Estimating habitat suitability and potential population size for brown bears in the Eastern Alps

According to the Habitats Directive of the European Union, a favorable conservation status for the brown bear (Ursus arctos) should be targeted at the population level in large contiguous habitats such as the Alps, the largest mountain range in Europe. However, in most of the Alps brown bears are extinct and habitat suitability in these areas is often questionable. For this paper, radio-tracking data from four projects with 42 individual bears was compiled to assess habitat suitability. Discrete-choice models with random bear effects were fitted and compared to results obtained from compositional analysis and logistic regression. Sound definition of the available area in the discrete-choice model turned out to be essential. Brown bears showed a preference for forested and steep habitats and an avoidance of roads.Results from the three approaches were used to predict habitat suitability across the entire range of the Eastern Alps. Minimum potential population size was projected based on observed densities in Trentino and Central Austria, and ranged from 1228 to 1625 individuals, with 518–686 mature bears. This would satisfy a favorable conservation status. The developed methodology also has wide applicability to quantification of habitat suitability and potential population size in other cases where species are at risk.     

Determining the spatial scale for conservation purposes - an example with grizzly bears

This study suggests procedures for determining the spatial scale for conservation guidelines for animals, giving an illustration with an analysis of grizzly bear habitat selection. Bear densities were sampled by identifying hairs at bait stations in British Columbia. Habitat variables were measured using remote sensing. Spatial scale was changed by varying the window size over which the variables were averaged. First, the spatial pattern of bears was studied, measuring the patchiness in bear densities at a variety of spatial scales, by calculating the correlation in bear densities between adjacent windows. This was repeated for the habitat variables. Finally, the overall interaction between bears and habitats was analysed, measuring the strength of habitat selection at different spatial scales. There are three domains of scale: at 2-4 km, bears and habitats are patchy, at 5-10 km, bears select for habitats, and at 40+ km, habitats are patchy and bears select for habitats. At scales of 40+ km, bears selected for: (i) higher slopes, or (ii) higher slopes, and some combination of more avalanche chutes, fewer roads and trees, higher elevations, and less logged land. Within 15 km areas, bears selected for 6 km areas that are either at higher elevations, or at higher elevations and had fewer trees. The relationship of conservation guidelines at different spatial scales should be determined by measuring and comparing hierarchical to non-hierarchical selection. The scales that bears select for habitats roughly correspond to the scales used in present grizzly bear conservation plans in British Columbia.     

Can natural disturbance-based forestry rescue a declining population of grizzly bears?

Forest managers are increasingly considering historic patterns of natural forest disturbance as a model for forest harvesting and as a coarse-filter ecosystem management tool. We evaluated the long-term (100-year) persistence of a grizzly bear population in Alberta, Canada using forest simulations and habitat modelling. Even with harvesting the same volume of timber, natural disturbance-based forestry resulted in a larger human footprint than traditional two-pass forestry with road densities reaching 1.39 km/km² or more than three times baseline conditions and suggested maximum levels of security for grizzly bears. Because bears favour young forests and edges where food resources are plentiful, a future shift to young forests and more edge habitat resulted in a 20% projected increase in habitat quality and a 10% projected increase in potential carrying capacity. Human-caused mortality risk, however, offset any projected gains in habitat and carrying capacity resulting in the loss of all secure, unprotected territories, regardless of forest harvest method, within the first 20-30 years of simulation. We suggest that natural disturbance-based forestry is an ill-suited management tool for sustaining declining populations of grizzly bears. A management model that explicitly considers road access is more likely to improve grizzly bear population persistence than changing the size of clear-cuts. In fact, large clear cuts might be counter productive for bears since a diversity of habitats within each bear’s home range is more likely to buffer against future uncertainties.     

Efficacy of road removal for restoring wildlife habitat: Black bear in the Northern Rocky Mountains, USA

Forest roads reduce habitat quality for wildlife, in part by increasing susceptibility to hunting and poaching. Road removal is an increasingly common strategy for restoring habitat; however, little is known about responses of wildlife to road removal versus other methods of road closure. We assessed effects of different types of road closure (gated, barriered, and recontoured) on black bear (Ursus americanus) frequency and habitat on 18 open and closed road pairs in the western USA. Over 4 years, 44 bears were photographed during 3545 camera-trap days. Bear frequency was significantly higher (2.4 versus 0.6/100 days, respectively) and human frequency was significantly lower (2.4 versus 361.6/100 days, respectively) on closed than on open roads. Additionally, abundance of fall foods was higher (23.9% and 12.8%, respectively) and line-of-sight (a measure of habitat security) shorter (54.9 versus 69.4 m, respectively) on closed compared to open roads. Bears were detected on closed but not on open roads during daytime, suggesting avoidance of humans. Among-road-treatment differences included significantly higher frequency of bears on recontoured than on gated or barriered roads (4.6, 1.6, and 0.5/100 days, respectively), and significantly higher cover of fall bear foods on recontoured than on gated or barriered roads (39.3%, 12.1% and 16.4%, respectively). Frequency of bears was negatively correlated with frequency of humans and line-of-sight distance and positively correlated with abundance of fall foods and hiding cover. Results suggest that while all types of road closure benefit sensitive wildlife, removal by recontour may be the most effective strategy for restoring habitat.     

Grizzly bear response to human development and activities in the Bow River Watershed, Alberta, Canada

Few studies have reported the effects of multiple human activities on grizzly bears, Ursus arctos. We document the degree of grizzly bear response to various human developments as a function of multiple interacting variables based on observed median distances to roads, trails and development features in a landscape where human presence is widespread. Female grizzly bears remained further than males from paved roads regardless of habitat quality or time of day. Males were found closer to paved roads when within or adjacent to high quality habitat and during the period of least human activity. The combination of traffic volume and highway configuration, however, overrides a bear’s attraction to high quality habitats for high-speed, high-volume, highways. Avoidance of busy transportation corridors was strongest in the adult segment of the population. Bears were found closer to trails during the human inactive period when within high quality habitat and further from trails when distant to high quality habitat. Our data indicated an inverse relationship between the sexes in response to vehicles and traffic noise compared to the response to human settlement and encountering people. Female bears were found further away than males in relation to vehicles and traffic noise, yet found closer than males to human settlement and places where people may be encountered. Those males that were more willing to exploit high quality habitat near roads, did so at night and where hiding cover was present. Adult females were the most risk-averse cohort, choosing to avoid humans instead of seeking out high quality habitats. Adult female grizzly bears were influenced most by human activities and development. Management agencies must maintain access to high quality habitat, especially for adult females, and create new opportunities to support the reproductive potential of the population.     

A habitat-based framework for grizzly bear conservation in Alberta

Grizzly bear (Ursus arctos L.) populations in Alberta are threatened by habitat loss and high rates of human-caused mortality. Spatial depictions of fitness would greatly improve management and conservation action. We are currently challenged, however, in our ability to parameterize demographic rates necessary for describing fitness, especially across gradients of human disturbance and for land cover types. Alternative approaches are therefore needed. We describe here a method of estimating relative habitat states and conditions as surrogates of fitness using models of occupancy and mortality risk. By combining occurrence and risk models into a two-dimensional habitat framework, we identified indices of attractive sinks and safe harbour habitats, as well as five habitat states: non-critical habitats, secondary habitats (low-quality and secure), primary habitats (high-quality and secure), secondary sinks (low-quality, but high risk), and primary sinks (high-quality and high risk). Primary sink or high attractive sink situations were evident in the foothills where bears were using forest edges associated with forestry and oil and gas activities on Crown lands, while primary habitats or safe harbour sites were most common to protected alpine/sub-alpine sites. We suggest that habitat states and indices be used for setting baseline conditions for management and comparison of habitat conditions over time and identification of grizzly bear conservation reserves. A no net loss policy of critical habitats could be used to maintain existing habitat conditions for landscapes threatened by human development. Under such a policy, conversions of primary habitat would require restoration of equivalent amounts of primary sinks through decommissioning of roads.     

Demographic consequences of anthropogenic influences: Florida black bears in north-central Florida

Anthropogenic habitat fragmentation poses a serious threat to conservation of large carnivores, due to their extensive movements and potential conflicts with humans. We studied the population ecology of Florida black bears (Ursus americanus floridanus) for 6 years in two study areas in north-central Florida: Ocala National Forest (ONF), a contiguous forested habitat, and an adjacent residential community of Lynne, a fragmented habitat with substantial human activities. We estimated age-specific survival and fecundity rates of bears using data from radio-collared bears, and parameterized and analyzed stage-structured matrix population models for the two study sites and also for data pooled from both sites. Annual survival rates of adult females were lower in Lynne (0.776 ± 0.074) than in ONF (0.966 ± 0.023). While cub survival rates were higher in Lynne (0.507 ± 0.135) than in ONF (0.282 ± 0.109), the rates at both sites were substantially lower than those reported for other black bear populations. Age-specific fecundities did not vary between sites. The asymptotic population growth rate for ONF was greater than one, whereas that for Lynne was less than one. Our results suggest that anthropogenic influences (primarily road density and vehicular traffic, through their effect on adult survival) can substantially affect the population dynamics of Florida black bears and other large carnivores with large home ranges. We recommend efforts such as constructing highway underpasses, which could reduce road-related mortalities, to ensure long-term persistence of Florida black bears facing threats from rapidly increasing human influences.     

Black bear resource selection in the northeast Cascades, Washington

We examined resource selection of black bears in the northeast Cascades of Washington at two spatial scales. Specifically, we compared habitats selected for within home ranges to those available in the study area, and habitats selected for versus those available within home ranges. Compositional analysis showed selection of similar habitats at each spatial scale, with some differences. In the dry climate of the eastern Cascades, black bears appeared to locate home ranges within habitats that would provide abundant food resources, such as riparian and deciduous forests, meadows and shrubfields. Once established in a home range, black bears selected for a mosaic of habitat types that provided security cover in proximity to food resources, such as riparian and deciduous forests, other forest types and meadows.     

A habitat-based population viability analysis for ocelots (Leopardus pardalis) in the United States

Strategies are needed to recover the ocelot Leopardus pardalis from the endangered species list. Recently, a population viability analysis (PVA) was developed which concluded that combinations of different recovery strategies were needed to effectively reduce ocelot extinction probability in the United States (US), with habitat protection and restoration identified as the most effective recovery scenario. We expanded this PVA model by incorporating landscape data to develop a more realistic habitat-based PVA for ocelots in southern Texas. We used RAMAS/gis software to conduct a habitat-based PVA by linking landscape data with a demographic metapopulation model. The primary goal of this study was to provide a model for evaluating ocelot recovery strategies in the US. Each model scenario was simulated 1000 times over 50 years and we defined extinction as one individual remaining. Using the RAMAS/gis program we identified 11 possible ocelot habitat patches (i.e., subpopulations) occurring in southern Texas. In addition, based on the habitat-based PVA model we found that combinations of different recovery strategies were needed to effectively reduce ocelot extinction probability in the US, with reducing road mortality the single most effective strategy. Short-term recovery strategies should include reducing ocelot road mortality, and translocation of ocelots into the US from northern Mexico. Long-term recovery strategies should include the restoration of habitat between and around existing ocelot habitat patches and the establishment of a dispersal corridor between ocelot breeding populations.     

Effects of roads on landscape structure within nested ecological units of the Northern Great Lakes Region, USA

Road development is a primary mechanism of fragmentation in the northern Great Lakes Region, removing original land cover, creating edge habitat, altering landscape structure and function, and increasing access for humans. We examined road density, landscape structure, and edge habitat created by roads for eight land cover types at two ecological extents within a 78,752 km² landscape. Road density ranged from 0.16 to 2.07 km/km² within land type associations. Between 5 and 60% of a land cover type was affected by roads, depending on the assumed depth-of-edge influence (DEI). Roads increased number of patches and patch density, and decreased mean patch size and largest patch index. Changes in patch size coefficient of variation and measures of patch shape complexity depended on ecological level (i.e. scale) and land cover class. Limited additional change in landscape metrics occurred as road DEI was increased from 20 to 300 m. Land cover type occurred in buffers at the same percentages as in the landscape as a whole. At finer extents, areas with greatest road densities did not always parallel those with greatest changes in landscape structure. Interactions of scale and variation in the distribution of roads across the region emphasize the importance of examining landscape metrics and road impacts within specific cover types and at appropriate, or multiple, scales. Although this region is densely forested, the fragmentation effects of roads are pervasive, significantly altering landscape structure within multiple forest cover classes and at differing ecological extents.     

A priori valuation of land use for the conservation of black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis)

The appropriateness of using carrying capacity (CC) estimates to indicate habitat utilisation for a particular species, and thus as a tool for conservation population planning, has been questioned. We argue individual fitness is driven by resource availability, and we therefore assume individuals select habitats with a higher quality, abundance, and availability of key resources. In the past such selection has been related to the CC of a habitat. We tested whether we can use CC estimates to indicate habitat selection by individuals using a selective forager, black rhinoceros Diceros bicornis, for which CC approaches underpin species conservation plans. We tested for correlation of individuals’ habitat selection with predicted CC values at three spatial scales of selection. Individual selection was not related to the value of the habitat according to our CC estimates for any of the three scales we tested at. We discuss how density-dependence, environmental variables, scale of selection, individual variation and intra- and inter-specific dynamics may have influenced these results. Following this, we question the use of a priori calculations of potential resource quality and abundance of habitats (CC estimates), which do not take into account the various factors that influence an animal’s selection of a habitat, as an indicator of species habitat selection. We raise caution regarding the use of such CC models to determine optimal population numbers for an area.     

Use of highway undercrossings by wildlife in southern California

Roads, especially large highways, can have significant impacts on wildlife movement and survival. This is especially true for wide-ranging species, such as mammalian carnivores. Some of these impacts may be mitigated if wildlife can find and utilize passageways under highways. To determine if underpasses and drainage culverts beneath highways are used by wildlife as movement corridors, we monitored 15 such passages near Los Angeles, California using remotely triggered cameras and gypsum track stations. We found that passages were used by a variety of species, including carnivores, mule deer, small mammals, and reptiles. Many types of undercrossings were utilized, indicating that passages beneath highways, even when not originally designed for wildlife, can provide important safe avenues for animals to cross roads. For mammals of conservation concern, including native carnivores and deer, passage dimensions, surrounding habitat, and the extent of human activity were assessed to determine if these factors influenced passage use by these species. Our results show that while many native mammals used passages beneath highways, the presence of suitable habitat on either side of the passage was a particularly important factor predicting use. For deer and coyotes, passage dimensions were also important and should be considered with the presence of suitable habitat when wildlife passages are planned or evaluated. To increase the likelihood of utilization and to help prevent animals from crossing road surfaces, we suggest that simple improvements such as habitat restoration near crossing points and animal-proof fencing that serves to funnel wildlife to passages, can facilitate animal movement between fragmented habitats that are bisected by roads.     

A habitat model for brown bear conservation and land use planning in the central Apennines

We investigated the brown bear habitat suitability in an 8000 km² study area encompassing Abruzzo, Latium, and Molise regions in central-southern Italy. Based on long-term field surveys and published records, we classified bear habitat as occupied or unoccupied in 92 out of 320 sample squares (5 × 5 km). For each sample square 36 habitat variables were measured from topographic maps and Corine land-cover III level digital maps. The influence of habitat features on bear presence was investigated by multivariate and one-way analyses of variance and by logistic regression analysis. The logistic model correctly classified 95.5% of sample squares of bear presence and 93.8% of those where bears were absent. Average altitude, deciduous woodlands and ecotone length, showed a positive relationship with bear presence, whereas vineyard-olive groves and shrublands were negatively correlated with bear presence. No specific land management guidelines or strategies exist for bear conservation in central Italy, based on knowledge of habitat-population relationships. The landscape scale habitat model we developed could be useful to predict bear occurrence, to identify critical areas for a brown bear conservation strategy, and to enhance the arrangement of the protected areas network for the conservation of this species.     

Dynamic wildlife habitat models: Seasonal foods and mortality risk predict occupancy-abundance and habitat selection in grizzly bears

Most current wildlife habitat models, such as resource selection functions, typically assume a static environment, extrapolate poorly in space and time, and often lack linkages to population processes. We submit that more mechanistic habitat models that directly consider bottom-up resources affecting growth and reproduction (i.e., food) and top-down limitations affecting survival are needed to effectively predict habitat quality, especially in the presence of rapid environmental change. Here we present a general model for estimating potential habitat quality (relating to growth and reproduction) and realised habitat quality (accounting for survival) using basic knowledge of the species’ seasonal diet, predicted locations of food resource patches and regional patterns in mortality risk. We illustrate our model for a threatened population of grizzly bears in west-central Alberta. Bi-monthly potential habitat quality successfully predicted habitat selection by radio-collared grizzly bears, while multi-seasonal realised habitat quality predicted patterns in occupancy-abundance as measured from unique bears at hair-snag sites. Bottom-up resources therefore predicted patterns of habitat selection, while top-down processes (survival) were necessary to scale-up to population measures. We suggest that more direct measures of resources and environments that affect growth, reproduction and survival, as well as match the temporal scale of animal behaviour, be considered when developing wildlife habitat models.     

Modeling connectivity of black bears in a desert sky island archipelago

Landscape features such as rivers, mountains, desert basins, roads, and impermeable man-made structures may influence dispersal and gene flow among populations, thereby creating spatial structure across the landscape. In the US–Mexico borderland, urbanization and construction of the border fence have the potential to increase genetic subdivision and vulnerability to isolation in large mammal populations by bisecting movement corridors that have enabled dispersal between adjacent Sky Island mountain ranges. We examined genetic variation in black bears (Ursus americanus) from three regions in central and southern Arizona, US, to assess genetic and landscape connectivity in the US–Mexico border Sky Islands. We found that the three regions grouped into two subpopulations: the east-central subpopulation comprised of individuals sampled in the central highland and high desert regions, and the border subpopulation comprised of individuals sampled in the southern Sky Islands. Occupancy for the border subpopulation of black bears was influenced by cover type and distance to water, and occupancy-based corridor models identified 14 potential corridors connecting border Sky Island habitat cores with the east-central subpopulation. Biological quality of corridors, defined as length:width ratio and proportions of suitable habitat within corridors, declined with Sky Island dispersion. Our results show that black bears in the border subpopulation are moderately isolated from the east-central subpopulation, the main population segment of black bears in Arizona, and that connectivity for border bears may be vulnerable to anthropogenic activities, such as those associated with urbanization and trans-border security.     

Satellite tracking of breeding black storks Ciconia nigra: new incomes for spatial conservation issues

Satellite tracking of black storks was used to estimate home range sizes and to study habitat selection during the breeding season. Breeding and non-breeding adults foraged over very large areas (ca. 54 000 ha for 12 territories), preferentially in woodlands with high number of river sources, mirroring the species needs for high quality water resource. Rearing and post-fledging ranges of breeding partners largely overlapped. Home ranges of non-breeding adults largely overlapped ranges of breeding birds, so that assessing home range size of breeding pairs from observed densities is not reliable. Protection and management of breeding and feeding habitats appear to be the most important conservation measures to be considered. This study allowed to evaluate how large these protected areas should be, and which habitat types they should encompass. Conservation measures for the species in western Europe should include protection of very large forest areas and also focus on managing river networks to ensure a high water quality as far as 20 km away from nests.     

Human impact on a brown bear population (Ursus arctos L.)

The effect of human disturbance and activities upon a small, remnant brown bear population in southern Norway was studied throughout a 25-year period. Bear reports are compared with indices of human activities, mainly mechanised forestry including the building of a network of forest roads and the practice of clear-felling. In the last 10 years of the study extensive building of holiday cabins has taken place.Statistically significant negative correlations exist between the number of bear observations and the density of forest roads. Negative tendencies were also indicated in areas close to cabin concentrations. A positive correlation is indicated between the number of bear observations and the length of the timber line in an area.     

Diversity and abundance of selected animal species in undisturbed forest,selectively logged forest and plantations in East Kalimantan,Indonesia

Animal surveys were conducted in six habitat types within the timber concession of PT International Timber Corporation Indonesia, East Kalimantan. Species diversity was found to be similar in undisturbed forest and in 3- to 5-year-old selectively logged forest, although densities in the latter were considerably less. Both diversity and density declined drastically in forestry plantations, but certain of the species remaining caused significant damage to young trees. Although few animals were observed in areas where there was active road construction and timber felling, their densities in adjacent undisturbed forest areas did not increase, suggesting that the level of local migration actually is low. It is suggested that recolonisation of old logged forest can occur successfully provide that the level of hunting is low and that adjacent areas of undisturbed forest remain to provide a population pool from which colonists can spread.     

Effects of fuelwood collection and timber harvesting on giant panda habitat use

Timber harvesting and fuelwood collection have dramatically reduced the total amount of forestland around the world, including in China. To understand how timber harvesting and fuelwood collection activities affect use by wildlife, we examined giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) use within Wolong Nature Reserve, Sichuan Province, southwest China. We evaluated giant panda use of habitat by observing the presence/absence of panda feces in 913 field plots. Newly harvested areas (0-10 years) had the lowest frequency of feces presence (3%), while unharvested forests had the highest (36%). Feces presence is influenced by bamboo cover, overstory and midstory composition, slope, aspect and distance to human activity. Results suggest that timber harvesting and fuelwood collection have important impacts on the use of forested habitats and panda use is reduced for several decades after harvests. However, as the forest regenerates, panda habitat may begin to recover after a period of at least 37 years. This has potential implications for the long-term conservation of panda habitats and suggests that if forestland is maintained via the Natural Forest Conservation Program (China’s logging ban), habitats that were previously harvested may eventually regenerate and increase the potential for the species long-term survival.     

Effects of landscape composition, habitat features, and nest distribution on predation rates of simulated turtle nests

We investigated predation of simulated turtle nests in an effort to understand how land-use patterns and the availability of nesting habitat may affect turtle recruitment in a region where human populations and associated development are increasing. Simulated nests were patterned after those created by painted turtles (Chrysemys picta), a common aquatic turtle in our study area, and distributed in four patterns (clustered and near pond, scattered and near pond, clustered and far from pond, and scattered and far from pond) around 36 ponds. Landscape composition (500-2000 m from pond perimeters) and habitats surrounding pond edges (an area extending 250 m from the shore of each pond) were then compared with rates of predation at each pond. Nest-site characteristics also were compared to the fate of individual nests. Landscape composition and habitats surrounding ponds apparently had little influence on predation rates. Nest distribution and the immediate habitat features associated with each nest did affect vulnerability to predation. Clumped nests were preyed upon at a higher rate than scattered nests, and nests close to ponds (within 50 m) were more vulnerable to predators than those created far (100-150 m) from a pond. Counter to our expectations, proximity to edge habitats (other than the shore of a pond) reduced the probability that a nest would be detected by predators. Also, nests placed near roads and suburban lawns had a reduced likelihood of predation whereas those placed in agricultural areas or disturbed sites had a greater probability of being preyed upon. Our results suggest that predation of simulated turtle nests may be a consequence of their distribution and location relative to the foraging activities of common nest predators, especially raccoons (Procyon lotor). Efforts to enhance recruitment among declining populations of turtles should consider the abundance and distribution of nesting habitat. Providing additional nesting sites away from predator foraging habitats may reduce nest predation and increase the recruitment of hatchlings into a population.