落叶松人工林威布尔分布参数与林分因子模型的研究

以落叶松人工林２５８块标准地为材料，求解了各标准地威布尔分布概率密度函数参数。多数普遍随上层高、直径的增大而增大，随密度增大而降低，据此构建林分因子与参数、参数间拓广Ｒｉｃｈａｒｄｓ模型。通过精度、显著性、适用性、断面积平均直径等检验，参数模型与密度、上层高、直径模型结合最佳。模型可动态预测林分株数分布，为森林抚育间伐设计各生长阶段间伐方法、强度，预测林分蓄积等提供依据。     

蒙古栎林分直径Weibull分布参数估计和预测方法比较

【目的】比较Weibull直径分布参数估计和预测的不同方法在蒙古栎次生林经营中的适用性和精确性,为更好开展蒙古栎林经营提供理论依据和技术参数。【方法】以吉林省157块蒙古栎纯林为研究对象,运用Kolmogorov-Smirnov(K-S)检验和误差指数比较最大似然法、矩法和百分位法估计和预测蒙古栎纯林分Weibull三参数的优劣。首先分析评价最大似然法、矩法和百分位法3种参数估计方法;然后为预测林分分布变化,建立参数预测法、参数回收法和参数百分位法的估计参数与林分年龄、平均高、优势高和林分密度等林分因子之间的回归模型;最后将回归方程计算得出的各参数代入Weibull分布,以预测直径分布变化趋势。【结果】最大似然法、矩法和百分位法均较好地估计了蒙古栎纯林的直径分布,K-S检验的接受率在82.80%~96.18%之间,其中最大似然法的接受率最高;通过配对t检验比较3种估计方法,最大似然法的误差指数平均数在显著水平为0.05时显著性地小于其他2种方法。在预测蒙古栎林分直径分布时,通过K-S检验可知,百分位法的接受率为64.45%,均高于其他2种方法;通过配对t检验比较3种预测方法,参数百分位法在显著水平为0.1时比参数预测法和参数回收法更加精确。【结论】在估计蒙古栎林分直径分布时,最大似然法较矩法和百分位法效果好;在预测蒙古栎林分直径分布时,参数百分位法较参数预测法和参数回收法效果好。     

杉木人工林不同密度生长进程,测树因子变化规律的研究

文中以杉木人工林标地为材料,求解林分自然稀疏线、等树高线、等直径线数学模型参数。据各线参数和地位指数表编制出不同初始密度的林分生长过程表;不同初始密度林分,有着不同生长进程及测树因子量变关系及规律,了解和掌握这些关系、规律对于人工林的定向培育具有一定的指导意义。     

以相对直径为竞争指标的单木直径生长模型研究

选择了Richards,Logistic,Mitscherlich,Gompertz,Modified-Weibull 5个最为常用的单木直径生长理论方程作为基础方程,采取再次参数化的方法将与林木生长密切相关的地位指数(SI)、林分密度(N)、单木竞争指标——相对直径(RD)等因子引入方程,对马尾松人工林的单木直径生长模型进行了研究。结果表明,采用该方法得到的单木直径生长方程具有很好的适应性和很高的预估精度,因为该方程中包含了林木的相对直径RD,当令RD等于1.0时,单木的直径生长模型就反映了林分的平均直径生长,这为从单木生长模型向全林分生长模型的耦合提供了一条途径。     

造林密度对马尾松优良家系人工林生长及直径分布的影响

对4种不同造林密度马尾松(Pinus massoniana)优良家系人工林的林分生长及直径结构进行研究。结果表明,林分胸径、单株材积及两者的年均生长量均随密度增大明显减小;密度对林分蓄积量和树高的影响不显著。密度从低到高的数量成熟林龄分别为13年、12年、12年和11年,较广西工业原料林主伐林龄早。林分直径结构近似服从正态分布;2 500株/hm~2密度林分直径分布的偏度逐年增大,直径分布变异系数低,利于大径材的培育;4 500株/hm~2密度林分蓄积量大,适合培育短周期工业用材林。     

黄藤人工林茎长分布模型的建立

对广西大青山黄藤人工林固定样地进行调查和收集资料,选择Logistic、Weibull和Richards3种理论生长方程,采用两次曲线拟合法分别描述母茎长和萌茎长结构规律,旨在建立黄藤人工林茎长分布模型.研究结果表明：Logistic方程对于描述母茎长和萌茎长结构规律均适合,Weibull和Richards方程则分别适合于拟合母茎长和萌茎长的分布特征;通过比较拟合效果,分别建立了Weibull和Logistic方程中的b、c参数与林分因子相关的参数预测模型,结合林分生长模型研制了基于两次曲线拟合的茎长分布模型.经检验,所建立的黄藤人工林茎长分布模型预测精度高,可在生产上应用.     

四川盆地西缘柳杉人工林结构及生长预测的初步研究

运用多元统计分析的方法,研究了四川盆地西缘山地柳杉人工林的密度和直径—株数分布的规律,筛选出了影响林分密度的主导因子(林今年龄、地位指数和林分平均直径),并建立了林分密度预测模型。还根据西泽正久(1978)所提供的求解Weibull分布参数e的gamma和Cud数值表,对48块林令标准地的林木株数调查结果用Weibull分布函数进行了拟合。结果表明:有33块标准地的拟合结果经卡方检验达到极显著水牛(α=0.01),有10块标准地达显著水平(α=0.05),另有5块标准地的拟合结果则不符合weibull分布。在此基础上,对影响柳杉人上林Weibull分布函数的 b、c参数的林分结构因子进行了回归分析,并用易测林分结构因子建立了两个参数的预测模型。 通过建立上述预测模型,作者对柳杉人工林的结构和生长量进行了综合预测。经检验结果表明:本次研究所建立的预测模型达到精度要求,为森林资源预测、森林经营管理、抚育间伐提供科学依据。     

火炬松人工林直径分布和产量预测模型的研究

利用综合Ｇａｍａ密度函数研究火炬松人工林的结构规律，其标准地拟合率为８７．７８％，高于其它密度函数。根据综合Ｇａｍａ密度函数的４个参数与林分因子的相关性，建立其参数与林分因子的预估方程，配合火炬松生长模型，预测某一状态林分的结构和产量，其变异系数为０．１２９２，预测精度大于８５％     

落叶松天然林株数分布的研究与应用

以落叶松天然林１８９块标准地为材料，求解了各标准地威布尔分布概率密度函数参数。参数普遍随直径的增大而增大，随密度增大而降低。据此建立了林分因子与参数、参数间Ｒｉｃｈａｒｄｓ拓广模型。参数模型与密度、直径模型结合较佳；通过精度检验表明了Ｒｉｃｈａｒｄｓ拓广模型正确性。模型可动态预测林分株数分布，为森林抚育间伐设计各生长阶段间伐方法、强度、预测林分蓄积等提供依据。     

火炬松人工林直径分布和产量预测模型的研究

利用综合Ｇａｍａ密度函数研究火炬松人工林的结构规律，其标准地拟合率为８７．７８％，高于其它密度函数。根据综合Ｇａｍａ密度函数的４个参数与林分因子的相关性，建立其参数与林分因子的预估方程，配合火炬松生长模型，预测某一状态林分的结构和产量，其变异系数为０．１２９２，预测精度大于８５％。     

Characterising the diameter distribution of Sal plantations by comparing normal,lognormal and Weibull distributions at Tilagarh Eco-park,Bangladesh

For many years foresters have been using statistical probability density functions to describe and characterise stand structure. Predicting the current and future yields of a stand is essential for successful stand and timber management. Implicit prediction of current yield is accomplished by using diameter distribution methods. All diameter distribution yield systems predict the number of trees per unit area by diameter class. In this study, the normal, lognormal and the three-parameter Weibull probability density function were compared to characterise the diameter distributions of Sal (Shorea robusta) plantations grown at Tilagarh Eco-park, Bangladesh. Data from 70 plots, established in three plantations, were used for this study. The Weibull parameters were estimated by the maximum likelihood and moments estimator methods. A one-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov test was used for the goodness of fit for all models. The Kolmogorov–Smirnov test results showed that both lognormal and Weibull distributions were suitable to characterise the diameter distributions of Sal plantations in the study area and may be applicable for other Sal forests in Bangladesh.     

林分直径结构模拟与预测研究概述

从林分直径结构模拟预测模型的选择以及模型参数的求解方法2个方面,对林分直径结构模拟与预测模型的国内外研究现状进行了较为详细的论述,总结指出林分直径结构模型的研究正围绕参数法和非参数法2种方法展开,重点归纳总结了理论方程法、最相似回归法等几种主要模拟预测方法以及百分位法、回归法等常用的模型参数求解和预测方法,分别指出了各种模型及参数求解方法的优劣,并对当前研究工作存在的问题及今后研究的重点进行了讨论。本项研究着眼于实际应用的层面,旨在为今后的研究提供阶梯,以有助于该项研究工作的展开。     

林分生长与产量模型系统研究综述

本文阐述了影响林分生长和产量的 5个因子 ,即立地指数、林分年龄、林分密度、生境类型和林分结构。介绍了林分水平、径级水平和单株木水平的林分生长和产量预测模型系统的一些代表性模型系统。还介绍了一些典型的生长和死亡模型。林木和林分是两级不同水平的生态系统。作者提出了建立以生态系统特性 (如系统的整体性、同时性、组成成分间交叉相关性等 )为基础的系统化模型。通过建立联立方程系统 ,用 3阶段最小二乘法拟合回归参数 ,可望提高林分生长和产量预测模型的真实性和估测精度     

黄冕林场桉树人工林经营利用与经济效益分析

对广西黄冕林场3-5年生桉树人工林进行生长调查,探讨分析桉树经营利用经济效益。结果表明：桉树人工林中,不同林龄和同一林龄桉树人工林之间生长差异明显。不同的立地条件、初植林分密度对桉树人工林胸径、树高等生长影响很大。随着林分密度（标准地样木数）的增大,样木数与生长指标之间具有较强的负相关性。随着林龄的增大,这种林分密度负效应就越明显。从财务指标看,随着林龄的增大,总产值、纯利润和NPV均呈现增大的趋势,但IRR却并不如此,而是先增大后减少,在4a时,IRR达到最大值。从年份看,投资回收期为3a。结果表明桉树在广西黄冕林场这样的立地条件和气候条件下,表现适生、速生,且经济效益好,是营造短周期用材林的好树种。但为获得好的经济效益,必须注意树种、立地条件和栽培等措施的选择。     

Estimation of stem volume using laser scanning-based canopy height metrics

The aim of this study was to test different stem volume predictorsthat are capable of utilizing laser scanning-based canopy heightmetrics as independent variables. The three laser scanning-basedmethods compared were (1) a direct prediction model for thestem volume at plot level, (2) a volume prediction system basedon the modelled percentiles of the basal area diameter distribution,and (3) a parameter prediction method used to determinate Weibull-basedbasal area diameter distributions for the plot-level stem volumeprediction. The predicted volumes were also compared with field-measuredvolumes obtained with the Finnish conventional inventory bycompartments. The best results were obtained with the firstmethod, i.e. the model that predicts plot-level stem volumesdirectly, which is logical. Furthermore, the simulated reductionof point density of laser data had no effect on the accuracyof stem volume predictions. The percentile-based modelling ofdiameter distributions was applied, in particular, to the determinationof non-homogenous stand structure; using this method, it iseven possible to fit multimodal distributions. In terms of theaccuracy of the predicted plot-level stem volumes, the volumeprediction method based on modelled percentiles of basal areadiameter distributions was the second best, whereas the volumeprediction method based on the parameter prediction of the Weibull-basedbasal area diameter distributions resulted in slightly worseresults. However, the accuracies of the three laser-based volumeprediction methods tested were superior to the published resultsof spectral value-based remote sensing studies implemented usingdata collected from Finland. Furthermore, the accuracy of plot-levelstem volume estimates calculated from field assessments wasconsiderably weaker than the accuracy of the three volume predictionmethods that utilized measures obtained with laser scanning.     

Predicting and calibrating diameter distributions of Eucalyptus grandis (Hill) Maiden plantations in Zimbabwe

Diameter distribution models for even-aged Eucalyptus grandis plantations in Zimbabwe were developed using the two-parameter Weibull function. The analysis was based on data from Correlated Curve Trend (CCT) experiments replicated on four different sites. Parameters of the Weibull distribution were predicted using stand characteristics as regressors. Two sets of parameter models were estimated: a set with and one without stand basal area as a predictor. Stand variables such as dominant height, age, site index and number of stems were used in both sets. The models were further calibrated to result in a given number of stems and stand basal area simultaneously. The usability of constructed models was tested both in prediction of yield in a stand inventory situation and in simulation of growth in connection with different growth models. The results indicated that models not including stand basal area produce considerably less precise stand volume estimates compared to models including also stand basal area. Calibration improved the accuracy of diameter distribution models. In growth simulation diameter distribution models can be connected both to single tree growth models and to stand projection models. The usability of calibration in growth simulation depends on the accuracy of the prediction of stand characteristics.     

A simple step-wise procedure for predicting stand development of Acacia mangium plantations based on the maximum size–density line in South Sumatra, Indonesia

A simple step-wise procedure for predicting the course of stand development on log–log coordinates of stand density and quadratic mean diameter was presented based on a distance of measurement from the maximum size–density line of Acacia mangium. This procedure first predicts annual increment of diameter with a multiple linear regression having the distance, site index, and current diameter as independent variables, and then the associated mortality is calculated with the rate of reduction in stand density to the diameter growth derived from a fitted trend with the distance. The cumulative predictions, starting at 3 years after planting until 9 years of age, agreed well with the observations of group-age means of measurements calculated for the three levels of initial density. Contrasting trend of basal area growth between the three levels of initial density and those for their site index: the differences were decreasing in the former while they remained constant in the latter, was clearly illustrated with the procedure indicating a good potential for use in yield prediction. The simulations for stand growth under different spacing and thinning options were demonstrated in a stand density control diagram suggesting reasonable flexibility for practical application.     

杉木林分密度效应研究

该项试验共分2个部分.(1)造林密度试验,小区面积为600 m2,5个处理,即1 667株.hm-2(A)、3 333株.hm-2(B)、4～983株.hm-2(C)、6 633株.hm-2(D)、9967株.hm-2(E);(2)造林密度调控试验,造林设计方法与造林密度试验相同,但在林分生长过程中,按密度管理图的密管线0.5为标准进行间伐,间伐后保留密度要与临近的下一个初植密度较稀植的林分密度基本相同,两者进行比较.试验结果(1)造林密度试验,优势高、平均高、平均胸径均随年龄的增加而递增,随密度的增加而递减,优势高9a、平均高6 a、平均胸径5 a,密度间差异已达显著性水平;林分蓄积量则随年龄增加而递增,5～7 a,密度间差异显著,8～18a,只有A密度与E、D密度差异显著;枝下高随密度、年龄的增加而递增,12～a后,C、D、E密度间的差异很小;冠幅随密度的增加而递减,随年龄的增加而递增,9～10a后,各密度则随年龄增加而缓慢递减.(2)造林密度调控试验,同一指数级,间伐后的林分与其密度基本相同未间伐的林分比较,其优势高、平均高差异不明显;立木蓄积前者小于后者;总蓄积(立木蓄积+间伐蓄积)前者大于后者;同一指数级,初植密度不同的林分,间伐后与密度基本相同未间伐林分的蓄积百分比,初植密度大的大于初植密度小的;指数级不同,而初植密度相同的林分,间伐后与密度基本相同未间伐的林分总蓄积百分比,高指数级的比值大于低指数级的比值.     

白桦人工林单木生长的人工神经网络模型研究

以东北林业大学帽儿山实验林场白桦人工林为研究对象,采用MATLAB中log-sigmoid型函数（logsig）和线性函数（purelin）为神经元的作用函数,用林分内单木相对直径、林分密度指数、林分地位指数和林分年龄作为输入变量,以单木胸径生长量作为输出变量,构建了4：n：1的单木生长的BP人工神经网络模型。用200组单木生长数据对网络模型进行训练和检验,得最适宜的网络结构为4：3：1,均方误差函数mse=0．00160179,总体拟合精度为96．86％。本模型在充分跟踪样本数据的同时,又保持树木生长方程的规律性,可供同类条件的林分在进行经营设计时进行分析、计算和模拟和预测等使用。