Predicting suitable habitats of endangered Juniperus procera tree under climate change in Northern Ethiopia

Juniperus procera is the most preferred tree in Ethiopia. It is an endangered tree species enumerated in IUCN red list. Accordingly, this study investigates the future suitable habitat of the J. procera under climate change in northern Ethiopia. Three occurrence districts were visited and 124 presence observations were taken. The records, altitude, and 19 bio-climatic variables were used to run a species distribution model to account for the climate change effect on the species. Maxent, Diva-GIS, and ArcGIS were used to evaluate the outputs. Future suitable habitats were projected into mid and end-century time frames with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and 8.5) under one General Circulation Model, namely the Climate Community System Model Version-4. Our results showed that minimum temperature of the coldest month and altitude are main predictors of the distribution of the species. Suitable habitats of the species will be decreased by 79.84%, 91.17%, 75.31%, and 96.25% in Mid-century RCP2.6, Mid-century RCP8.5, End-century RCP2.6, and End-century RCP8.5 when compared with current distributions, respectively. This indicates that climate change will affect the future distribution of the species. The results of the study indicate that appropriate management strategies must be taken to ensure the long-term survival of J. procera.     

基于最大熵模型的气候变化情景下澳洲坚果潜在适宜生境研究

为了研究气候变化情景下澳洲坚果在云南省的潜在适宜生境,采用当前和未来2050年RCP45气候变化情景下的19个生物气候因子及最大熵模型MaxEnt进行澳洲坚果生境模型构建,并进行适宜生境等级划分及空间变化特点分析。结果表明,2050年RCP45气候变化情景下3个等级的适宜生境大体上仍然保持与当前相似的空间分布格局,即高度适宜生境主要分布在云南西南部和南部,中、低度适宜生境分布在高度适宜生境区以北及以东区域。未来气候变化引起高度和中度适宜生境面积小幅度缩减(5.6%和2.4%),低度适宜生境面积增加22.5%。气候变化同时引起高度适宜生境景观格局破碎化。未来气候变化引起的澳洲坚果在云南高、中度适宜种植区总面积略有缩减,虽幅度不大,但空间分布上发生位移,且呈现破碎化趋势,产业规划时应考虑产业生命周期内气候变化造成对适宜生境迁移的影响。     

Can habitat prediction models contribute to the restoration and conservation of the threatened tree Abies pinsapo Boiss. in Southern Spain?

We examined the association between habitat variables and the relative impacts of topographic microclimates as a valuable tool for restoration and conservation of Abies pinsapo in southern Spain. We used presence–absence data from A. pinsapo and 79 environmental variables and biomod species distribution models to describe the current and future species habitat across the Sierra de las Nieves Natural Park (southern Spain). A. pinsapo habitat was most strongly associated with microtopographic (solar incidence) and temperature variables, indicating climate-driven changes in microhabitat use. Most of the temperature variation among the study site was attributable to topographic microclimates rather than regional temperature differences, such that differences in microhabitat associations occurred principally between north- and south-facing slopes within the same region. The current potential distribution suggests that around 8.7% (56.44 km²) of the study area is highly suitable for A. pinsapo, with 9.7% (62.84 km²) being moderately suitable. Under different global circulation models and climate change scenarios, the net decrease in suitable habitat is predicted to be 93% of the current distribution by 2040, disappearing altogether by 2099. Our findings also show a sharp reduction of potential restoration areas (1.8% of the current areas). Microclimatic variation generated by the topography offers the microclimate-driven locations of habitat suitability which could shape species’ distribution restoration actions and their responses to environmental change. The approach presented here can provide a rapid assessment of the future conservation status of other important forest tree species in Spain, improving our understanding of the vulnerability of endangered species under climate change, and can be an effective tool for biodiversity conservation, restoration, and management.

     

气候变化情景下流苏香竹潜在分布区预测

流苏香竹（Chimonocalamus fimbriatus）是云南特有珍稀竹种，主要分布于云南西南部。文章以野外调查获取的流苏香竹分布信息为主，运用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）同时结合地理信息系统（ArcGIS），基于19个气候因子，预测其在当前及未来气候变化情景下的潜在分布区。结果表明：当前流苏香竹的高适生区和中适生区主要分布于德宏州、保山市和临沧市等地，除迪庆州、丽江市和昭通市外，云南其他区域均有低适生区零星分布。在未来2050s和2070s的2个时间段，基于2种不同共享社会经济路径（SSP1-2.6和SSP5-8.5），流苏香竹的高适生区面积呈减少的趋势，尤其是SSP5-8.5路径下，高适生区面积仅为当前的12.51%（2050s）和18.63%（2070s）；中、低适生区在SSP1-2.6路径下，显著扩张（2050s）或略微扩张（2070s），在SSP5-8.5路径下，则大幅收缩。流苏香竹野外实际分布区及其潜在分布区均以斑块状为主，可能与云南特殊的地形、地貌有关。影响流苏香竹分布的主导气候因子为最湿月份降水量、最暖月份最高温度、最干季度降水量和平均气温日较差。流苏香竹对气候变化比较敏感，根据其野外分布状况，建议以就地保护为主、迁地保护为辅，在其潜在适生区内适当引种栽培。     

Assessing forest vulnerability and the potential distribution of pine beetles under current and future climate scenarios in the Interior West of the US

The aim of our study was to estimate forest vulnerability and potential distribution of three bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) under current and projected climate conditions for 2020 and 2050. Our study focused on the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis), and pine engraver (Ipspini). This study was conducted across eight states in the Interior West of the US covering approximately 2.2 million km² and encompassing about 95% of the Rocky Mountains in the contiguous US. Our analyses relied on aerial surveys of bark beetle outbreaks that occurred between 1991 and 2008. Occurrence points for each species were generated within polygons created from the aerial surveys. Current and projected climate scenarios were acquired from the WorldClim database and represented by 19 bioclimatic variables. We used Maxent modeling technique fit with occurrence points and current climate data to model potential beetle distributions and forest vulnerability. Three available climate models, each having two emission scenarios, were modeled independently and results averaged to produce two predictions for 2020 and two predictions for 2050 for each analysis. Environmental parameters defined by current climate models were then used to predict conditions under future climate scenarios, and changes in different species’ ranges were calculated. Our results suggested that the potential distribution for bark beetles under current climate conditions is extensive, which coincides with infestation trends observed in the last decade. Our results predicted that suitable habitats for the mountain pine beetle and pine engraver beetle will stabilize or decrease under future climate conditions, while habitat for the western pine beetle will continue to increase over time. The greatest increase in habitat area was for the western pine beetle, where one climate model predicted a 27% increase by 2050. In contrast, the predicted habitat of the mountain pine beetle from another climate model suggested a decrease in habitat areas as great as 46% by 2050. Generally, 2020 and 2050 models that tested the three climate scenarios independently had similar trends, though one climate scenario for the western pine beetle produced contrasting results. Ranges for all three species of bark beetles shifted considerably geographically suggesting that some host species may become more vulnerable to beetle attack in the future, while others may have a reduced risk over time.     

基于MaxEnt模型的毛红椿适生区预测

[目的]了解环境因子对毛红椿适生区分布的影响,为其资源保护、引种及其人工林的发展提供参考。[方法]基于MaxEnt模型能利用现存不完整、小样本、离散型分布数据构建物种适生区预测模型,用受试者工作曲线线下面积(AUC)检验预测模型的精度,面积越大精度越高等优点,本研究应用毛红椿在云南的分布数据及1个地型因子和6个气候因子,来构建其适生区分布模型。[结果]毛红椿适生区分布MaxEnt模型平均训练AUC和平均测试AUC分别为0.891、0.885,说明对毛红椿适生区的预测是可靠的;降水量变异系数和最干季度降水量是决定毛红椿适生区分布的主要因子,年均气温变化范围、最冷季度平均气温、最湿季度降水量、最冷季度降水量是次要因子。在当代和未来(2050S、2070S)气候变暖条件下(RCP2.6情景),云南省和全国适生区面积计算结果直观、定量的反应了全球变暖对毛红椿适生区变迁的影响。[结论]预测云南省及全国的毛红椿适生区随全球变暖而小幅萎缩。     

气候变化情景下河北省3个优势树种适宜分布区预测

【目的】探究河北省3个优势树种分布与气候因子的关系,并进行适宜分布区预测,以期为评估气候变化的影响及制定适宜未来气候变化的森林经营策略提供理论依据。【方法】依据河北省森林资源调查数据,选取华北落叶松、蒙古栎和油松这3个主要树种,采用ClimateAP气候模型生成当前及未来(2040—2069年和2070—2099年)与降水和温度相关的10个气候因子,利用MaxEnt生态位模型和基于3个气候变化情景(温室气体最低排放,RCP2.6;中度稳定排放,RCP4.5;高度排放,RCP8.5)的一致性预测,模拟3个树种当前和未来的潜在适宜分布区,并采取响应曲线分析主要气候因子对3个树种适宜分布区的影响。【结果】3个树种MaxEnt模型的受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC值)都大于0.85,具有较好的预测能力;当前3个树种主要适宜分布在燕山和太行山地区;影响3个树种分布的主导气候因子存在差异,华北落叶松主要受小于0℃年积温和湿季降水量的影响,蒙古栎则主要受最热月平均气温、Hargreaves水分亏缺和湿季降水量的影响,而最热月平均气温、湿季降水量、大于5℃年积温和年均气温是影响油松分布的主要气候因子;一致性预测表明,在2040—2069年,河北省华北落叶松分布面积明显扩大,蒙古栎分布面积变化较小,而油松分布面积显著缩小;在2070—2099年,3个树种的适宜分布面积都显著缩小,幅度均超过3%。【结论】随着气候变化,3个树种均有向高海拔地区迁移的趋势,但在经纬度方向上的分布变化不大。在未来3个树种的适宜分布区,采取人工手段(如造林)辅助树种扩散以适应气候变化,有利于提高森林生产力,构建健康稳定的森林生态系统。     

Potential redistribution of tree species habitat under five climate change scenarios in the eastern US

Global climate change could have profound effects on the Earth’s biota, including large redistributions of tree species and forest types. We used DISTRIB, a deterministic regression tree analysis model, to examine environmental drivers related to current forest-species distributions and then model potential suitable habitat under five climate change scenarios associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO₂. Potential shifts in suitable habitat for 76 common tree species in the eastern US were evaluated based on more than 100,000 plots and 33 environmental variables related to climate, soils, land use, and elevation. Regression tree analysis was used to devise prediction rules from current species–environment relationships. These rules were used to replicate the current distribution and predict the potential suitable habitat for more than 2100 counties east of the 100th meridian. The calculation of an importance value-weighted area score, averaged across the five climate scenarios, allowed comparison among species for their overall potential to be affected by climate change. When this score was averaged across all five climate scenarios, 34 tree species were projected to expand by at least 10%, while 31 species could decrease by at least 10%. Several species (Populus tremuloides, P. grandidentata, Acer saccharum, Betula papyrifera, Thuja occidentalis) could have their suitable habitat extirpated from US. Depending on the scenario, the optimum latitude of suitable habitat moved north more than 20 km for 38–47 species, including 8–27 species more than 200 km or into Canada. Although the five scenarios were in general agreement with respect to the overall tendencies in potential future suitable habitat, significant variations occurred in the amount of potential movement in many of the species. The five scenarios were ranked for their severity on potential tree habitat changes. Actual species redistributions, within the suitable habitat modeled here, will be controlled by migration rates through fragmented landscapes, as well as human manipulations.     

Estimating potential habitat for 134 eastern US tree species under six climate scenarios

We modeled and mapped, using the predictive data mining tool Random Forests, 134 tree species from the eastern United States for potential response to several scenarios of climate change. Each species was modeled individually to show current and potential future habitats according to two emission scenarios (high emissions on current trajectory and reasonable conservation of energy implemented) and three climate models: the Parallel Climate Model, the Hadley CM3 model, and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model. Since we model potential suitable habitats of species, our results should not be interpreted as actual changes in ranges of the species. We also evaluated both emission scenarios under an “average” future climate from all three models. Climate change could have large impacts on suitable habitat for tree species in the eastern United States, especially under a high emissions trajectory. Of the 134 species, approximately 66 species would gain and 54 species would lose at least 10% of their suitable habitat under climate change. A lower emission pathway would result in lower numbers of both losers and gainers. When the mean centers, i.e. center of gravity, of current and potential future habitat are evaluated, most of the species habitat moves generally northeast, up to 800 km in the hottest scenario and highest emissions trajectory. The models suggest a retreat of the spruce-fir zone and an advance of the southern oaks and pines. In any case, our results show that species will have a lot less pressure to move their suitable habitats if we follow the path of lower emissions of greenhouse gases. The information contained in this paper, and much more, is detailed on our website: http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/atlas.     

Spatial distribution and impacts of climate change on Milicia excelsa in Benin,West Africa

African teak(Milicia excelsa(Welw.) C.C.Berg) is an endangered multi-use species.Understanding the impact of climate change on the distribution of this species may improve the ability to anticipate or recognize its decline or expansion and to take appropriate conservation measures if necessary.Ecological niche modeling was projected in geographical space to study the current and future distribution of M.excelsa in Benin.MaxEnt was used to estimate the potential geographic distribution of the species under two Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP).Miroc 5 summaries and two RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios were used as predictor variables for projections of the geographic potential of this species.The performance of the model was assessed by the area under the curve(AUC),true skill statistics(TSS) and partial receiver operating characteristics(Partial ROC).From the results,M.excelsa was more a secondary species in the Guinean climatic zone and part of the Sudanian-Guinean and Sudanian climatic zone.The projections show a significant decrease in suitable habitats for the species from the two RCP scenarios.Only a part of the Guinean climatic zone remained suitable and few protected areas will conserve in situ M.excelsa.For the sustainable conservation of M.excelsa,it is essential to strengthen the protection of sacred forests located in the Guinean climatic zone.     

基于Maxent模型的美国西海岸树流感暴发风险时空分析

树流感即栎树猝死病（SOD）自从在美国发现以来,已经造成了美国加利福尼亚州树木大量死亡,并且扩散到了俄勒冈州。对树流感未来暴发风险区域的研究能够为树流感防控提供科学依据,同时为中国防治类似森林病虫害提供借鉴。联合国气候变化政府间专门委员会（IPCC）在第5次评估报告中指出,根据温室气体排放模式的不同未来气候变化有4种可能趋势。该研究基于现在的全球植被覆盖数据、过去的气候数据和未来4种不同排放模式下的气候数据,运用Maxent模型预测了北美西海岸地区在2000年、2050年、2070年树流感暴发风险区域。对预测结果的时空对比分析发现,北美西海岸地区未来树流感暴发高风险区域将会往北和西海岸地区扩张,在各种气候模式下扩张的情况不一样,其中相对于2000年,在RCP85排放模式下2070年北美西海岸地区的高风险区域将会增加174%。     

Assessing risks and uncertainties in forest dynamics under different management scenarios and climate change

Background: Forest management faces a climate induced shift in growth potential and increasing current and emerging new risks. Vulnerability analysis provides decision support based on projections of natural resources taking risks and uncertainties into account. In this paper we(1) characterize differences in forest dynamics under three management scenarios,(2) analyse the effects of the three scenarios on two risk factors, windthrow and drought stress, and(3) quantify the effects and the amount of uncertainty arising from climate projections on height increment and drought stress.Methods: In four regions in northern Germany, we apply three contrasting management scenarios and project forest development under climate change until 2070. Three climate runs(minimum, median, maximum) based on the emission scenario RCP 8.5 control the site-sensitive forest growth functions. The minimum and maximum climate run define the range of prospective climate development.Results: The projections of different management regimes until 2070 show the diverging medium-term effects of thinnings and harvests and long-term effects of species conversion on a regional scale. Examples of windthrow vulnerability and drought stress reveal how adaptation measures depend on the applied management path and the decision-maker's risk attitude. Uncertainty analysis shows the increasing variability of drought risk projections with time. The effect of climate projections on height growth are quantified and uncertainty analysis reveals that height growth of young trees is dominated by the age-trend whereas the climate signal in height increment of older trees is decisive.Conclusions: Drought risk is a serious issue in the eastern regions independent of the applied silvicultural scenario,but adaptation measures are limited as the proportion of the most drought tolerant species Scots pine is already high. Windthrow risk is no serious overall threat in any region, but adequate counter-measures such as species conversion, species mixture or reduction of target diameter can be taken. This simulation study of three silvicultural scenarios and three climate runs spans a decision space of potential forest development to be used for decision making. Which adaptation measures to counteract climate induced risks and uncertainty are to be taken is,however, a matter of individual risk attitude.     

The impact of climate change on fire risk in Daxing’anling,China

Daxing'anling is a key region for forest fire prevention in China.Assessing changes in fire risk in the future under multiple climatic scenarios will contribute to our understanding of the influences of climate change for the region and provide a reference for applying adaptive measures for fire management.This study analyzed the changes in fire weather indices and the fire season under four climate scenarios(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP6.0,RCP8.5)for 2021–2050 using data from five global climate models together with observation data.The results showed that the analog data could project the average state of the climate for a given period but were not effective for simulating extreme weather conditions.Compared with the baseline period(1971–2000),the period 2021–2050 was predicted to have an increase in average temperature of 2.02–2.65 °C and in annual precipitation 25.4–40.3 mm,while the fire weather index(FWI) was predicted to increase by6.2–11.2% and seasonal severity rating(SSR) by5.5–17.2%.The DMC(Duff moisture code),ISI(initial spread index),BUI(build-up index),FWI and SSR were predicted to increase significantly under scenarios RCP4.5,RCP6.0,and RCP8.5.Furthermore,days with high or higher fire danger rating were predicted to be prolonged by 3–6 days,with the change in the southern region being greater under scenarios RCP4.5,RCP6.0,and RCP8.5.     

The risk to Myrtaceae of Austropuccinia psidii,myrtle rust,in Mexico

Austropuccinia psidii is a biotrophic rust fungus that affects species from the Myrtaceae family. In Mexico, Myrtaceae is widely distributed in temperate, tropical and semi‐arid ecosystems, and includes 20 genera and 192 endemic and exotic species. Austropuccinia psidii has been present in Mexico for the last four decades; however, little is known about the distribution of this rust or the vulnerability of native and exotic Myrtaceae to infection. In this study, we used global occurrence records for the pandemic biotype of myrtle rust to model its current and future suitable habitat using a species distribution model, Maxent. We identified regions that are highly suitable for myrtle rust establishment, now and in the future (2050). Additionally, we identified the Myrtaceae species known to be susceptible to rust infection and that are currently distributed in areas with high rust habitat suitability. Thirty‐six susceptible plant species and 142 untested species are distributed within areas of suitable rust habitat and are considered potentially at risk of rust infection. Current suitable habitat is mainly restricted to the east coast of Mexico, with Veracruz, Puebla, Chiapas, Tabasco and Oaxaca being the most vulnerable regions to the rust under current and future climates. We encourage monitoring within these regions by surveying locations where the rust occurs and within areas with high suitable habitat to determine the threat to native ecosystems and industries reliant on Myrtaceae. We also recommend screening to test the susceptibility of Myrtaceae species with no known susceptibility rating.     

Assessing the vulnerability of a forest ecosystem to climate change and variability in the western Mediterranean sub-region of Turkey: future evaluation

This study evaluates the multifactorial spatial modelling used to assess vulnerability of the Du¨ zlerc?am?(Antalya) forest ecosystem to climate change.This was done to produce data,to develop tools to support decisionmaking and the management of vulnerable Mediterranean forest ecosystems affected by climate change,and to increase the ability of these forest ecosystems to adapt to global change.Based on regionally averaged future climate assessments and projected climate indicators,both the study site and the western Mediterranean sub-region of Turkey will probably become associated with a drier,hotter,more continental and more water-deficient climate.This analysis holds true for all future scenarios,with the exception of RCP4.5 for the period from 2015 to 2030.However,the present dry-sub humid climate dominating this sub-region and the study area shows a potential for change towards more dry climatology and for it to become semiarid between 2031 and 2050 according to the RCP8.5 high emission scenario.All the observed and estimated results and assessments summarized in this study show clearly that the densest forest ecosystem in the southern part of the study site,characterized by mainly Mediterranean coniferous and some mixed forest and maquis vegetation,will very likely be influenced by medium and high degrees of vulnerability to future environmental degradation,climate change and variability.     

Does future climate change facilitate expansion of evergreen broad-leaved tree species in the human-disturbed landscape of the Korean Peninsula? Implication for monitoring design of the impact assessment

To quantitatively assess future change of evergreen broad-leaved tree species’ distributions in human-disturbed landscapes of the Korean Peninsula under climate change, potential habitats (PHs) were projected for four important evergreen broad-leaved tree species (Quercus acuta, Castanopsis sieboldii, Machilus thunbergii, and Neolitsea sericea) by species distribution models (SDMs). The distribution data (presence/absence) of the target species in Korea and Japan were used as response variables for SDMs, and climatic data were used as explanatory variables. Three general circulation models under A2 emission scenarios were used as future climate scenarios for the years 2070–2099. Potential habitats masked by land-use data (PHLUs) were projected to assess the impact of anthropogenic activities. Highly accurate SDMs were obtained for all the target species. The current PHs were decreased to 21–35 % by the anthropogenic activities. Future PHLUs for all the target species were projected to increase by 2.0–18.5 times of current PHLUs. These results suggest that all the target species are applicable as indicator species for monitoring in the Korean Peninsula, even if anthropogenic effects are incorporated. Variation of the increasing rate was caused by the differences in the response to temperature changes. M. thunbergii responded sensitively to the increase of minimum temperature of coldest month and had a largest increase in PHLUs under future climate. Therefore, M. thunbergii is considered to be most appropriate species for monitoring the changes of horizontal distributions above all focal evergreen broad-leaved tree species.     

Lithuanian forests and climate change: possible effects on tree species composition

Outputs from the HadCM3 Global Climate Circulation Model according to scenarios A2 and B1 were used for climate change predictions in Lithuania. According to scenario A2, the annual temperature will increase by approximately 4.0 °C from 2061 to 2090, while scenario B1 predicts an increase of 2.0 °C. In contrast to scenario B1, scenario A2 predicts an annual increase in precipitation of 15–20 % at the end of the century. Based on the predicted climatic data for the two scenarios and climate maps by European Food Safety Authority for the EU, we created climate analogues for Lithuania for 2031–2060 and 2061–2090. These areas were overlain by the digital map of native tree species distributions in Europe, which was created from the European Forest Genetic Resources Programme database. If climate changes occur according to scenario B1, in 2031–2060, Lithuania’s climate will become suitable for approximately five to six alien species, such as Acer campestre, Acer pseudoplatanus, Fagus sylvatica, Populus nigra, and Prunus avium. In 2061–2090, these species will be joined by Sorbus domestica and Tilia platyphyllos. If climate changes occur according to scenario A2, at the end of the twenty-first century, Castanea sativa, Quercus pubescens, and Sorbus torminalis could expand this list. With respect to species dispersal rates, there is a high probability that the species A. campestre, A. pseudoplatanus, P. nigra, and P. avium will become immigrants to Lithuanian forests at the end of the twenty-first century. Approximately 20 new species native to Europe will be suitable for cultivation (scenario A2). Climate change will affect the distributions of native species too. An increase in the proportion of deciduous tree species (except Alnus incana) and some reduction in the proportion of conifers, Norway spruce (Picea abies) and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), are expected in Lithuanian forests.     

Range Expansion and Its Mechanisms in a Naturalized Bamboo Species,Phyllostachys pubescens,in Japan

Abstract

The distribution of Phyllostachys pubescens, introduced to Japan from China in 1736, has been expanding. The expansion was studied in Tanabe Town, Kyoto Pref., Central Japan. Long term expansion was traced using a topographic map, a land-use map and aerial photographs. Within the research region (21.35 km²), the number and total area of bamboo sites increased from 24 and 0.16 km² in 1953 to 174 and 3.04 km² in 1985. By contrast, the total area of tree sites decreased from 12.2 km² in 1953 to 8.5 km² in 1985. The average area of bamboo sites also increased from 0.67 ha in 1953 to 1.75 ha in 1985. The average rates of the current expansion, measured by censusing current and old culms in the front of 10 unmanaged bamboo sites, were 2.1 m yr^-1. Stand structure was detailed in a transitional area from a pure stand of P. pubescensto a mixed broadleaved forest. Stand structure was simpler in the area dominated by P. pubescens.Culms off! pubescenswere larger in the pure stand, and variations in DBH and height were smaller for the bamboo than for the trees in each sample site. P. pubescenshad a greater average crown length and higher canopy position. These traits allow P. pubescensto invade adjacent forests, form a uniform monolayer of foliage, and dominate competing vegetation. There was no evidence of seedling regeneration under the bamboo. More than two-thirds of the Japanese forest is secondary growth or young plantations of conifers, and in most of these, canopy height is lower than that of P. pubescens.The continuous area increment in bamboo from 1953 to 1985, positive current expansion rate in the front of unmanaged bamboo stands and the advantageous stand structure of bamboo suggest that the range expansion of P. pubescensin the secondary forest will continue in the future.     

A landscape and policy perspective on forest conversion: Long-tailed tit (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Aegithalos caudatus</Emphasis>) and the allocation of deciduous forests in southern Sweden

As resources allocated specifically for conservation are limited, there is a need to ensure conservation policy initiatives lead to effective conservation outcomes. In this study, we investigated the potential conservation benefits from alternative spatial allocations of old deciduous stands to a landscape dominated by coniferous production forests owned primarily by non-industrial private forest owners. As a target species, we used the long-tailed tit (Aegithalos caudatus), a species associated with deciduous forests and known to be sensitive to isolation. We used a previously published model based on empirical data on the occurrence of this species, to assess the probability of occurrence of the bird in a 4,000 km² area in southern Sweden for which we possess detailed spatial GIS data (kNN data) of tree species composition and age. We assessed alternative scenarios where old deciduous forest was allocated with or without respect to distance from existing old deciduous forests. Due to the long-tailed tit’s habitat requirement increasing the amount of old deciduous forests close to existing habitats was the most effective strategy. However, the potential advantages of this strategy may in fact be overturned in favor of the other scenarios if ownership structures and probable uptake rates of policy initiatives are also considered. If a policy initiative is targeted toward owners with properties in close proximity to existing suitable habitat, when compared to if all forest owners are targeted, a higher proportion of owners is needed to participate in order to achieve the same degree of habitat creation for the species. Here, we discuss the potential benefits for effective conservation policy formulation from integrating spatially explicit datasets and detailed ecological knowledge with land-ownership structures and policy uptake scenarios.     

Conservation status evaluation of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Berberis</Emphasis> species across the Karakoram Mountain Ranges,Pakistan using IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria

Berberis species are endangered, high-value medicinal plants in Pakistan with important eco-cultural, commercial and livelihood roles in mountain communities. To assess the geographical distribution of Berberis species across the Karakoram Mountain Ranges in Pakistan, we used IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria (2001) to calculate the extent of occurrence (EOO, <100 km²) and the area of occupancy (AOO, <10 km²) of Berberis pseudumbellata subsp. pseudumbellata and B. pseudumbellata subsp. gilgitica. Overgrazing and habitat loss were key population-limiting factors. The two subspecies had contrasting responses to temperature, elevation, precipitation and insect susceptibility. B. pseudumbellata subsp. gilgitica is endemic to Gilgit-Baltistan and grows in single-cropping zone (areas > 200 m a.s.l.). Status evaluation revealed that both subspecies meet the criteria set for critically endangered species. Prolonged disregard of its declining population trend might lead to its extinction; therefore, integrated conservation efforts are necessary.