Simulation of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) recruitment with an individual-based model and comparison with field data

An individual‐based model (IBM) for the simulation of year‐to‐year survival during the early life‐history stages of the north‐east Atlantic stock of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) was developed within the EU funded Shelf‐Edge Advection, Mortality and Recruitment (SEAMAR) programme. The IBM included transport, growth and survival and was used to track the passive movement of mackerel eggs, larvae and post‐larvae and determine their distribution and abundance after approximately 2 months of drift. One of the main outputs from the IBM, namely distributions and numbers of surviving post‐larvae, are compared with field data as recruit (age‐0/age‐1 juveniles) distribution and abundance for the years 1998, 1999 and 2000. The juvenile distributions show more inter‐annual and spatial variability than the modelled distributions of survivors; this may be due to the restriction of using the same initial egg distribution for all 3 yr of simulation. The IBM simulations indicate two main recruitment areas for the north‐east Atlantic stock of mackerel, these being Porcupine Bank and the south‐eastern Bay of Biscay. These areas correspond to areas of high juvenile catches, although the juveniles generally have a more widespread distribution than the model simulations. The best agreement between modelled data and field data for distribution (juveniles and model survivors) is for the year 1998. The juvenile catches in different representative nursery areas are totalled to give a field abundance index (FAI). This index is compared with a model survivor index (MSI) which is calculated from the total of survivors for the whole spawning season. The MSI compares favourably with the FAI for 1998 and 1999 but not for 2000; in this year, juvenile catches dropped sharply compared with the previous years but there was no equivalent drop in modelled survivors.     

Egg and larval distributions of seven fish species in north-east Atlantic waters

The distribution of egg and larvae of mackerel, horse mackerel, sardine, hake, megrim, blue whiting and anchovy along the European Atlantic waters (south Portugal to Scotland) during 1998 is described. Time of the year, sea surface temperature and bottom depth are used to define the spawning habitat of the different species. Mackerel, horse mackerel, and sardine eggs and larvae presented the widest distribution, whereas megrim and anchovy showed a limited distribution, restricted to the Celtic Sea and the Bay of Biscay respectively. Correspondingly mackerel, horse mackerel and sardine showed the highest aggregation indices. Blue whiting larvae were found at the lowest temperatures, whereas anchovy eggs and larvae were found in the warmest waters. The analysis is a basis for evaluation of ongoing changes in the pelagic ecosystem of the north‐east Atlantic.     

Environmental control of Northeast Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) recruitment in the southern Bay of Biscay: case study of failure in the year 2000

We investigate the effect of strong meteorological perturbations in early spring on the success of mackerel (Scomber scombrus) recruitment in the N/NW Iberian area (southern Bay of Biscay) for the period 1999–2008. In 2000, the year of the most pronounced recruitment failure on record, two consecutive multidisciplinary surveys sampled hydrographic conditions and mackerel eggs, larvae and post‐larvae over the main mackerel spawning grounds of the north and northwest coast of the Iberian Peninsula. Analysis of egg and larval abundance and birthdates based on the otoliths of mackerel juveniles caught between July and October 2000 showed that there were no survivors from the early spring spawns, indicating a massive loss of early spawning effort. Moreover, the abundance of 1‐year‐old mackerel estimated from an acoustic survey carried out in 2001 was the lowest observed within the 1999–2008 time series. This low or null survival from the early spawns in 2000 could be due to the meteorological and oceanographic conditions of that spring, in particular two storm events in April after a relatively calm March. The first storm event from the north caused strong local wind in the southern Bay of Biscay but a weak oceanographic response. The second storm event from the southwest was mainly felt west of Galicia and caused a notable increase in shelf currents and a shift of the hydrographical structure along the shelf. Detailed analysis of strong wind pulses in early spring within the historical recruitment record suggests that strong local turbulence generated by high wind speeds and advection of larvae caused by the enhancement of shelf currents can contribute to reduced recruitment. Our observations indicate that, in 2000, both mechanisms were present.     

A numerical model of the dispersion of blue whiting larvae, Micromesistiuspoutassou (Risso), in the eastern North Atlantic

A numerical circulation and transport model system was used to simulate the dispersion of larvae of blue whiting, Micromesistius poutassou (Risso) in the eastern North Atlantic. The area of the model extends from the northern Bay of Biscay to the Norwegian Sea and covers the shelf-edge and adjacent waters at a horizontal resolution of around 20 km in 16 vertical layers. Larval input data were based on the long-term mean distribution, abundance and seasonal occurrence of larvae, derived from historical information. The circulation model was run using tidal forcing and climatological density fields as well as both climatological meteorological forcing and actual six-hourly wind stress fields for 1994 and 1995. Transport from the main spawning areas to the west of the British Isles and north of Porcupine Bank was associated with currents along the shelf-edge and in the Rockall Trough. Tracers were either dispersed to the north and north-east along the shelf-edge, extending into the northern North Sea and Norwegian Sea, or were retained in the Rockall Gyre and over Porcupine Bank. A less intense southerly flow from Porcupine Bank was observed both under climatological conditions and in the 1995 simulation, when winds were more variable than in 1994. The results based on the 1995 meteorological conditions showed the most extreme retention of tracers in the Rockall Trough/shelf-edge area west of Scotland and a low penetration of tracers onto the shelf. These results are discussed in relation to the observed distribution of 0-group juveniles and to indices of year-class strength – in particular, in relation to the 1995 year class, which is the highest year-class estimate of blue whiting on record.     

Transport and survival processes of eggs and larvae of jack mackerel <Emphasis Type="Italic">Trachurus japonicus</Emphasis> in the East China Sea

ABSTRACT:   Recent surveys showed substantial aggregation of larvae of jack mackerel in the southern East China Sea, indicating intensive spawning grounds near Taiwan. A numerical model was applied to investigate transport and survival processes of eggs and larvae of jack mackerel from the spawning area to the nurseries. The results show that: (i) the distributions of larvae simulated by the model agreed well with those obtained by field survey; (ii) the stock of jack mackerel in the Sea of Japan is composed of both groups from north of Taiwan and from the western coast of Kyushu. It takes more than two months for the former to reach the Sea of Japan, while it is within 40 days for the latter; and (iii) large proportions of the eggs and larvae spawned off the north of Taiwan are transported rapidly to the Pacific side of Kyushu by the Kuroshio Current, and the rest slowly to the east or north-east along the continental slope in the East China Sea. In contrast to the larval flux, survivors are more abundant in the northern East China Sea than in the Pacific Ocean, indicating that survival in the northern East China Sea would determine the jack mackerel stock in Japan.     

Distribution of jack mackerel (Trachurus japonicus) larvae and juveniles in the East China Sea, with special reference to the larval transport by the Kuroshio Current

Horizontal distribution patterns of jack mackerel (Trachurus japonicus) larvae and juveniles were investigated in the East China Sea between 4 February and 30 April 2001. A total of 1549 larvae and juveniles were collected by bongo and neuston nets at 357 stations. The larvae were concentrated in the frontal area between the Kuroshio Current and shelf waters in the upstream region of the Kuroshio. The abundance of small larvae (<3 mm notochord length) was highest in the southern East China Sea (SECS) south of 28°N, suggesting that the principal spawning ground is formed in the SECS from late winter to spring. Jack mackerel also spawned in the northern and central East China Sea (NECS and CECS, respectively), as some small larvae were also collected in these areas. In the SECS, the abundance of small larvae was highest in February and gradually decreased from March to April. The habitat temperature of small larvae in the SECS and CECS (20–26°C) was higher than that in the NECS (15–21°C), suggesting higher growth rates in the SECS and CECS than in the NECS. The juveniles (10‐ to 30‐mm standard length) became abundant in the NECS off the west coast of Kyushu Island and CECS in April and were collected in association with scyphozoans typical of the Kuroshio waters. However, juveniles were rarely collected in the SECS, where the small larvae were concentrated. Considering the current systems in the study area, a large number of the eggs and larvae spawned and hatched in the SECS would be transported northeastward by the Kuroshio and its branches into the jack mackerels’ nursery grounds, such as the shallow waters off the west coast of Kyushu and the Pacific coast of southern Japan.     

Coupling ecosystem and individual‐based models to simulate the influence of environmental variability on potential growth and survival of larval sprat (Sprattus sprattus L.) in the North Sea

To investigate the impact of changing environmental conditions in the North Sea on the distribution and survival of early life stages of a marine fish species, we employed a suite of coupled model components: (i) an Eulerian coupled hydrodynamic/ecosystem (Nutrients, Phyto‐, Zooplankton, Detritus) model to provide both 3‐D fields of hydrographical properties, and spatially and temporally variable prey fields; (ii) a Lagrangian transport model to simulate temporal changes in cohort distribution; and (iii) an individual‐based model (IBM) to depict foraging, growth and survival of fish early life stages. In this application, the IBM was parameterized for sprat (Sprattus sprattus L.) and included non‐feeding (egg and yolk‐sac larval) stages as well as foraging and growth subroutines for feeding (post‐yolk sac) larvae. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the angle of visual acuity, assimilation efficiency and the maximum food consumption rate were the most critical intrinsic model parameters. As an example, we applied this model system for 1990 in the North Sea. Results included not only information concerning the interplay of temperature and prey availability on larval fish survival and growth but also information on mechanisms underlying larval fish aggregation within frontal zones. The good agreement between modelled and in situ estimates of sprat distribution and growth rates in the German Bight suggested that interconnecting these different models provided an expedient tool to scrutinize basic processes in fish population dynamics.     

Ichthyoplankton-based spawning dynamics of blue mackerel (Scomber australasicus) in south-eastern Australia: links to the East Australian Current

We describe findings of three ichthyoplankton surveys undertaken along south‐eastern Australia during spring (October 2002, 2003) and winter (July 2004) to examine spawning habitat and dynamics of blue mackerel (Scomber australasicus). Surveys covered ～860 nautical miles between southern Queensland (Qld; 24.6°S) and southern New South Wales (NSW; 41.7°S), and were mainly centred on the outer shelf including the shelf break. Egg identifications were verified applying mtDNA barcoding techniques. Eggs (n = 2971) and larvae (n = 727; 94% preflexion) occurred both in spring and winter, and were confined to 25.0–34.6°S. Greatest abundances (numbers per 10 m²) of eggs (1214–7390) and larvae (437–1172) occurred within 10 nm shoreward from the break in northern NSW. Quotient analyses on egg abundances revealed that spawning is closely linked to a combination of bathymetric and hydrographic factors, with the outer shelf as preferred spawning area, in waters 100–125 m deep with mean temperatures of 19–20°C. Eggs and larvae in spring occurred in waters of the East Australian Current (EAC; 20.6–22.3°C) and mixed (MIX; 18.5–19.8°C) waters, with none occurring further south in the Tasman Sea (TAS; 16.0–17.0°C). Results indicate that at least some of the south‐eastern Australian blue mackerel stock spawns during winter‐spring between southern Qld and northern NSW, and that no spawning takes place south of 34.6°S due to low temperatures (<17°C). Spawning is linked to the EAC intrusion, which also facilitates the southward transport of eggs and larvae. Since spring peak egg abundances came from where the EAC deflects offshore, eggs and larvae are possibly being advected eastwards along this deflection front. This proposition is discussed based on recent data on blue mackerel larvae found apparently entrained along the Tasman Front.     

The recruitment process of the Barents Sea capelin (Mallotus villosus) stock, 2001–2003

Oceanographic and predation processes are important modulators of fish larvae survival and mortality. This study addresses the hypothesis that immature Norwegian spring‐spawning herring (Clupea harengus), when abundant in the Barents Sea, determine the capelin reproduction success through consumption of Barents Sea capelin (Mallotus villosus) larvae. Combining a hydrodynamic model and particle‐tracking individual‐based model, a realistic spatio‐temporal overlap between capelin larvae and predatory immature herring was modelled for the summer seasons of 2001–2003. Capelin larvae originating from western spawning grounds became widely dispersed during the summer season, whereas those originating from eastern spawning grounds experienced a rapid drift into the southeastern Barents Sea. Herring caused a 3% mortality of the capelin larvae population in 2001 and a 16% mortality in 2003, but the effect of predation from herring on capelin larvae was negligible in 2002. Despite a strong capelin larvae cohort and a virtual absence of predatory herring, the recruitment from the capelin 2002 year class was relatively poor from a long‐term perspective. We show that the choice of capelin spawning grounds has a major impact on the subsequent capelin larvae drift patterns, constituting an important modulator of the capelin larvae survival. Variation in drift patterns during the summer season is likely to expose the capelin larvae to a wide range of hazards, including predation from young cod, sandeel and other predators. Such alternative predators might thus have contributed to the poor capelin recruitment during 2001–2003, leading to the collapse of the capelin stock in the subsequent years.     

Early life history connectivity of Antarctic silverfish (Pleuragramma antarctica) in the Ross Sea

A recent population hypothesis for Antarctic silverfish (Pleuragramma antarctica), a critical forage species, argued that interactions between life history and circulation associated with glacial trough systems drive circumpolar distributions over the continental shelf. In the Ross Sea, aggregations of eggs and larvae occur under fast ice in Terra Nova Bay, and the hypothesis predicted that dispersing larvae encounter outflow along the western side of Drygalski Trough. The outflow advects larvae towards the shelf‐break, and mixing with trough inflow facilitates return toward the inner shelf. To examine the hypothesis, we compared samples of P. antarctica collected near Coulman Island in the outflow, along Crary Bank in the inflow, and a third set taken over the rest of the Ross Sea. We ruled out misidentification using an innovative genetic validation. Silverfish larvae comprised 99.5% of the catch, and the highest population densities were found in Drygalski Trough. The results provided no evidence to reject the population hypothesis. Abundance indices, back‐calculated hatching dates, length distributions and growth were congruent with a unified early life history in the western Ross Sea, constrained by cryopelagic early stages in Terra Nova Bay. By contrast, a sample in the Bay of Whales revealed much smaller larvae, suggesting either a geographically separate population in the eastern Ross Sea, or westward connectivity with larvae spawned nearby by fish sourced from troughs upstream in the Amundsen Sea. These results illustrate how hypotheses that integrate population structure with life history can provide precise spatial predictions for subsequent testing.     

Bio-physical modelling of the early life stages of haddock, Melanogrammus aeglefinus, in the North Sea

An individual-based modelling approach was developed to investigate the spatial and temporal patterns in the recruitment processes of North Sea haddock, Melanogrammus aeglefinus . The approach was based on the realization that the survivors to recruitment of an annual cohort are most probably not drawn at random from the initial population of eggs, but represent the fastest-growing individuals. Individual growth rates reflect the unique exposure of each larva to the environment along its drift trajectory. In this context, the environment refers to a wide range of factors affecting growth such as food, turbulence and temperature. A combination of a model of egg production by the adult stock, a particle-tracking scheme, and a model of larval growth and mortality rate was used to simulate the dispersal trajectories, and the survival of haddock larvae spawned at different times and locations on the continental shelf. The particle tracking was driven by flowfields from a climatological implementation of the Hamburg Shelf–Ocean Model (HAMSOM) for the North Sea and NE Atlantic. The system was able to resolve spatial and temporal patterns in the recruitment process and indicated that the surviving population of larvae was drawn from a restricted part of the spawning distribution. The results have the potential to guide the development of future conservation measures in fisheries management.     

Variability of larval Baltic sprat (Sprattus sprattus L.) otolith growth: a modeling approach combining spatially and temporally resolved biotic and abiotic environmental key variables

Plankton sampling was conducted in the Baltic to obtain sprat larvae. Their individual drift patterns were back‐calculated using a hydrodynamic model. The modelled positions along the individual drift trajectories were subsequently used to provide insight into the environmental conditions experienced by the larvae. Autocorrelation analysis revealed that successive otolith increment widths of individual larvae were not independent. Otolith increment width was then modelled using two different generalized additive model (GAM) analyses (with and without autocorrelation), using environmental variables determined for each modelled individual larval position as explanatory variables. The results indicate that otolith growth was not only influenced by the density of potential prey but was controlled by a number of simultaneously acting environmental factors. The final model, not considering autocorrelation, explained more than 80% of the variance of otolith growth, with larval age as a factor variable showing the strongest significant impact on otolith growth. Otolith growth was further explained by statistically significant ambient environmental factors such as temperature, bottom depth, prey density and turbulence. The GAM analysis, taking autocorrelation into account, explained almost 98% of the variability, with the previous otolith increment showing the strongest significant effect. Larval age as well as ambient temperature and prey abundance also had a significant effect. An alternative approach applied individual‐based model (IBM) simulations on larval drift, feeding, growth and survival starting as exogenously feeding larvae at the back‐calculated positions. The IBM results revealed optimal growth conditions for more than 97% of the larvae, with a tendency for our IBM to slightly overestimate larval growth.     

A study of spring-and autumn-spawned herring (Clupea harengus L.) larvae in the Norwegian Coastal Current during spring 1990

An intensive sampling program for yolk-sac herring larvae and microzooplankton was carried out in the main spawning area of Norwegian spring-spawning herring during March to April 1990 (between 62^o and 63^o30'N) to estimate their hatching period and the abundance of copepod eggs and nauplii. Additional investigations were carried out in the Skagerrak area during January-March and on the Norwegian Shelf in May to study the otolith microstructure of the herring larvae. In May both autumn- and spring-spawned herring larvae were found in the samples from the Norwegian Shelf. They were easily distinguished by differences in otolith microstructure. The pattern in increment widths in the otoliths of the autumn-spawned larvae indicated that these larvae had not been transported through the Skagerrak area, but more likely were carried directly from the northern North Sea across the Norwegian Trench and into the Norwegian Coastal Current system. The calculated hatching of the spring-spawned larvae sampled in May occurred significantly later than the observed hatching over the spawning grounds. The results suggest a mismatch between the abundance of first-feeding herring larvae and their prey organisms, resulting in a higher survival of those herring larvae hatching during the latest part of the spawning period. This coincides with a general increase towards the middle of April in the abundance of prey organisms, from 1 to 4 1^_1. There were no differences in otolith microstructure among spring-spawned herring larvae sampled on the shelf in May, indicating that these larvae originated from the same cohort and were well mixed throughout the whole shelf area.     

Modeling the effects of temperature on the survival and growth of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) through the first year of life

Temperature and body size are widely agreed to be the primary factors influencing vital rates (e.g., growth, mortality) in marine fishes. We created a biophysical individual‐based model which included the effects of body size and temperature on development, growth and mortality rates of eggs, larvae and juveniles of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua L.) in the North Sea. Temperature‐dependent mortality rates in our model were based on the consumption rate of predators of cod early‐life stages. The model predicted 35%, 53% and 12% of the total mortality to occur during the egg, larval and juvenile stages, respectively. A comparison of modeled and observed body size suggested that the growth of survivors through their first year of life is high and close to the growth rates in ad libitum feeding laboratory experiments. Furthermore, our model indicates that experiencing warmer temperatures during early life only benefits young cod (or theoretically any organism) if a high ratio exists between the temperature coefficients for the rate of growth and the rate of mortality. During the egg stage of cod, any benefit of developing more rapidly at warmer temperatures is largely counteracted by temperature‐dependent increases in predation pressure. In contrast, juvenile (age‐0) cod experiences a higher cumulative mortality at warmer temperatures in the North Sea. Thus, our study adds a new aspect to the ‘growth–survival’ hypothesis: faster growth is not always profitable for early‐life stages particularly if it is caused by warmer temperatures.     

Turbulent mixing and mesoscale distributions of late-stage fish larvae on the NW Shelf of Western Australia

Light traps were deployed to describe vertical and cross‐shelf distributions of late‐stage larval fishes during five cruises in each of the 1997/98 and 1998/99 summers in the region of the Gulf of Exmouth on the southern North West Shelf of Western Australia. At each light trap station on a cross‐shelf transect we measured water temperature, salinity and chlorophyll a and used vertical plankton tows to estimate zooplankton biomass and copepod abundance. Current meters were deployed on moorings near the transect and the data used to model flows and mixing on the NW Shelf and in the Gulf. The majority of reef, pelagic and baitfish larvae (81, 83 and 66% respectively) were collected at only two stations that marked the boundary between stratified waters offshore and well‐mixed water within the Gulf. Most baitfishes (primarily Spratelloides spp.) were captured by traps deployed near the seabed, while reef fishes (mostly pomacentrids, lethrinids and siganids) and pelagic species (mostly scombrids and carangids) were captured in traps deployed near surface. Catch composition varied between summers with 64% of baitfishes collected in the first summer, while the majority of reef and pelagic fishes (81 and 80% respectively) were captured in the second summer. Modelling of circulation showed that the velocity of tidal currents was enhanced by constriction of flow between NW Cape and South Muiron Island and by shallowing of the shelf. Flood‐tide intrusions of water allowed the thermocline to move up the continental shelf, upwelling cool nutrient‐rich water that was then mixed throughout the entire water column at stations in the mouth of the Gulf. This upwelling and mixing resulted in higher chlorophyll a concentrations and copepod abundances either as a result of local in situ growth or advection/aggregation processes, and may account for the great abundances of late‐stage fish larvae in the mouth of the Gulf.     

Climate,oceanography, and recruitment: the case of the Bay of Biscay anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus)

The Bay of Biscay anchovy has experienced, since 2001, a succession of low recruitments, resulting in the collapse of the stock in 2005; this has led to successive closures of the fishery. This study investigates the possible impact of different controlling factors [North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), East Atlantic (EA) pattern, turbulence, upwelling, and river flow] upon anchovy recruitment and fishery catches. Fifty‐five percent of the recruitment variability of this fishery can be explained by upwelling over the spawning area; this is related, in turn, to the EA pattern. The conceptual understanding of the system proposed for the Bay of Biscay anchovy suggests that negative EA periods are associated with northeasterly wind circulation, which produces weak upwelling over the continental shelf. This pattern results in hydrodynamic stability over the area, leading, probably, to adequate food availability. A positive EA (which extends onwards, from 1998) is associated with southwesterly winds and downwelling over the continental shelf; this leads, probably, to the dispersion of anchovy food and larvae, together with increasing mortality.     

Transport of larval jack mackerel (Trachurus japonicus) estimated from trajectories of satellite-tracked drifters and advective velocity fields obtained from sequential satellite thermal images in the eastern East China Sea

Transport processes of jack mackerel (Trachurus japonicus) larvae in the waters off the west coast of Kyushu in the eastern East China Sea, have been investigated using satellite‐tracked surface drifters and consecutive satellite thermal images. Trajectories of drifters describe northward flows over the continental shelf, eastward flows of the Kuroshio south‐west of Kyushu, and a weak clockwise gyre off the west coast of Kyushu. In particular, the clockwise gyre causes the entrainment of jack mackerel larvae into the waters off the west coast of Kyushu. Consecutive satellite thermal images help to elucidate the northward warm water intrusion from the Kuroshio front south‐west of Kyushu. Particle trajectories using sea surface current fields computed with the Maximum Cross Correlation (MCC) technique also reveal that the transport of jack mackerel larvae into the nursery ground off the west coast of Kyushu caused by the anti‐cyclonic gyre and the warm streamers are an important process for successful recruitment.     

Relative importance of gulf and shelf waters for spawning and recruitment of Australian anchovy, Engraulis australis, in South Australia

Gonosomatic indices and egg and larval densities observed from 1986 to 2001 suggest that the peak spawning season of the Australian anchovy (Engraulis australis) in South Australia occurs during January to March (summer and autumn). This coincides with the spawning season of sardine (Sardinops sagax) and the period when productivity in shelf waters is enhanced by upwelling. Anchovy eggs were abundant throughout gulf and shelf waters, but the highest densities occurred in the northern parts of Spencer Gulf and Gulf St Vincent where sea surface temperatures (SST) were 24–26°C. In contrast, larvae >10 mm total length (TL) were found mainly in shelf waters near upwelling zones where SSTs were relatively low (<20°C) and levels of chlorophyll a (chl a) relatively high. Larvae >15 mm TL were collected only from shelf waters near upwelling zones. The high levels of larval abundance in the upwelling zones may reflect higher levels of recruitment to later stages in these areas compared with the gulfs. The sardine spawns mainly in shelf waters; few eggs and no larvae were collected from the northern gulfs. The abundance of anchovy eggs and larvae in shelf waters increased when sardine abundance was reduced by large‐scale mortality events, and decreased as the sardine numbers subsequently recovered. We hypothesize that the upwelling zones provide optimal conditions for the survival of larval anchovy in South Australia, but that anchovy can only utilize these zones effectively when the sardine population is low. At other times, northern gulf waters of South Australia may provide a refuge for the anchovy that the sardine cannot utilize.     

The growth of larval cod and haddock in the Irish Sea: a model with temperature,prey size and turbulence forcing

We applied a physiological individual‐based model for the foraging and growth of cod (Gadus morhua) and haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) larvae, using observed temperature and prey fields data from the Irish Sea, collected during the 2006 spawning season. We used the model to estimate larval growth and survival and explore the different productivities of the cod and haddock stocks encountered in the Irish Sea. The larvae of both species showed similar responses to changes in environmental conditions (temperature, wind, prey availability, daylight hours) and better survival was predicted in the western Irish Sea, covering the spawning ground for haddock and about half of that for cod. Larval growth was predicted to be mostly prey‐limited, but exploration of stock recruitment data suggests that other factors are important to ensure successful recruitment. We suggest that the presence of a cyclonic gyre in the western Irish Sea, influencing the retention and/or dispersal of larvae from their spawning grounds, and the increasing abundance of clupeids adding predatory pressure on the eggs and larvae; both may play a key role. These two processes deserve more attention if we want to understand the mechanisms behind the recruitment of cod and haddock in the Irish Sea. For the ecosystem‐based management approach, there is a need to achieve a greater understanding of the interactions between species on the scale a fish stock is managed, and to work toward integrated fisheries management in particular when considering the effects of advection from spawning grounds and prey–predator reversal on the recovery of depleted stocks.     

Influence of larval transport and temperature on recruitment dynamics of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) across spatial scales of observation

The survival of fish eggs and larvae, and therefore recruitment success, can be critically affected by transport in ocean currents. Combining a model of early‐life stage dispersal with statistical stock–recruitment models, we investigated the role of larval transport for recruitment variability across spatial scales for the population complex of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua). By using a coupled physical–biological model, we estimated the egg and larval transport over a 44‐year period. The oceanographic component of the model, capable of capturing the interannual variability of temperature and ocean current patterns, was coupled to the biological component, an individual‐based model (IBM) that simulated the cod eggs and larvae development and mortality. This study proposes a novel method to account for larval transport and success in stock–recruitment models: weighting the spawning stock biomass by retention rate and, in the case of multiple populations, their connectivity. Our method provides an estimate of the stock biomass contributing to recruitment and the effect of larval transport on recruitment variability. Our results indicate an effect, albeit small, in some populations at the local level. Including transport anomaly as an environmental covariate in traditional stock–recruitment models in turn captures recruitment variability at larger scales. Our study aims to quantify the role of larval transport for recruitment across spatial scales, and disentangle the roles of temperature and larval transport on effective connectivity between populations, thus informing about the potential impacts of climate change on the cod population structure in the North Sea.