Patterns and determinants of human-carnivore conflicts in Central Iran: realities and perceptions behind the conflict

This article assessed the patterns and determinants of human-carnivore conflicts and local attitudes toward carnivores in 18 villages in eastern Isfahan Province, Central Iran. Livestock depredation by carnivores was common, representing a total loss of 3% and 13% of sheep and poultry population, respectively. Over 93% depredation events were attributed to the gray wolf. Households and herders held negative attitudes toward the gray wolf due to their perceived threat to livestock and humans and expressed positive attitudes toward other carnivore species. Preventative measures, such as improved livestock husbandry seem to reduce damage caused by carnivores. In general, livestock that were herded by day with the presence of shepherds and guardian dogs and kept within an enclosure at night with dog presence were 35% less likely to be killed by wild predators. Education influenced peoples’ attitudes toward carnivores.     

不同规模草地超载主体的差异性——以甘肃省玛曲县为例

超载放牧已成为当前中国草地退化的主要诱发因素,牧民追求经济利益最大化的动机是产生超载放牧的根本原因。因此,在牧户差异性的基础上分析不同草原超载主体的异质性,对草原生态保护政策的制定具有重要的理论和实践意义。本研究发现,以中小规模牧户为主的单户、小联户和大联户在草地超载率和超载程度上都是草原超载的主体。为了维持家庭收支平衡和应对家庭未来可能面临的不可知风险,中小规模牧户的实际最小牲畜数量高于理论最小牲畜数量,因此,单户的超载率和超载程度明显高于联户,而以大规模牧户为主的中联户的超载率和超载程度最低。以草畜平衡补偿标准为代表的草原生态补偿政策,由于没有考虑不同规模牧户的差异性,现行的补偿标准只与牧户草地承包面积挂钩,因而忽略了超载牧户的异质性问题,致使中小规模牧户获得的补偿额度无法弥补牧户因补减畜造成的机会损失,产生减畜与补偿的不对等关系,这种补偿不仅不会促进中小规模牧户增收,反而会增大与大规模牧户的收入差距,难以调动广大中、小牧户的减畜积极性,进引发草原生态补偿政策的低效率问题。针对这种现象,政策制定者应考虑牧户的超载差异性来制定具有差别化的草原生态补偿标准,实现牧户减畜和补偿的对等关系。     

资本禀赋、政策感知与牧民减畜意愿——以巴音布鲁克世界自然遗产地为例

牧民的减畜行为是遏制草原生态环境退化最有效的方法之一。本研究基于巴音布鲁克世界自然遗产地187户牧民的实地调查数据,运用有序Probit回归模型分析了牧民的资本禀赋与政策感知对减畜意愿的影响。研究发现:牧民的金融资本、物质资本、自然资本和人力资本对其减畜意愿的影响不显著,文化资本对牧民的减畜意愿具有正向影响,社会资本对牧民的减畜意愿具有负向影响;政策监督力度通过影响牧民对“违规成本”的心理预期来抑制超载放牧行为,补助金额能否弥补减畜带来的经济损失是影响牧民减畜意愿的关键所在。基于研究结果提出以下建议:加强草原生态保护政策的宣传和引导力度,并结合当地牧民的风俗习惯与生活特点制定合理的监管措施,充分发挥村规民约等社会规范对超载放牧行为的约束作用;积极推动牧民的生计转型,减小对草原和畜牧业的依赖程度。     

Modeling Large Carnivore and Ranch Attribute Effects on Livestock Predation and Nonlethal Losses

Predator-livestock interactions are a major concern for both agriculture and conservation globally. Using retrospective survey data from 274 ranches in Wyoming, United States, we used information theory to model how ranch attributes and large carnivores influenced the timing, duration, and severity of livestock predation. We then used constrained ordination to understand how 1) landscape, weather, and animal features influence predation and 2) how livestock behavior and nonlethal loss relate to ranch attributes and large carnivores. Timing, duration, and severity of livestock predation were generally not explained by ranch size or number of counties but were explained by livestock type, livestock parturition (either timing or duration), and documented large carnivore loss. Addition of the large carnivore loss variable to global models always improved Akaike information criterion scores. Rangelands characterized as rough, forested, shrubby, or a public grazing allotment reportedly increased predation risk, in part, due to large carnivore exposure. Approximately two-thirds of participants noticed livestock nervousness if a predator was nearby, half of participants noted changes in livestock distribution patterns, and a quarter of participants noted a reduction in livestock grazing time. Nonlethal losses such as lower weight gains, lower conception rates, lower birth rates, and delayed birth season were reported by 27%, 19%, 12%, and 11% of participants, respectively. Ordination revealed separation between behavioral changes and nonlethal losses, attributed to large carnivore exposure. Parturition relative to livestock type was also strongly correlated to timing and duration of predation for cattle-only operations but not for operations with sheep. The predictive cattle predation-parturition model suggests that for each additional month of calving, producers should anticipate 21 additional d of predation. Understanding predator-livestock interactions relative to ranch and rangeland features, parturition, large carnivore exposure, and losses that extend beyond mortalities can assist in developing novel strategies to mitigate lethal and nonlethal losses.     

Simulation of Pastoral Management in Mongolia: An Integrated System Dynamics Model

High grazing density has given rise to concerns about grassland degradation in periurban areas in Mongolia. Moreover, whether livestock can increase without harming the vegetation in these areas in Mongolia and what types of policy measures should be implemented is not documented. As such, this study develops an integrated simulation model of grassland biomass, animal growth, and livestock management for a forest-steppe area in northern Mongolia and conducts a simulation on long-term changes. The simulations show that, under current conditions, the number of animals will continue to increase, while the grassland biomass will decrease. Cooperative grassland management would lead to an increase in grassland biomass and higher incomes for herders. Furthermore, herders’ population changes would have a significant impact on animal density adjustments, while the effects of conventional economic measures, such as a tax on animals, would be limited if all other conditions remain constant. Consequently, the synergistic effects of herder population changes and cooperative management can contribute toward maintaining the herders’ income while preserving the grassland ecosystem.     

Mitigating Human Conflicts with Livestock Guardian Dogs in Extensive Sheep Grazing Systems

Livestock guardian dogs (LGDs) are an effective tool for limiting livestock depredation by wild and feral predators. Unfortunately, LGDs have bitten hikers, joggers, and mountain bikers. Strategies are needed to mitigate LGD-human conflicts, especially in landscapes inhabited by large, aggressive predators where the threat of livestock depredation is greatest. One recommendation is to keep groups of sheep protected by LGDs at least 400 m from high-use recreational sites, but few data exist to support or refute this strategy. We monitored sheep and LGDs with Global Positioning System collars at seven ranches during a 3-yr period to evaluate how far, and under what circumstances, LGDs roamed from their sheep. One band of sheep (i.e., flock) was studied per ranch, with a typical band composed of 600−800 mature ewes with 900−1 200 lambs. Sheep were herded in extensive grazing systems within their traditional summer or fall grazing areas in foothill and mountain landscapes of southwestern and west-central Montana. Three bands of sheep inhabited landscapes with a greater threat of depredation by gray wolves and grizzly bears, and 4 bands of sheep inhabited landscapes where the threat of depredation was mostly from coyotes. The mean and median LGD-sheep distance across all LGDs and time periods was 164 m and 86 m, respectively. LGDs roamed farther from their sheep during nighttime and crepuscular periods than during daytime; farther when the moon was more fully illuminated; farther during fall than summer; and farther in landscapes without gray wolves and grizzly bears. Female LGDs roamed farther than males. Juvenile LGDs did not roam farther than adult LGDs. Overall, our results from extensive domestic sheep grazing systems suggest that keeping range sheep 400 m away from recreation sites and rural residences will likely prevent > 90% of agonistic LGD encounters with humans.     

Andean Bear Livestock Depredation and Community Perceptions in Northern Ecuador

Human–carnivore conflicts are a major cause of the decline in global carnivore populations. Since 2009, Andean bear (Tremarctos ornatus) depredation incidents in Ecuador’s northern Andes cordillera have reached unprecedented levels: more than 320 livestock deaths. The objectives of this article were to: evaluate local perceptions and knowledge of the Andean bear in response to frequent depredation incidents; better understand the cattle-raising culture of the region; and describe noted depredation incidents. Interviews were conducted with 83 participants in three locations within the depredation-conflict zone. Locals knew that pastures near the forest were vulnerable to bear depredation but often had few alternatives to raise cattle. Six depredation incidents were described. An effective management approach should concurrently improve livestock husbandry, track several of the region’s bears, develop policies that do not reward compensation but acknowledge depredation incidents, and use education to rectify false perceptions and misinformation of bears in the region.     

Wolf (Canis lupus) Predation Impacts on Livestock Production: Direct Effects,Indirect Effects,and Implications for Compensation Ratios

Growing wolf (Canis lupus L.) populations in the US Rocky Mountain Region have increased conflicts between livestock production and wolf conservation. Given that the costs of large carnivore conservation are disproportionately borne by local livestock producers, the United States uses compensation for wolf damage to reduce conflicts and mediate negative attitudes toward the predators. Current compensation programs, however, only consider the direct effects of wolf predation. Indirect effects, such as wolf effects on weaning weights, and conception rates, may also reduce profitability. By not including indirect wolf effects, compensation programs may systematically undercompensate ranchers. We use a stochastic budget model of a representative cow–calf ranch in northwest Wyoming to estimate the economic impact of both direct (death loss and injured calves) and indirect effects (decreased weaning weights, decreased conception rates, and increased cattle sickness) of wolf predation. Our results suggest that short-run (i.e., year-to-year) financial impacts of wolf indirect effects may be as large as or larger than the direct effects. Including indirect effects implies that the compensation ratio (i.e., number of calves compensated per confirmed depredation) necessary to fully offset the financial impacts of wolves would need to be two to three times larger than current 7:1 compensation ratio used in Wyoming.     

Attitudes of Rural Communities Toward Dispersing African Wild Dogs in South Africa

Subsistence pastoralists often view large carnivores negatively given that any loss of livestock is likely to represent a significant economic cost. Consequently, large carnivore conservation initiatives in rural landscapes should incorporate appropriate human–carnivore conflict mitigation strategies. In this study, structured interviews with local residents (n = 247) were used for determining attitudes toward African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) among rural communities neighboring two protected areas in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Contrary to expectations, the majority of respondents (58%) were generally positive toward wild dogs. This was probably due to a lack of livestock depredation by wild dogs and relatively high levels of formal education among respondents. Respondents with greater knowledge of wild dogs and conflict mitigation had more positive attitudes, and most were aware of effective husbandry techniques. The positive attitudes observed in these rural communities may benefit wild dog dispersal from natal home ranges and the future conservation of this endangered carnivore.     

Free-ranging livestock altered the spatiotemporal behavior of the endangered North Chinese leopard (Panthera pardus japonensis) and its prey and intensified human–leopard conflicts

Widespread distribution of livestock in the natural habitats of large carnivores may negatively impact carnivore populations by reducing wild prey availability and increasing human–carnivore conflicts. In this study, we used camera-trapping data collected in the temperate forests of the Taihang Mountains in North China during 2016–2019 to examine whether and how free-ranging cattle affected habitat use and Diel activity patterns of the endangered North Chinese leopard (Panthera pardus japonensis) and its 2 wild prey species, Siberian roe deer (Capreolus pygargus), and wild boar (Sus scrofa). Residents were also interviewed to record livestock depredation events by leopards during 2015–2019. We found that roe deer spatially avoided sites frequented by cattle, but wild boar did not. In the growing seasons, leopards shared habitats with cattle and tended to increase their diurnal activities where cattle were present. All 3 study species exhibited fine-scale spatial-temporal segregation to cattle. Leopards selectively preyed on calves over adult cattle and livestock depredation frequency was positively correlated with the detection rates of cattle and wild prey, but not that of leopard. These findings not only show that through behavioral adaption large carnivores and their ungulate prey may persist under livestock disturbance, but also highlight how important proper livestock management is for conserving North Chinese leopards in this region. To enhance livestock management and mitigate human–leopard conflicts, we recommend specific actions, such as better guarding of free-ranging cattle or adoption of a captive farming system.     

冻原高山草地牧户家畜养殖规模影响因素分析——以青海省为例

家畜养殖规模是草地载畜的重要组成部分,对其影响因素进行深度剖析,对于引导牧户合理放牧,遏制草地退化,确保我国生态安全意义重大。根据在青海省调查获取的牧户数据,本研究运用主成分分析法识别了冻原高山草地上相关因素对牧户家畜养殖量的贡献率,进一步采用分位数回归深入剖析了不同规模牧户家畜养殖量的影响因素及其影响规律,探索家畜养殖影响因素在牧户规模层面的异质性。结果表明：冻原高山草地牧户家畜养殖量的主导现实因素为自然因子,其余影响因素依次是政策因子、教育因子和非牧因子;中等以下规模牧户家畜养殖量受家庭劳动力和非牧就业收入占比的显著影响;中等及以上规模牧户家畜养殖量受人均经营草地面积和草原补奖政策的显著影响,补奖政策中禁牧比草畜平衡更能达到保护草地生态的目标。建议增加牧区非牧就业机会,积极引导中等以下规模牧户参与非牧就业,同时加大冻原高山草地禁牧范围,并在补偿标准上对中等及以上规模牧户适当倾斜。本研究发现了冻原高山草地上家畜养殖影响因素在牧户规模上的异质性,为政府针对不同规模牧户区分管理提供了一定的科学依据。     

2005-2017年青海三江源区草地家畜承载力时空格局研究

位于青藏高原腹地的青海三江源是全球气候变化的启动区和脆弱区,是我国国家生态安全屏障。为有效遏制该地区高寒草地生态退化,在2005—2017年先后实施了生态保护和建设一期工程、二期工程。本研究应用基于卫星遥感模型估算的植被净初级生产力及家畜存栏统计数据,对三江源生态保护和建设工程实施以来草地理论载畜量及载畜压力时空变化及其原因进行了分析。结果表明：2005—2017年间三江源区理论载畜量呈现不显著降低趋势,较之前一期工程期间,二期工程实施期间理论载畜量降低了6.75%;一期工程实施期间现实载畜总量2 041.39万羊单位,载畜压力指数1.38;而二期工程实施期间,可能由于气候暖干化使得理论载畜量降低,以及实施减畜政策与补偿的不对等关系,导致现实载畜总量增至2 216.40万羊单位,载畜压力指数增至1.60。研究结果表明生态保护和建设工程仍然面临着艰巨而又复杂的挑战。     

Restoration Practices Affect Alpine Meadow Ecosystem Coupling and Functions

Degradation of alpine meadows on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is an important issue for ecological science, policy making, and the welfare of local herders. Destruction of alpine meadows results from degeneration of vegetation and soil systems and from the mechanical decoupling of the environment, grassland, livestock, and herders and, subsequently, discordance among these subsystems. In this study, systematic integration of restoration techniques based on the grassland agroecosystems coupling theory was developed for the management and restoration of degraded alpine meadows. To test the effectiveness of these integrated restoration techniques, we conducted restoration trials that included grazing management, enclosed, fertilization, overseeding, and sward ripping by evaluating the ecosystem coupling of soil, plant and livestock, and ecosystem functions. The results of this study suggest that comprehensive restoration practices include grazing and agronomy techniques (fertilizer, overseeding, and sward ripping) that result in the greatest level of ecosystem coupling, while the single restoration practice leads to poorly coupled ecosystems. Restoration practice changes in ecosystem functionality are positively related to changes in ecosystem coupling. Our results highlight the importance of diversified restoration practices for facilitating ecological coupling and functioning in the degraded alpine meadow. The restorative scheme also bridges the gap between restoration theory and practice by providing guidelines for herders and policy makers for the urgent task of restoring degraded alpine meadows.     

Perception and Management of Spatio-Temporal Pasture Heterogeneity by Hungarian Herders

The goal of our study was to document traditional steppe herders' perception and management of spatial and temporal heterogeneity of forage availability of their seminatural pastures. Ninety-two herders living in the Hortobágy saline steppe, Hungary, Central Europe were interviewed, and participatory observation was used to understand herding and habitat improvement techniques. The herders recognized 47–66 habitat types (mostly grassland types), and listed at least 90 plant species important for grazing. They have a nuanced knowledge of the intra- and interannual variations of forage quality and quantity. They perform very strong and well-planned herding practices. Daily spatial pattern of grazing is, however, often opportunistic and flexible, but has a more-or-less regular year-round cycle, in which marshes and stubbles provide forage in drought periods. Reciprocal learning and continuous communication between the herder and his driving dogs and livestock strongly influence grazing pattern. Herders manage and improve different habitats of their pastures differently by traditional and, less frequently, modern methods. The main method is grazing supplemented by manuring, burning, and removal of spiny weeds. Traditional knowledge of herders could be effectively used in evidence-based conservation and pasture management of European saline steppes; e.g., the reintroduction of some old herding techniques (opportunistic pasture use, grazing of marshes, and burning). Herders' knowledge could also help the fine-tuning and local adaptation of European agri-environmental regulations (e.g., how to balance subsidies for hay-making and grazing in saline steppes). More research is needed, however, on the ecological effects of different traditional grazing techniques, e.g., rotation, manuring, and burning. In general a more complex socio-ecological understanding of the internal and external factors affecting adaptation of the Hortobágy herders to changing environment, society, and European Union policies is needed.     

Vulnerability and Adaptation of Livestock Producers to Climate Variability and Change

Rangeland-based animal husbandry has been frequently exposed to the vagaries of weather. While the current rates of climate variability are unprecedented in arid and semiarid regions, climate change is expected to put further pressure on rangelands with medium- and poor-quality forages and increase the vulnerability of households who mainly depend on livestock production. Therefore, it is imperative to ensure that livestock producers increase their resilience to climate variability or change. However, few field-based studies have focused on simultaneous investigation of both vulnerability and adaptation of livestock keepers to climate-related risks. To fill this gap, a field-based research study was conducted in southwest Iran. A survey of 274 herder families, selected using a cluster sampling technique, revealed low, medium and high levels of vulnerability, which were principally distinguished by various degrees of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Further, this study identified the main adaptation strategies employed by the herders of this region (i.e., purchasing fodder; rotational grazing; raising a mixed-herd, on-farm occupation; and postharvest grazing). Results indicated that most herder families applied traditional adaptation strategies in response to climate variability. Findings revealed that herders had to reduce their livestock due to low adaptability. Loan term, purchasing insurance, level of exposure, income, experience, response efficacy, and knowledge were the major determinants of the herders’ adaptation decisions. To increase the resilience of livestock producers against climate change, restructuring traditional livestock production systems, producing participatory knowledge and information for sustainable management of rangelands, and designing or redesigning effective adaptation strategies are required.     

Transhumance as Antidote for Modern Sedentary Stock Raising

Few grazing themes so endure yet are so difficult for outsiders to document with certainty as historical and current-day livestock grazing routes: stock driveways. Excursions from one biome, ecotone, or landscape to another—in general, undertaken to seasonal cues — allow livestock owners and their hired herders to exploit different environments that offer notable advantages in terms of freeing livestock from unvarying diet, overtaxed grazing grounds, common diseases, and cycles of drought or drenching rain. Movement at whatever scale permits herders or shepherds an escape from monotony when they shift grazing grounds to montane-woodlands or back to lowland environments in travel that benefits both jaded humans and husbanded animals. Significant economic and ecological advantages accrue from the shifts of seasonal silvopastoralism, but the terrain, and in particular the routes animals travel, often stretch across varied land ownerships, and sifting out rights of passage is an ethnographic adventure requiring longstanding observation and consistent fieldwork. Formal scholarship about the road between is less established than literature of “the trail,” which is a staple feature of folklore, film, and fiction. As concern grows about the energy costs of using highways or railroads to move livestock, attention returns to traditional practices and legal accommodations that make possible trailing livestock under their own power. Across Europe are 4 million ha of land associated with livestock driveways, once widespread in the United States as an item of Spanish-Mexican heritage. This synthesis focuses on livestock driveway establishment in two landscapes: Spain and, secondarily, the western United States of America, with an overarching theme of how stock driveways can connect ecosystems and, by sustaining customary use, knit together silvopastoral society.     

影响牧民收入的关键因素研究—基于Meta分析与累积Meta分析

草原牧区的发展对于我国畜牧业而言具有非常重要的战略意义,为了促进牧区的可持续发展和牧民增收,我国政府于2011年开始实施草原生态补偿政策,在此政策背景下,基于16篇实证研究的3099个样本,运用Meta分析和累积Meta分析方法,探讨了政策实施以来影响牧民收入的重要因素,并分析了这些因素的影响作用随时间的变化趋势。研究结果表明,显著促进牧民收入的因素有牧民受教育程度、家庭劳动力数量、牲畜养殖规模、草场承包面积;其中牧户最为关注的因素有草场承包面积和牲畜养殖规模;而随着政策实施,牲畜数量的影响作用明显增加,其他因素都在减弱;很多变量都存在异质性,其中家庭劳动力数量和草场面积的异质性来源主要是地区因素,除此之外还有政策实施时间和抽样方式的影响。     

海南州草地牲畜超载与调控对策

对青海省海南州草地牲畜的超载状况进行了分析研究，提出了海南州草地牲畜的调控对策是：教育和组织群众，自觉按草畜平衡原则组织生产；挖掘生产内部潜力，调整畜群结构；增加科技与生产投入，提高草畜生产能力；建立草原监测制度，为确定合理载畜量提供科学依据。     

平山湖温性荒漠草地草畜平衡现状及发展措施

2008年通过对张掖市平山湖蒙古族乡草地、农牧业生产经营情况的入户调查,全乡有天然草地8.67万hm^2,可利用草地6.38万hm^2。草地理论载畜量为2.03万羊单位,实际存栏6.843万羊单位,超载4.813万羊单位,达237%。由于草地严重超载过牧,造成温性荒漠草地退化加剧,裸露草地数量增加,水土流失严重,草原生态环境日益恶化,使当地农牧民生产、生活受到严重的影响。必须通过调整优化畜群结构,使饲养牲畜公母比例由1∶1.4提高到1∶2.5-3.0,改变传统的全放牧饲养方式,加快畜群周转,达到草畜平衡,实现草地畜牧业可持续发展。     

Local Attitudes and Perceptions Toward Large Carnivores in a Human-Dominated Landscape of Northern Tanzania

We conducted 300 semi-structured interviews with local people adjacent to Tarangire National Park, northern Tanzania, to determine their attitudes and perceptions toward large carnivores. We analyzed the relationships between attitudes and age, gender, education, occupation, years at residence, income, distance from protected area, livestock owned, livestock lost to predators and knowledge of carnivores. Three-quarters of respondents (79%) held negative attitudes toward large carnivores, while 20% were generally positive. Three variables were positively associated with attitudes towards different species: formal education (all carnivore species), years at residence (lions and cheetahs), and knowledge of carnivores (cheetahs). Attitudes toward large carnivores were not significantly related to distance from protected area, livestock owned. or livestock lost to predators. Findings suggested that interventions aimed at fostering positive attitudes toward large carnivores should focus on improving formal education and securing long-term residency for people in the region.