自适应加权最小二乘支持向量机的空调负荷预测

为了提高建筑空调负荷的预测精度,在分析空调负荷主要影响因素的基础上提出了一种基于自适应加权最小二乘支持向量机(AWLS-SVM)的建筑空调负荷预测方法。该方法根据预测误差的统计特性,采用基于改进正态分布加权规则,自适应地赋予每个建模样本不同的权值,以克服异常样本点对模型性能的影响。建模过程中采用粒子群优化(PSO)算法对模型参数进行优化,以进一步提高模型预测精度。基于DeST模拟数据将AWLS-SVM方法应用于南方地区某办公建筑的逐时空调负荷预测中,并与径向基神经网络(RBFNN)模型、LS-SVM模型及WLS-SVM模型作比较,其平均预测绝对误差分别降低了51.84 %、13.95 %和3.24 %,并进一步基于实际空调负荷数据将该方法应用于另一办公建筑的逐日空调负荷预测中。预测结果表明：AWLS-SVM预测的累积负荷误差为4.56 MW,亦优于其他3类模型,证明了AWLS-SVM具有较高的预测精度和较好的泛化能力,是建筑空调负荷预测的一种有效方法。     

基于时间序列SVR模型的玉米价格预测研究

研究旨在运用时间序列和支持向量回归(support vector regression,SVR)理论,建立短期玉米价格预测模型,为玉米市场监测预警提供技术支持与决策依据。本研究根据玉米价格序列波动的非线性特征,以河南省2010年1月1日—2019年6月30日的月度数据为研究对象,结合混沌性时间序列与SVR理论,研究一种短期玉米价格预测模型。通过相空间重构的方法对价格序列进行处理,利用重构后的数据训练模型,运用网格交叉验证(GridSearchCV)对研究模型进行优化。得到一种基于时间序列支持向量回归的玉米价格预测模型。将研究模型的预测结果进行对比分析,结果显示,研究模型的预测值更贴近真实值,其平均相对误差(MRE)和均方根误差(RMSE)分别为0.006和20.57,优于传统支持向量回归模型的预测结果。研究模型可以为玉米价格预测提供方法依据,且相较于传统预测方法在精度方面具有优势。     

基于主成分回归的苹果可溶性固形物含量预测模型

为了更好地预测苹果的可溶性固形物含量（SSC），试验采用反射式光谱采集系统获取采后“富士”苹果的光谱反射率。分析了3种光谱预处理方法（标准正态变换、多元散射校正以及二阶导数）对预测模型的影响；利用主成分分析方法对预处理后的光谱数据进行降维，并基于选取的特征变量建立预测苹果SSC的回归模型。结果表明：采用主成分分析方法从全光谱的1 024个波长中选取了前23个主成分得分作为特征变量；基于特征变量建立的回归预测模型具有较好的预测能力，其预测集相关系数RP=0.908，均方根误差RMSEP=0.499。这表明采用光谱技术结合主成分回归预测苹果SSC是可行的。     

基于灰色多元线性计量经济模型的湖南省农村居民收入预测

针对单一预测模型精度不高以及预测结果不能体现经济变量关系的不足,将灰色GM(1,1)模型与多元线性计量经济模型加以耦合,建立了灰色多元线性计量经济模型,并利用该模型对湖南省农村居民人均纯收入进行了预测。灰色多元线性计量经济模型的预测精度不仅明显高于单一的灰色GM(1,1)模型和多元线性回归模型,而且预测结果也能体现经济变量之间的关系。预测结果表明,未来几年湖南省农村居民人均纯收入逐年增长,但增长的速度较为缓慢。最后,给出了几点调控湖南省农村居民收入差距的建议。     

大型商场建筑夏季冷负荷动态预测模型

夏季建筑冷负荷的正确预测是实现大型复杂中央空调优化运行、节能降耗的关键。笔者探讨了商场建筑冷负荷的主要影响因素,确定了建筑动态冷负荷预测模型的输入,提出了夏季基于新风机组供电频率的商场顾客率间接测量方法,解决了商场内顾客量难以检测的难题。还提出了AFC-HCMAC神经网络预测模型算法,实现了大型商场建筑冷负荷的动态预测。仿真结果表明:顾客率在商场冷负荷预测中占有重要地位,在冷负荷预测模型中增加商场顾客率可显著提高预测精度;AFC-HCMAC神经网络预测算法与传统的HCMAC神经网络算法比较,可有效降低神经网络节点数,提高预测精度。     

住宅建筑能耗基准确定及用能评价新方法

针对当前建筑能耗基准确定及用能评价方法仍不完善的现状,提出了一种适用于住宅建筑的新方法。通过灰色关联分析确定了不同影响因素(即特征参数)与建筑能耗的关联度,将关联度作为该因素的权值并结合聚类分析对建筑进行合理分类。在此基础上采用累积频率分布法确定了每类建筑的能耗基准值,并对建筑住户进行用能评价。为验证该方法的可行性,将其应用于日本建筑学会所建立的住宅建筑能耗数据库,为聚类后的每类建筑确定了相应的能耗基准并对住户进行了用能评价。结果表明该方法能够综合考虑不同特征参数的影响大小,科学合理地对建筑细化分类,根据分类后的基准评价能够更好地评估住户的节能潜力并提供可行的节能建议。     

茶叶干燥过程水分含量的近红外光谱检测方法研究

水分含量是衡量茶叶干燥过程中品质的最重要因素之一,采用近红外光谱分析技术分析茶叶干燥过程水分含量。首先,采用便携式近红外光谱检测系统采集茶叶干燥过程样本的光谱,采用标准正态变量变换(SNV)预处理光谱;然后,比较应用全光谱偏最小二乘模型(PLS)、遗传偏最小二乘模型(GA-PLS)、竞争性自适应加权抽样偏最小二乘模型(CARS-PLS)建立模型,采用交互验证优化模型。结果显示,CARS-PLS模型预测性能最佳,结果优于PLS和GA-PLS模型;CARS-PLS模型优选的变量数为11,变量数仅为全光谱变量数的2.1%,预测集的Rp=0.990 7,RMSEP=0.574。结果表明,采用近红外光谱技术结合合适的化学计量学方法评价茶叶干燥过程的水分含量具有可行性,为茶叶干燥过程品质的数字化、智能化监控提供方法。     

气象参数对成都地区办公建筑能耗的影响及预测

气象参数是影响建筑热环境和供暖空调能耗的主要因素之一。基于成都地区1971—2000年共30 a的历史观测数据，生成了建筑能耗模拟软件EnergyPlus所需要的逐时气象数据文件。比较分析了该地区30 a干球温度、太阳辐射等各气象参数月均值的变化，模拟分析了该地区建筑的采暖、制冷及总能耗，利用多元回归建立了建筑能耗与气象参数之间的关系式，并检验了该关系式的准确性。结果表明：成都地区办公建筑能耗变化与各气象参数没有呈现明显的规律性；建筑月总能耗与各气象参数呈纯二次多项式关系，月采暖能耗、月制冷能耗与各气象参数呈交叉二项式关系；建筑月能耗回归模型能够较准确地预测建筑月能耗与各气象参数的关系，且月采暖能耗和月制冷能耗回归模型预测的准确性优于月总能耗模型。     

厚墙体日光温室气温变化特征及预测方法研究

为探求内蒙古高寒地区日光温室小气候变化特征及预测预报方法,利用内蒙古赤峰市宁城县2012-2013 年度春、秋、冬季日光温室内外气温资料,分析不同季节（春季、秋季、冬季）、不同天气条件（晴天、阴天）、一日内不同时段（白天、夜间）温室内气温变化特征和增温保温效应及温室内气温的变化与一日时间变化、室外气温的相关性,在此基础上,建立了温室气温日变化及最低气温的预测模型,并对模型的准确率进行了验证。结果表明：模型拟合的准确率较高,可为厚墙体日光温室气象服务提供技术支撑。     

黑龙江省三种水稻热量指数预测方法的对比研究

旨在选出一套适合黑龙江不同区域水稻低温冷害预测方法,为相关部门制定粮食生产和调整农作物种植结构提供科学依据。选择黑龙江省11个水稻农气观测站为研究对象,利用1971—2016年的气温资料、74类大气环流资料、水稻发育期数据,将黑龙江省划分为东、西、南3个区域,分别建立逐步回归预测模型、GM(1,1)灰色预测模型和均生函数预测模型,预测黑龙江水稻生育期总热量指数并进行对比分析。结果表明：建立的3种预测模型通过了残差检验,1971—2010年拟合平均准确率均在95%以上,结果差异不大;2011—2016年的试报准确率为85%~99%,其中GM(1,1)灰色预测模型准确率(97%~99%)高于逐步回归预测模型(91%~97%)和均生函数预测模型(85%~95%)。通过3种预测方法对比结果显示,GM(1,1)灰色预测模型模拟效果最好。     

Location of a high-lysine gene and the DDT-resistance gene on barley chromosome 7

Summary The high-lysine gene in Risø mutant 1508 conditions an increased lysine content in the endosperm via a changed protein composition, a decreased seed size, and several other characters of the seed. The designation lys3a, lys3b, and lys3c, is proposed for the allelic high-lysine genes in three Risø mutants, nos 1508, 18, and 19. Linkage studies with translocations locate the lys3 locus in the centromere region of chromosome 7. A linkage study involving the loci lys3 and ddt (resistance to DDT) together with the marker loci fs (fragile stem), s (short rachilla hairs), and r (smooth awn) show that the order of the five loci on chromosome 7 from the long to the short chromosome arm is r, s, fs, lys3, ddt. The distance from locus r to locus ddt is about 100 centimorgans.     

A note on the origin of Kalanchoë x vadensis Boom & Zeilinga (Crassulaceae)

Summary K x vadensis is a hybrid of K. blossfeldiana and K. marmorata obtained after doubling the number of chromosomes.     

Simultaneous Determination of Four Phenolic Acids in Radix Salviae Miltiorrhizae Formula Granules by QAMS

[Objectives]This study aimed to establish a QAMS(quantitative analysis of multi-components by single-marker)method for simultaneous determination of four phenol...     

Avoidance of leaf rust fungi in wild relatives of cultivated cereals

Summary Avoidance of rust fungi that was based on poor appressorium induction was previously found in Hordeum chilense. In the present study 95 accessions of Triticeae were screened for avoidance of Puccinia hordei. The percentage of appressorium formation per germinated spore ranged from 6 to 90%. On none of the 41 accessions of Aegilops, Agropyron, Elymus, Secale, Thinopyrum or Triticum studied was the rate of appressorium formation lower than 25%. Lower rates of appressorium formation were, however, found on accessions of wild barley species Hordeum brachyantherum, H. marinum, H. parodii and H. secalinum. Its implications in cereal breeding are discussed.     

Present status and future strategy in breeding faba beans (Vicia Faba L.) for resistance to biotic and abiotic stresses

Progress is being made, mainly by ICARDA but also elsewhere, in breeding for resistance to Botrytis, AScochyta, Uromyces, and Orobanche; and some lines have resistance to more than one pathogen. The strategy is to extend multiple resistance but also to seek new and durable forms of resistance. Internationally coordinated programs are needed to maintain the momentum of this work.Tolerance of abiotic stresses leads to types suited to dry or cold environments rather than broad adaptability, but in this cross-pollinated species, the more hybrid vigor expressed by a cultivar, the more it is likely to tolerate various stresses.     

Water Extraction Process of Chinese Herbal Compound Man Gan Ning

[Objectives]To optimize the water extraction process of Chinese Herbal Compound Man Gan Ning and establish a method for its extraction and content determination...     

Mechanisms and diversity of resistance to sorghum shoot fly,Atherigona soccata

Sorghum shoot fly, Atherigona soccata, is one of the important pests of postrainy season sorghums. Of the 90 sorghum genotypes evaluated for resistance to this pest, RHRB 12, ICSV 713, 25026, 93046 and 25027, IS 33844‐5, Giddi Maldandi and RVRT 3 exhibited resistance in postrainy season, while ICSB 463, Phule Anuradha, RHRB 19, Parbhani Moti, ICSV 705, PS 35805, IS 5480, 5622, 17726, 18368 and 34722, RVRT 1, ICSR 93031 and Dagidi Solapur showed resistance in rainy season, suggesting season‐specific expression of resistance to A. soccata. ICSB 461, ICSB 463, Phule Yasodha, M 35‐1, ICSV 700, 711, 25010, 25019 and 93089, IS 18662, Phule Vasudha, IS 18551 and 33844‐5 and Barsizoot had fewer deadhearts than plants with eggs across seasons, suggesting antibiosis as one of the resistance mechanism. Five genotypes exhibited resistance with high grain yield across seasons. Correlation, path and stepwise regression analyses indicated that leaf glossiness, seedling vigour, trichome density, oviposition and leaf sheath pigmentation were associated with the expression of resistance/susceptibility to shoot fly, and these can be used as marker traits to select and develop shoot fly‐resistant sorghums.     

Pollen and pollination experiments. III. The viability of apple and pear pollen as affected by irradiation and storage

Summary Apple and pear pollen was irradiated with doses of 0, 50, 100, 250 and 500 krad (gamma rays) and stored at 4°C and 0–10% r.h. From the in-vitro germination percentages an average LD 50 dose of about 220 krad was estimated. For both irradiated and untreated pollen a close and corresponding lineair relationship existed between germination percentage and pollen tube growth.Irradiated pollen was much more sensitive to dry storage conditions than untreated pollen, resulting in less germination and more bursting. Apparently, irradiation caused the pollen cell membrane to lose its flexibility faster than normal. Rehydration of dry-stored, irradiated pollen in water-saturated air restored germination percentages up to their initial levels. The importance of this procedure in germination trials is stressed.     

Cytoplasmic male sterility,resistance to gall mite and mildew,and season of leafing out in black currants

Summary Cytoplasmic male sterility (cms) is described in the F₁ hybrids Ribes × carrierei (R. glutinosum albidum × R. nigrum) and R. sanguineum × R. nigrum. In backcrosses to R. nigrum, progenies with R. glutinosum cytoplasm were either all male sterile, or segregated for full male fertility (F) and complete (S) and partial (I) male sterility. Ratios of F:I+S suggested that two linked genes controlled cms, F plants being dominant for one (Rf ₁) and recessive for the other (Rf ₂).Segregation for cms in relation to three linded genes, Ce (resistance to the gall mite, Cecidophyopsis ribes), Sph ₃(resistance to American gooseberry mildew, Sphaerotheca mors-uvae) and Lf ₁(one of two dominant additive genes controlling early season leafing out) indicated that Rf ₁and Rf ₂were in this linkage group. The gene order and approximate crossover values appeared to be: % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafiart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXafv3ySLgzGmvETj2BSbqef0uAJj3BZ9Mz0bYu% H52CGmvzYLMzaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqr1ngBPrgifHhDYfgasa% acOqpw0xe9v8qqaqFD0xXdHaVhbbf9v8qqaqFr0xc9pk0xbba9q8Wq% Ffea0-yr0RYxir-Jbba9q8aq0-yq-He9q8qqQ8frFve9Fve9Ff0dme% aabaqaciGacaGaamqadaabaeaafaaakeaacaWGdbGaamyzamaamaaa% baGaaiiiaiaacccacaGGWaGaaiOlaiaacgdacaGG0aGaaiiiaiaacc% caaaGaaiiiaiaacccacaGGGaGaamOuaiaadAgaliaaigdakmaamaaa% baGaaiiiaiaacccacaGGGaGaaiiiaiaaccdacaGGUaGaaiOmaiaacs% dacaGGGaGaaiiiaiaacccacaGGGaGaaiiiaaaacaWGsbGaamOzaSGa% aGOmaOWaaWaaaeaacaGGGaGaaiiiaiaacccacaGGGaGaaiiiaiaacc% cacaGGGaGaaiiiaiaacccaaaGaamitaiaadAgaliaaigdakmaamaaa% baGaaiiiaiaacccacaGGGaGaaiiiaiaacccacaGGGaGaaiiiaiaacc% cacaGGGaGaaiiiaiaacccacaGGGaaaaiaadofacaWGWbGaamiAaSGa% aG4maaaa!6E4D!\[Ce\underline { 0.14 } Rf1\underline { 0.24 } Rf2\underline { } Lf1\underline { } Sph3\]. Crossover values of 0.36 for Ce-Lf ₁, and 0.15 for Lf ₁-Sph ₃were estimated from the relative mean differences in season of leafing out between seedlings dominant and recessive for Ce and Sph ₃.It is suggested that competitive disadvantage of lf ₁-carrying gametes and/or zygotes at low temperatures may be implicated in the almost invariable deficit of plants dominant for the closely linked mildew resistance allele Sph ₃. Poor performance of lf ₁- (and possibly lf ₂-) carrying gametes and young zygotes during periods of low temperature at flowering might also account for the liability of some late season cultivars and selections to premature fruit drop (running off).     

Optimization of Extraction Technology and Determination of Content of Total Phenols of Leaves in Acanthopanax giraldii Harms

[Objectives] To determine the optimum extraction technology for total phenols of leaves in Acanthopanax giraldii Harms.[Methods]The single factor test and ortho...