GRP between runoff and groundwater streams in three seasons in end‐of‐century simulations (spring, summer and fall). Potential differences in stream temperature across flow regimes could be an important habitat component to consider when investigating effects of climate change as fishes from various flow regimes that are relatively close geographically could be affected differently by warming climate conditions.     

Projected impacts of climate change on stream salmonids with implications for resilience‐based management

The sustainability of freshwater fisheries is increasingly affected by climate warming, habitat alteration, invasive species and other drivers of global change. The State of Michigan, USA, contains ecologically, socioeconomically valuable coldwater stream salmonid fisheries that are highly susceptible to these ecological alterations. Thus, there is a need for future management approaches that promote resilient stream ecosystems that absorb change amidst disturbances. Fisheries professionals in Michigan are responding to this need by designing a comprehensive management plan for stream brook charr (Salvelinus fontinalis), brown trout (Salmo trutta) and rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) populations. To assist in developing such a plan, we used stream‐specific regression models to forecast thermal habitat suitability in streams throughout Michigan from 2006 to 2056 under different predicted climate change scenarios. As baseflow index (i.e., relative groundwater input) increased, stream thermal sensitivity (i.e., relative susceptibility to temperature change) decreased. Thus, the magnitude of temperature warming and frequency of thermal habitat degradation were lowest in streams with the highest baseflow indices. Thermal habitats were most suitable in rainbow trout streams as this species has a wider temperature range for growth (12.0–22.5 °C) compared to brook charr (11.0–20.5 °C) and brown trout (12.0–20.0 °C). Our study promotes resilience‐based salmonid management by providing a methodology for stream temperature and thermal habitat suitability prediction. Fisheries professionals can use this approach to protect coldwater habitats and drivers of stream cooling and ultimately conserve resilient salmonid populations amidst global change.     

Modelling effects of climate change on Michigan brown trout and rainbow trout: Precipitation and groundwater as key predictors

Understanding how changes in stream temperature affect survival and growth of coldwater fishes, including brown trout (Salmo trutta) and rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), is important for conserving coldwater stream fisheries in a changing climate. However, some contemporary stream temperature models assume spatially uniform (i.e. unrealistic) air–stream temperature relationships or demand hydrometeorological predictors (e.g. solar radiation and convection) that are expensive and often impractical for fisheries managers to measure. As such, we produced a relatively cost-effective, management-relevant modelling approach for predicting effects of changes in air temperature, precipitation and groundwater inputs on stream temperature and, consequently, the survival and growth of brown trout and rainbow trout in Michigan, USA. We found that precipitation- and groundwater-corrected stream temperature models (mean adjusted R² = .77, range = 0.65–0.88) performed better than linear air–stream temperature models (mean adjusted R² = .59, range = 0.21–0.80). Stream temperature was projected to increase by 0.07–3.88°C (1%–22%) with simulated changes in air temperature, precipitation and groundwater inputs. The greatest warming was predicted for surface runoff-dominated sites with limited groundwater-driven thermal buffering, where thermal habitat suitability for salmonid survival and growth declined 20%–40%. However, groundwater-dominated sites may not be immune to temperature warming, especially if groundwater temperature increases or groundwater inputs decline in a changing climate. Our modelling approach provides a reliable, cost-effective method for predicting effects of climate change on brown trout and rainbow trout survival and growth, allowing for strategic management actions to increase the thermal resilience and sustainability of salmonid populations (e.g. groundwater conservation and riparian/watershed rehabilitation).     

Anticipating climate change impacts on Mongolian salmonids: bioenergetics models for lenok and Baikal grayling

The Eg–Uur River ecosystem in north‐central Mongolia provides an opportunity to study salmonid species in a system that has already experienced significant climate change. These species are currently imperilled in Mongolian waters, with Baikal grayling (Thymallus arcticus baicalensis) listed as near‐threatened and lenok (Brachymystax lenok) listed as vulnerable on the Mongolian red list. Air temperature records demonstrate that in the last 40 years Northern Mongolia's rate of warming has been three times greater than the northern hemisphere average. Despite alarming trends in air temperatures, little is known of the thermal ecology of these species. Due to the threat of climate change to these species, the objective of our study was to quantify metabolic costs for these species from streamside routine metabolic measures and derive bioenergetics models that we used to assess potential climate change response. Streamside measurements of metabolism were remarkably consistent with expectations from measures of other salmonids gathered under more closely controlled laboratory conditions. Metabolism increased exponentially with temperature for both species. The resulting preliminary bioenergetics models suggest these species are already experiencing temperatures near their upper levels for growth during summer and conditions are expected to deteriorate with warming. Even a modest 2 °C increase in water temperatures during ice out would result in a 59% reduction in growth of lenok, and an inability of Baikal grayling to grow (if food levels remained unchanged) or a 14–23% increase in consumption in order to maintain current growth rates.     

Potential direct and indirect effects of climate change on a shallow natural lake fish assemblage

Much uncertainty exists around how fish communities in shallow lakes will respond to climate change. In this study, we modelled the effects of increased water temperatures on consumption and growth rates of two piscivores (northern pike [Esox lucius] and largemouth bass [Micropterus salmoides]) and examined relative effects of consumption by these predators on two prey species (bluegill [Lepomis macrochirus] and yellow perch [Perca flavescens]). Bioenergetics models were used to simulate the effects of climate change on growth and food consumption using predicted 2040 and 2060 temperatures in a shallow Nebraska Sandhill lake, USA. The patterns and magnitude of daily and cumulative consumption during the growing season (April–October) were generally similar between the two predators. However, growth of northern pike was always reduced (?3 to ?45% change) compared to largemouth bass that experienced subtle changes (4 to ?6% change) in weight by the end of the growing season. Assuming similar population size structure and numbers of predators in 2040–2060, future consumption of bluegill and yellow perch by northern pike and largemouth bass will likely increase (range: 3–24%), necessitating greater prey biomass to meet future energy demands. The timing of increased predator consumption will likely shift towards spring and fall (compared to summer), when prey species may not be available in the quantities required. Our findings suggest that increased water temperatures may affect species at the edge of their native range (i.e. northern pike) and a potential mismatch between predator and prey could exist.     

Projecting future habitat quality of three midwestern reservoir fishes under warming conditions

Rising temperatures caused by climate change are likely to affect cool‐water and warm‐water fishes differently. Yet, forecasts of anticipated temperature effects on fishes of different thermal guilds are lacking, especially in freshwater ecosystems. Towards this end, we used spatially explicit, growth rate potential (GRP) models to project changes in seasonal habitat quality for a warm‐water piscivore (largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides), a cool‐water piscivore (walleye Sander vitreus) and a hybrid piscivore (saugeye S. vitreus × S. canadensis) in two Midwestern reservoirs. We assessed habitat quality for two periods (early and middle 21st century) under two realistic greenhouse gas emission scenarios (a mid‐century emissions peak and a rapid continuous increase in emissions). Largemouth bass were projected to experience enhanced or slightly reduced habitat during all seasons, and throughout the mid‐21st century. By contrast, walleye habitat was projected to decline with anticipated warming, except during the spring in the smaller of our two study reservoirs and during the fall in the larger of our two study reservoirs. Saugeye habitat was projected to either increase modestly or decline slightly during the spring and fall and declines in habitat quality and quantity that were smaller than those for walleye were identified during summer. Collectively, our findings indicate that climate warming will differentially alter habitat suitability for reservoir piscivores, favouring warm‐water species over cool‐water species. We expect these changes in habitat quality to impact the dynamics of reservoir fish populations to varying degrees necessitating the consideration of climate when making future management decisions.     

Marine biogeochemical response to a rapid warming in the main stream of the Kuroshio in the western North Pacific

Impact of climate change on marine biogeochemical parameters and ecosystem is one of the important issues of our environment. Direct evidence of marine pelagic ecosystem changes is found with warming of sea water and sea‐level rise in the main stream of the Kuroshio in the East China Sea and the western North Pacific during these three decades based on the analysis of long‐term comprehensive hydrographic observations. In terms of annual mean, the warming rate of surface air temperature and sea surface temperature ranged from 0.15 to 0.21°C per decade in and around the main stream of the Kuroshio in the East China Sea, which exceed the global mean warming rate of 0.128 ± 0.026°C per decade during the period from 1956 to 2005 reported in IPCC 2007. One of the features in this rapid warming region is an increase of number of Pterosagitta draco, a cosmopolitan warm‐water zooplankton. Biogeochemical parameters, such as wet weight of zooplankton, plant pigment and nutrients concentration in the upper 200 m have been decreasing while dissolved oxygen content and seawater temperature have been increasing in the upper 200 m in the main stream of the Kuroshio in the East China Sea. These observed linear trends of the biogeochemical parameters would be foresights for temperate oceans in the future.     

Intrinsic and extrinsic drivers of life‐history variability for a south‐western cutthroat trout

The impacts of climate change on cold‐water fishes will likely negatively manifest in populations at the trailing edge of their distributions. Rio Grande cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii virginalis, RGCT) occupy arid south‐western U.S. streams at the southern‐most edge of all cutthroat trout distributions, making RGCT particularly vulnerable to the anticipated warming and drying in this region. We hypothesised that RGCT possess a portfolio of life‐history traits that aid in their persistence within streams of varying temperature and stream drying conditions. We used otolith and multistate capture–mark–recapture data to determine how these environmental constraints influence life‐history trait expression (length‐ and age‐at‐maturity) and demography in RGCT populations from northern New Mexico, United States. We found evidence that RGCT reached maturity fastest at sites with warm stream temperatures and low densities. We did not find a strong relationship between discharge and any demographic rate, although apparent survival of mature RGCT decreased as stream temperature increased. Our study suggests plasticity in trait expression may be a life‐history characteristic which can assist trailing edge populations like RGCT persist in a changing climate.     

Long‐term trends and drivers of larval phenology and abundance of dominant brachyuran crabs in the Gulf of St. Lawrence (Canada)

Climate change has led to major shifts in the timing of biological events, with many studies demonstrating earlier phenology in response to warming. However, few of these studies have investigated the effects of climate change on the phenology of larvae in marine species. Phenological shifts can result in mismatches between consumers and prey and hence affect growth and survival of individuals, and ultimately population demography. We investigated the temporal changes in phenology and abundance of the larvae of dominant brachyuran crabs in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (eastern Canada) based on plankton collections spanning 1982–2012. The Gulf of St. Lawrence has warmed since the early 1990s, and our analyses revealed that larvae of snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) and toad crabs (Hyas spp.) exhibited a significant trend towards earlier phenology over the 30‐year study period. This shift in phenology appeared to be a consequence of the effect of climate warming on both the timing of hatching and larval development rate. Larval abundance responded differently by crab taxon to climate warming, likely due to differences in thermal tolerance. The warming trend was unfavourable to snow crab, which is the most cold‐adapted and stenothermic of the taxa examined in this study. The abundance of snow crab larvae was lower when sea ice retreat occurred earlier than day 110 of the year and sea surface temperature was higher than 8.5°C. On the other hand, larval abundance of rock crab (Cancer irroratus), which prefers higher temperatures, was positively related to surface temperature.     

Predicting the current and future suitable habitat distributions of the anchovy (Engraulis ringens) using the Maxent model in the coastal areas off central‐northern Chile

An assessment of climate change impacts on the habitat suitability of fish species is an important tool to improve the understanding and decision‐making needed to reduce potential climate change effects based on the observed relationships of biological responses and environmental conditions. In this study, we use historical (2010–2015) environmental sea surface temperature (SST), upwelling index (UI), chlorophyll‐a (Chl‐a) and biological (i.e., anchovy adults acoustic presence) data (i.e., Maxent) to determine anchovy habitat suitability in the coastal areas off central‐northern (25°S–32°S) Chile. Using geographic information systems (GIS), the model was forced by changes in regionalized SST, UI and Chl‐a as projected by IPCC models under the RPC (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) emissions scenarios for the simulation period 2015–2050. The model simulates, for all RCP scenarios, negative responses in anchovy presence, reflecting the predicted changes in environmental variables, dominated by a future positive (warming) change in SST and UI, and a decrease in chlorophyll‐a (i.e., phytoplankton biomass). The model predicts negative changes in habitat suitability in coastal areas from north of Taltal (25°S) to south of Caldera (27°45′S) and in Coquimbo littoral zone (29°–30°12′S). The habitat suitability models and climate change predictions identified in this study may provide a scientific basis for the development of management measures for anchovy fisheries in the coastal areas of the South American coast and other parts of the world.     

Critically examining the knowledge base required to mechanistically project climate impacts: A case study of Europe's fish and shellfish

An amalgam of empirical data from laboratory and field studies is needed to build robust, theoretical models of climate impacts that can provide science‐based advice for sustainable management of fish and shellfish resources. Using a semi‐systematic literature review, Gap Analysis and multilevel meta‐analysis, we assessed the status of empirical knowledge on the direct effects of climate change on 37 high‐value species targeted by European fisheries and aquaculture sectors operating in marine and freshwater regions. Knowledge on potential climate change‐related drivers (single or combined) on several responses (vital rates) across four categories (exploitation sector, region, life stage, species), was considerably unbalanced as well as biased, including a low number of studies (a) examining the interaction of abiotic factors, (b) offering opportunities to assess local adaptation, (c) targeting lower‐value species. The meta‐analysis revealed that projected warming would increase mean growth rates in fish and mollusks and significantly elevate metabolic rates in fish. Decreased levels of dissolved oxygen depressed rates of growth and metabolism across coherent species groups (e.g., small pelagics, etc.) while expected declines in pH reduced growth in most species groups and increased mortality in bivalves. The meta‐analytical results were influenced by the study design and moderators (e.g., life stage, season). Although meta‐analytic tools have become increasingly popular, when performed on the limited available data, these analyses cannot grasp relevant population effects, even in species with a long history of study. We recommend actions to overcome these shortcomings and improve mechanistic (cause‐and‐effect) projections of climate impacts on fish and shellfish.     

Transform high seas management to build climate resilience in marine seafood supply

Climate change is projected to redistribute fisheries resources, resulting in tropical regions suffering decreases in seafood production. While sustainably managing marine ecosystems contributes to building climate resilience, these solutions require transformation of ocean governance. Recent studies and international initiatives suggest that conserving high seas biodiversity and fish stocks will have ecological and economic benefits; however, implications for seafood security under climate change have not been examined. Here, we apply global‐scale mechanistic species distribution models to 30 major straddling fish stocks to show that transforming high seas fisheries governance could increase resilience to climate change impacts. By closing the high seas to fishing or cooperatively managing its fisheries, we project that catches in exclusive economic zones (EEZs) would likely increase by around 10% by 2050 relative to 2000 under climate change (representative concentration pathway 4.5 and 8.5), compensating for the expected losses (around ?6%) from ‘business‐as‐usual’. Specifically, high seas closure increases the resilience of fish stocks, as indicated by a mean species abundance index, by 30% in EEZs. We suggest that improving high seas fisheries governance would increase the resilience of coastal countries to climate change.     

Optimum temperature and food-limited growth of larval Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) on Georges Bank

We estimated recent growth of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) larvae collected on the southern flank of Georges Bank in May 1992–94 from the ratio of RNA to DNA (R/D) and water temperature. Growth of both species increased with water temperature to about 7°C and then decreased. The highest growth rates were observed in May 1993 at water temperatures around 7°C. These data confirm an earlier observation of comparable temperature optima for growth of Atlantic cod and haddock larvae in the north‐west Atlantic. Comparisons of field growth rates and temperature optima with data for larvae cultured at high temperatures and prey densities in the laboratory suggest that growth may have been food‐limited at higher temperatures on Georges Bank. Given that 7°C is the long‐term mean water temperature on the southern flank in May and that climate models predict a possible 2–4°C rise in water temperatures for the western North Atlantic, our findings point to a possible adverse effect of global warming on Atlantic cod and haddock.     

Vulnerability of aquaculture‐related livelihoods to changing climate at the global scale

There is now a strong consensus that during the 20th century, and especially during recent decades, the earth has experienced a significant warming trend with projections suggesting additional further warming during the 21st century. Associated with this warming trend are changes in climate that are expected to show substantial spatial variability across the earth's surface. Globally, fish production has continued to increase during recent years at a rate exceeding that of human population growth. However, the contribution from capture fisheries has remained largely static since the late 1980s with the increase in production being accounted for by dramatic growth in the aquaculture sector. In this study, the distribution of vulnerability of aquaculture‐related livelihoods to climate change was assessed at the global scale based on the concept of vulnerability as a function of sensitivity to climate change, exposure to climate change and adaptive capacity. Use was made of national‐level statistics along with gridded climate and population data. Climate change scenarios were supplied using the MAGICC/SCENGEN climate modelling tools. Analysis was conducted for aquaculture in freshwater, brackish and marine environments with outputs represented as a series of raster images. A number of Asian countries (Vietnam, Bangladesh, Laos and China) were indicated as most vulnerable to impacts on freshwater production. Vietnam, Thailand, Egypt and Ecuador stood out in terms of brackish water production. Norway and Chile were considered most vulnerable to impacts on marine production while a number of Asian countries (China, Vietnam and the Philippines) also ranked highly.     

Marine capture fisheries in the Arctic: winners or losers under climate change and ocean acidification?

Climate change, ocean acidification (OA) and the subsequent changes in marine productivity may affect fisheries and eventually the whole economy in the Arctic. We analysed how changes in climate and ocean pH under scenarios of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions are likely to affect the economics of marine fisheries in the Arctic. We applied a Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) and outputs from four different Earth System Models (ESMs) to project future changes in the distribution and maximum catch potential of exploited marine fishes and invertebrates. We projected that total fisheries revenue in the Arctic region may increase by 39% (14–59%) by 2050 relative to 2000 under the Special Reports on Emission Scenario (SRES) A2. Simultaneously, total fishing costs, fishers’ incomes, household incomes and economy‐wide impacts in the Arctic are also projected to increase. Climate change with OA is expected to reduce the potential increases in catch and the economic indicators studied herein. Although the projections suggest that Arctic countries are likely to be ‘winners’ under climate change in comparison with tropical developing countries, the effects of OA will lower the expected future benefits in the Arctic. The predicted impacts are likely to be conservative as we consider only the direct effects of OA on fishes and calcifiers, of which there are only a few in the Arctic. Results of this study would be useful for designing effective adaptation strategies to climate change and measures to mitigate the potential negative impacts of OA in the Arctic.     

Ocean warming alters species abundance patterns and increases species diversity in an African sub‐tropical reef‐fish community

The impacts of ocean warming resulting from recent climate change on the abundance patterns of marine species have been well documented in temperate seas of the northern hemisphere, but the impacts of a widening tropical belt are largely unexplored. Using measurements of sea surface temperature and spear‐fishing records for 84 species spanning a 19‐yr period, we examined the effects of ocean warming on a sub‐tropical reef‐fish community on the southeastern coast of Africa. Corresponding with a 0.46°C increase in average sea surface temperature between the time periods 1989–97 and 2002–2007, the ratio of species showing an overall decrease/ no change/increase in abundance was 1 : 3 : 2 among six species at the northern limits of their distribution in the region (temperate species), 1 : 15 : 6 among 22 broadly distributed species, and 1 : 5 : 9 among 15 species at the southern limits of their distribution (tropical species). Also, the relative abundance of temperate species as a whole decreased by 10–13% whereas that of tropical species increased by 9%, and broadly distributed species showed little change. Average species richness and diversity increased 33 and 15% respectively between the two time periods. These results are broadly consistent with a predicted poleward shift in species ranges and a predicted increase in species richness and diversity with increasing sea temperature. Our findings confirm that large‐scale climate change causing a widening of the tropical belt and subsequent ocean warming is having a profound impact on marine species abundance patterns and community composition at a local scale in the sub‐tropics.     

Riparian restoration offsets predicted population consequences of climate warming in a threatened headwater fish

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Forecasting fish stock dynamics under climate change: Baltic herring (Clupea harengus) as a case study

Climate change and anthropogenic disturbances may affect marine populations and ecosystems through multiple pathways. In this study we present a framework in which we integrate existing models and knowledge on basic regulatory processes to investigate the potential impact of future scenarios of fisheries exploitation and climate change on the temporal dynamics of the central Baltic herring stock. Alternative scenarios of increasing sea surface temperature and decreasing salinity of the Baltic Sea from a global climate model were combined with two alternative fishing scenarios, and their direct and ecosystem‐mediated effects (i.e., through predation by cod and competition with sprat) on the herring population were evaluated for the period 2010–2050. Gradual increase in temperature has a positive impact on the long‐term productivity of the herring stock, but it has the potential to enhance the recovery of the herring stock only in combination with sustainable fisheries management (i.e., F_msy). Conversely, projections of herring spawning stock biomass (SSB) were generally low under elevated fishing mortality levels (F_high), comparable with those experienced by the stock during the 1990s. Under the combined effects of long‐term warming and high fishing mortality uncertainty in herring SSB projections was higher and increasing for the duration of the forecasts, suggesting a synergistic effect of fishery exploitation and climate forcing on fish populations dynamics. Our study shows that simulations of long‐term fish dynamics can be an informative tool to derive expectations of the potential long‐term impact of alternative future scenarios of exploitation and climate change.     

Thermal habitat quality of aquatic organisms near power plant discharges: potential exacerbating effects of climate warming

Water temperature strongly affects aquatic ectotherms, as even slight temperature changes can have dramatic effects on physiological rates. Water bodies receiving industrial thermal discharges can undergo dramatic spatial and temporal changes in water temperature. To quantify effects on aquatic ectotherms, thermal habitat quality (bioenergetic growth rate potential; GRP) for zebra mussel, Dreissena polymorpha (Pallas), rusty crayfish, Orconectes rusticus (Girard), walleye, Sander vitreus (Mitchill) and smallmouth bass, Micropterus dolomieu (Lacepède) was estimated near two power plant thermal discharges on the Ohio River, USA, from 2010 to 2012 using bioenergetics models. These results were then compared with GRP under increased base temperatures representing climate warming. Growth rate potential for all species was low near the discharges during summer and highest in winter, with increasing prey consumption minimising the negative effects of increased temperatures. In their immediate vicinity, thermal discharges had a more adverse effect on GRP than plausible climate warming but primarily affected GRP over a small spatial area, particularly within 400 m downstream from the power plants. Examining thermal habitat suitability will become increasingly important as rising energy demand and climate change collectively affect aquatic organisms and their habitats.     

Parasitism of a native Hawaiian stream fish by an introduced nematode increases with declining precipitation across a natural rainfall gradient

Climate change can promote disease emergence if shifting conditions favour infection of native fauna by introduced parasites and pathogens. In Hawai'i, climate warming is predicted to reduce net precipitation and surface flow in streams, which in turn could increase parasitism of native stream fishes by non‐native parasites. In this study, we utilised a natural precipitation gradient across the Hamakua coast on the island of Hawai'i to assess the relationship between precipitation and infection of Awaous stamineus, a native amphidromous goby, by the introduced nematode Camallanus cotti. We found that the abundance, intensity and prevalence of C. cotti in A. stamineus increased with declining rainfall. Our results also show that parasitism tracks precipitation patterns across the archipelago and that parasitism increases even with moderate decreases in rainfall. As the Hamakua coast precipitation gradient represents a proxy for predicted climate‐driven reductions in precipitation, these findings suggest that infection of native Hawaiian fishes by introduced parasites will increase if climate conditions change as expected. Our findings also suggest that parasitism may be exacerbated by other factors that reduce surface flow, including water extraction for agricultural and urban uses. If so, then adaptive management of minimum flow standards in Hawai'i and elsewhere could improve the well‐being of at‐risk native fishes by alleviating parasitism under current and future climate conditions.