Thermal habitat quality of aquatic organisms near power plant discharges: potential exacerbating effects of climate warming

Water temperature strongly affects aquatic ectotherms, as even slight temperature changes can have dramatic effects on physiological rates. Water bodies receiving industrial thermal discharges can undergo dramatic spatial and temporal changes in water temperature. To quantify effects on aquatic ectotherms, thermal habitat quality (bioenergetic growth rate potential; GRP) for zebra mussel, Dreissena polymorpha (Pallas), rusty crayfish, Orconectes rusticus (Girard), walleye, Sander vitreus (Mitchill) and smallmouth bass, Micropterus dolomieu (Lacepède) was estimated near two power plant thermal discharges on the Ohio River, USA, from 2010 to 2012 using bioenergetics models. These results were then compared with GRP under increased base temperatures representing climate warming. Growth rate potential for all species was low near the discharges during summer and highest in winter, with increasing prey consumption minimising the negative effects of increased temperatures. In their immediate vicinity, thermal discharges had a more adverse effect on GRP than plausible climate warming but primarily affected GRP over a small spatial area, particularly within 400 m downstream from the power plants. Examining thermal habitat suitability will become increasingly important as rising energy demand and climate change collectively affect aquatic organisms and their habitats.     

Climate‐induced seasonal changes in smallmouth bass growth rate potential at the southern range extent

Temperature increases due to climate change over the coming century will likely affect smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) growth in lotic systems at the southern extent of their native range. However, the thermal response of a stream to warming climate conditions could be affected by the flow regime of each stream, mitigating the effects on smallmouth bass populations. We developed bioenergetics models to compare change in smallmouth bass growth rate potential (GRP) from present to future projected monthly stream temperatures across two flow regimes: runoff and groundwater‐dominated. Seasonal differences in GRP between stream types were then compared. The models were developed for fourteen streams within the Ozark–Ouachita Interior Highlands in Arkansas, Oklahoma and Missouri, USA, which contain smallmouth bass. In our simulations, smallmouth bass mean GRP during summer months decreased by 0.005 g g^?1 day^?1 in runoff streams and 0.002 g g^?1 day^?1 in groundwater streams by the end of century. Mean GRP during winter, fall and early spring increased under future climate conditions within both stream types (e.g., 0.00019 g g^?1 day^?1 in runoff and 0.0014 g g^?1 day^?1 in groundwater streams in spring months). We found significant differences in change in GRP between runoff and groundwater streams in three seasons in end‐of‐century simulations (spring, summer and fall). Potential differences in stream temperature across flow regimes could be an important habitat component to consider when investigating effects of climate change as fishes from various flow regimes that are relatively close geographically could be affected differently by warming climate conditions.     

Effects of current and future climates on the growth dynamics and distributions of two riverine fishes

1. To facilitate conservation planning, there is a need for improved confidence in forecasts of climate change impacts on species distributions. Towards that end, there have been calls for the development of process-based models to test hypotheses concerning the mechanisms by which temperature shapes distribution and to corroborate forecasts of correlative models.
2. Models of temperature-dependent growth (TDG) were developed for two Australian riverine blackfishes with disjunct longitudinal distributions: Gadopsis marmoratus (occupies lower, warmer elevations) and Gadopsis bispinosus (occupies higher, cooler elevations). The models were used to (a) predict blackfish monthly and annual growth dynamics under current and future climate scenarios within different elevation bands of their current distribution, and (b) test the hypothesis that, under the current climate, the distributions of each species would be positively correlated with predicted TDG.
3. Increases in mean annual growth were forecast for both species under all warming scenarios, across all elevation bands. Both species currently occupy annual habitat temperatures below those optimal for growth. Under certain warming scenarios, the predicted increases in annual growth belie forecasts of within-year dynamics that may interact with the phenology of blackfish to impair recruitment.
4. There was not a significant positive linear relationship between predicted TDG and observed abundance among river segments for either species. Both species were strongly under-represented where annual growth rates were forecast to be optimal and over-represented where growth rates were forecast to be intermediate.
5. Confidence in forecasts of climate change impacts based on correlative models will increase when those forecasts are consistent with a mechanistic understanding of how specific drivers (e.g. water temperature) affect processes (e.g. growth). This process-based study revealed surprises concerning how future climates may affect fish growth dynamics, showing that although the blackfish distributions are correlated with temperature the temperature-dependent mechanisms underpinning that correlation require further investigation.

     

Predicting the current and future suitable habitat distributions of the anchovy (Engraulis ringens) using the Maxent model in the coastal areas off central‐northern Chile

An assessment of climate change impacts on the habitat suitability of fish species is an important tool to improve the understanding and decision‐making needed to reduce potential climate change effects based on the observed relationships of biological responses and environmental conditions. In this study, we use historical (2010–2015) environmental sea surface temperature (SST), upwelling index (UI), chlorophyll‐a (Chl‐a) and biological (i.e., anchovy adults acoustic presence) data (i.e., Maxent) to determine anchovy habitat suitability in the coastal areas off central‐northern (25°S–32°S) Chile. Using geographic information systems (GIS), the model was forced by changes in regionalized SST, UI and Chl‐a as projected by IPCC models under the RPC (i.e., RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5) emissions scenarios for the simulation period 2015–2050. The model simulates, for all RCP scenarios, negative responses in anchovy presence, reflecting the predicted changes in environmental variables, dominated by a future positive (warming) change in SST and UI, and a decrease in chlorophyll‐a (i.e., phytoplankton biomass). The model predicts negative changes in habitat suitability in coastal areas from north of Taltal (25°S) to south of Caldera (27°45′S) and in Coquimbo littoral zone (29°–30°12′S). The habitat suitability models and climate change predictions identified in this study may provide a scientific basis for the development of management measures for anchovy fisheries in the coastal areas of the South American coast and other parts of the world.     

不同气候模态下秘鲁外海茎柔鱼栖息地的季节性分布

茎柔鱼（Dosidicus gigas）为环境敏感型头足类,气候的多元变化促使茎柔鱼栖息地发生变动。本研究利用海表温度（SST）和海表面高度（SSHA）两个关键环境因子构建栖息地适宜性指数（HSI）模型,结合太平洋年代际涛动（PDO）指数,分析1950-2015年不同气候模态下秘鲁外海茎柔鱼栖息地的季节性分布规律。结果发现,PDO冷期茎柔鱼栖息地适宜性较高;而PDO暖期栖息地适宜性较低。相较于PDO冷期,PDO暖期下茎柔鱼适宜栖息地分布向东南移动。适宜栖息地的分布位置与适宜的SST和SSHA的重叠区域重合,表明两个关键环境因子与栖息地分布显著相关。此外,适宜栖息地指数距平值与PDO指数的年际变化呈显著负相关关系。春季茎柔鱼渔场栖息地适宜性高于冬季,且冬季适宜栖息地的分布相较春季偏东南方向。茎柔鱼渔场6-11月适宜的SST和最适宜的SST在经度和纬度上的分布存在显著差异,春季（9-11月）最适宜的SST分布逐月向西北方向移动;冬季（6-8月）最适宜的SST分布逐月向东南方向移动。推测不同气候模态下茎柔鱼栖息地季节性分布差异,可能是由于最适宜的SST显著的月间分布差异所致。研究表明,不同PDO时期下茎柔鱼栖息地适宜性具有显著季节性差异,其差异可由环境因子的月间变动来解释。     

Modelling Atlantic mackerel spawning habitat suitability and its future distribution in the north‐west Atlantic

We investigated the effect of environmental conditions on Atlantic mackerel spawning habitat in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (sGSL). Based on generalized additive models, we (i) modelled the optimal spawning habitat of mackerel in the sGSL using daily egg production (DEP) in June, (ii) predicted known and new potential present spawning habitats in the GSL and the north‐west Atlantic, and (iii) assessed how they respond to future climate change. Our findings showed that both mackerel presence–absence and given‐presence DEP were associated with sea surface temperature (10–16.5°C), salinity above 31 and depth < 120 m. Adding zooplankton showed a marked effect on the DEP given‐presence compared to the presence–absence. Predictions of spawning habitats under present (1999–2012) and future scenario (2066–2085) conditions were estimated from the presence–absence model without zooplankton, using physical conditions of the BNAM. Under present conditions, our model predicted well the main spawning habitat in the sGSL and other known secondary spawning habitats in the northern GSL (nGSL), the western and southern Newfoundland, and the north‐west Atlantic coast. Under future conditions, our study suggests that spawning habitats in the sGSL and the nGSL would expand. Our results, therefore, suggest that mackerel could benefit from a warmer GSL, minimizing the potential for a northward migration of the stock due to decreasing suitability of the sGSL as its main spawning ground, and a new but spatially limited potential habitat in Newfoundland coasts. These results can be used to inform stock management and develop adaptive management plans in the context of climate change.     

Water levels in a highland lake control the quantity and quality of spawning habitat for a littoral‐spawning galaxiid fish

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3种养殖模式下暗纹东方鲀的生长及水质变化

为探讨不同养殖模式对暗纹东方鲀生长及水质的影响,选取无损伤、健康的暗纹东方鲀7000尾,随机分成3种养殖模式:立体种养模式(模式Ⅰ)、单养模式(模式Ⅱ)和混养模式(模式Ⅲ),进行了为期56 d的养殖试验,比较3种养殖模式下暗纹东方鲀的生长速度、成活率以及养殖水质指标的变化。试验结果:模式Ⅰ暗纹东方鲀的成活率(97.10%)高于模式Ⅱ(92.35%)和模式Ⅲ(89.37%),特定生长率[(1.83±0.12)%/d]显著高于模式Ⅲ(P<0.05),饲料系数(2.20)则低于其他2种模式;模式Ⅱ下养殖水体的三态氮(TAN、NO2^--N和NO3^--N)无明显变化,其质量浓度略低于模式Ⅰ和模式Ⅲ,模式Ⅲ下三态氮的质量浓度有所升高,而模式Ⅰ下TAN和NO2^--N质量浓度有降低的趋势;3种养殖模式下,池塘水体的化学需氧量(COD)呈现先升后降再升的变化趋势,总悬浮物(TSS)呈现先升高后降低的趋势,其中模式Ⅰ的COD和TSS质量浓度均低于模式Ⅱ和模式Ⅲ;模式Ⅱ和模式Ⅲ下总氮(TN)质量浓度先降后升,而模式Ⅰ的TN质量浓度则是先降后升再降,且在14 d后均显著低于其他2种模式(P<0.05);模式Ⅱ和模式Ⅲ下总磷(TP)质量浓度无明显变化,模式Ⅰ下TP质量浓度在养殖初期有所升高,呈现先升后降的变化趋势,并在56 d时降至最低,显著低于模式Ⅱ和模式Ⅲ(P<0.05)。结果表明,在立体种养模式下,暗纹东方鲀不仅生长快,成活率高,而且栽种蕹菜对池塘养殖水体具有较好的净化作用,能减少池塘养殖水体富营养化,立体种养模式较单养和混养模式更适合暗纹东方鲀养殖。     

Do spatial models of growth rate potential reflect fish growth in a heterogeneous environment? A comparison of model results

Abstract – Spatial models of fish growth rate potential have been used to characterize a variety of environments including estuaries, the North American Great Lakes, small lakes and rivers. Growth rate potential models capture a snapshot of the environment but do not include the effects of habitat selection or competition for food in their measures of environment quality. Here, we test the ability of spatial models of fish growth rate potential to describe the quality of an environment for a fish population in which individual fish may select habitats and local competition may affect per capita intake. We compare growth rate potential measurements to simulated fish growth and distributions of model fish from a spatially explicit individual-based model of fish foraging in the same model environment. We base the model environment on data from Lake Ontario and base the model fish population on alewife in the lake. The results from a simulation experiment show that changes in the model environment that caused changes in the average growth rate potential correlated extremely highly ( r ²≥0.97) with changes in simulated fish growth. Unfortunately, growth rate potential was not a reliable quantitative predictor of simulated fish growth nor of the fish spatial distribution. The inability of the growth rate potential model to quantitatively predict simulated fish growth and fish distributions results from the fact that growth rate potential does not consider the effects of habitat selection or of competition on fish growth or distribution, processes that operate in our individual-based model and presumably also operate in nature. The results, however, do support the use of growth rate potential models to describe the relative quality of habitats and environments for fish populations.     

The effect of lake morphometry on thermal habitat use and growth in Arctic charr populations: implications for understanding climate‐change impacts

Oxygen stable isotope temperature reconstruction methods were used to estimate mean experienced summer temperatures from growth zones within individual Arctic charr otoliths sampled from lakes with contrasting morphologies but proximate locations. For either lake, otolith‐estimated temperatures were not significantly related to back‐calculated growth. Fish in the smaller lake evidenced an increase in growth with age related to increasing use of cooler thermal habitats, with the use of thermal habitat possibly governed by predation risks. No relationships between age, growth or temperature were observed in the larger lake. Significant negative effects on back‐calculated growth were observed due to increasing air temperatures in the smaller and shallower lake, possibly owing to warmer surface and littoral waters and a limited amount of preferred cool‐water habitat. A similar relationship was not observed in the larger and deeper lake and indicated that resident Arctic charr were not as vulnerable to the impacts of temperature warming, possibly because of better behavioural thermoregulation opportunities in the cooler, deeper lake. Results provide evidence for differing climate‐influenced growth outcomes among proximately located populations, with outcomes likely to depend on the differences among habitats, including lake size and morphometry which may act to influence fish densities in available preferred thermal habitats.