对渔业实际种群分析（VPA）中调谐方法的初步研究

实际种群分析法(VPA)是渔业资源评估的经典模型之一,也是总允许捕捞配额(TAC)计算的主要模型之一。由于VPA方法本身具有不确定性,单纯的分年龄组产量数据不能计算最末年的捕捞死亡系数(和种群数量),所以它通常需要分年龄组产量数据和附属数据。VPA的调谐方法发源于欧洲,它们简单、易于理解和不需要繁杂的计算,在实际的渔业资源评估中有着广泛的应用。文章研究了最具有典型性的3种VPA调谐方法,JAM(judicious average method)、LS(Laurec and Shepherd method)和Hybrid。应用模拟数据的研究表明,3种方法在捕捞死亡系数稳定时可以较准确地估计补充值。当捕捞死亡系数随时间增加时,LS方法相对于其它2种方法有较优的表现。当捕捞死亡系数随时间减少时,JAM方法有较优的表现。     

大西洋中上层鲨鱼资源状况的初步探讨

据1994—2001年4个航次在金枪鱼延绳钓渔船对热带大洋性中上层鲨鱼资源进行调查，并分析国际大西洋金枪鱼资源保护委员会提供的关于中上层鲨鱼的渔业数据。结果表明：延绳钓渔业共兼捕13种鲨鱼，其中，尖吻鲭鲨和大青鲨是优势种类。尖吻鲭鲨在第1、第2和第4航次的CPUE分别为每千钩0．3502、0．1754和0．0642尾，呈下降趋势。大青鲨在第1～3航次的的CPUE达到每千钩5～7尾，而在第4航次下降为每千钩0．8尾。研究报告了中国金枪鱼船队自1993年开始在大西洋兼捕尖吻鲭鲨和大青鲨的渔获量，并根据捕捞死亡系数和大西洋总渔获量数据，初步探讨了尖吻鲭鲨和大青鲨年平均资源量，影响CPUE的因素和大西洋中上层资源状况。     

南海北部眼镜鱼资源利用状况研究

根据2008-2019年南海北部渔港渔业生产抽样调查数据,统计得出南海北部的眼镜鱼(Mene maculata)产量主要来自于灯光围网,占其总产量的93.38%。利用剩余产量模型对围网作业功率在300 kW以上、功率在200~300 kW和功率在100~200 kW的CPUE数据进行了分析。模型计算出南海北部眼镜鱼的最大可持续产量在151128.99~163139.34 t,平均为155298.09 t。依据处于优势地位的围网作业功率在200~300 kW的CPUE数据的模型评估认为,2019年发生了过度捕捞。该鱼种的总可捕量宜下调为3.6×10⁴t。     

Voluntary angler logbooks reveal long‐term changes in a lentic pike,Esox lucius,population

Sixty‐two years of voluntarily collected angling logbook data from a large natural Danish lake were used to study variation in pike, Esox lucius L., CPUE (catch per unit effort), expressed as no. of captured pike per boat trip, as an index of stock size. Pike CPUE was positively related to pike release rate by anglers and negatively affected by certain commercial fishers. The stocking of young‐of‐the‐year pike and a fishery‐dependent index of perch, Perca fluviatilis L., abundance (which may be pike prey or predator depending on size) did not correlate with pike CPUE. Analyses of the size distribution of pike, based on sizes of annual record trophy pike captured by anglers, confirmed the negative impact of commercial pike fishing and revealed a positive influence of air temperature. It is concluded that high‐quality angler logbooks that record effort and catch can be a cost‐effective tool to inform lake fisheries management by revealing long‐term population trends. Further, state space modelling, a statistical technique not yet seen in recreational fisheries science, is recommended as a tool to model proxies for population dynamics from angler logbook data.     

Inter‐ and intra‐specific interactions affecting crustacean trap fisheries—Implications for management

The UK coastal trap fisheries target two key species, European lobster Homarus gammarus (L.) and brown crab Cancer pagurus L. Their stock status is assessed periodically using size‐based, yield‐per‐recruit analysis. Fishery trends are described using landings and, where available, effort data to estimate catch per unit of effort (CPUE), nominally proportional to abundance. Despite being caught together, assessments assume that concurrent capture of these species does not distort their individual CPUE estimates. Here, an in situ experiment tested impacts of inter‐specific and intra‐specific interactions by pre‐loading baited traps with different species and observing subsequent catches. Pre‐loaded European lobster significantly reduced brown crab catches, whereas, other species produced no such effects. The findings highlight the likely inconsistency of using CPUE as an index of abundance if landings data originate from a mixed‐species fishery in which species interactions and targeting behaviour of fishers are unknown or un‐quantified.     

Effects of sampling errors on abundance estimates from virtual population analysis for walleye pollock in northern waters of Sea of Japan

ABSTRACT:   Effects of sampling errors on abundance estimates from virtual population analysis (VPA) were quantified with the bootstrap method for stock of walleye pollock in the the Sea of Japan. In the bootstrap method, individual fish measurements were resampled. A total of 1000 bootstrap samples were produced for each year from 1991 to 2001. The coefficients of variation (CV) of catch at age in 2001 ranged 6.1–33.1%. The CV of an abundance estimate in 2001 ranged 9.0–35.7%. Abundance estimates of the oldest age and the latest year, which had larger CVs than the other estimates, were sensitive to sampling errors. Effects of sampling errors became smaller when the catch at age had been accumulated over a few years. Although VPA includes various types of errors, only the sampling errors have room for improvement in reality. Quantifying the effect of sampling error on VPA estimates is essential for sound and efficient stock management, and is emphasized in this study.     

运用数据缺乏方法估算印度洋大青鲨可持续渔获量

运用数据缺乏方法,即基于资源衰减的可持续渔获量估算模型(DCAC),结合Monte Carol模拟,对印度洋大青鲨(Prionace glauca)的可持续渔获量进行估计。结果表明,若大青鲨资源衰减比率(Δ)为正值,当自然死亡系数M增大或最大可持续产量对应的捕捞死亡系数(F_(MSY))与M的比值c增大时,可持续渔获量估算值(Y_(sust))增大;若Δ接近零甚至为负值,当M或c增大时,Y_(sust)呈减小趋势。资源丰度指数的选择对DCAC结果有较大影响,基于日本延绳钓渔业1998—2014年和2001—2014年两个时间序列的丰度指数得到的Y_(sust)结果可靠,且与其他模型估算的MSY值接近。2014年印度洋大青鲨的年渔获量正好处在或略高于最大可持续产量(MSY)水平,但该结果仍具有一定的不确定性。本研究表明运用DCAC方法估算印度洋大青鲨可持续渔获量是可行的,但对其他鲨鱼种类的适用性仍需进一步研究,该结果可为数据缺乏方法在大洋和中国近海渔业中的应用提供参考。     

Target strength measurements of suspended live ommastrephid squid, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Todarodes pacificus</Emphasis>, and its application in density estimations

ABSTRACT:   Average target strength (TS) measurements of free-swimming Todarodes pacificus are required for calculating abundance estimations using the echo integration method. In this study, 31 live T. pacificus (18.0–28.4 cm dorsal mantle length; [ML]) were suspended with mantle tilt angles horizontally similar to free-swimming orientation, and their TS were measured using a 38 kHz split-beam echo sounder. Normalized TS by squared ML of T. pacificus ML was calculated as −73.1 dB: TS = 20 log ML −73.1 dB. The density of T. pacificus at their fishing ground off the northern Sanriku coast, Japan, was then estimated first using the echo integration method with the obtained normalized TS measurements, and then using commercial purse seine fishery CPUE (catch (tons) of squid per haul of purse seine) data. The density of T. pacificus aggregations near the continental shelf edge and upper continental slope was estimated as approximately 50–400 individuals/100 m² using both the echo integration method and CPUE data, both density results were similar. It was considered feasible therefore, to assess T. pacificus biomass directly using the echo integration method.     

Integrating the standardization of catch-per-unit-of-effort into stock assessment models: testing a population dynamics model and using multiple data types

Standardization of catch-per-unit-of-effort (CPUE) data can be integrated into stock assessment methods. We apply this method to the stock of trevally (Pseudocaranx dentex) off the west coast of New Zealand to address: (1) whether the stock assessment model explains all of the annual variation in the CPUE data, and (2) the impact on the assessment results of how the catch-at-age data are weighted. If not all of annual variation in CPUE is explained by the stock assessment model, the assessment may be statistically inadequate. The inadequacy may be in the representation of the population dynamics, in the relationship between CPUE and abundance, or due to additional variation in CPUE left unexplained by the independent variables. Catch-at-age data often have too much influence on the estimated abundance trajectory, so the sample size used in the catch-at-age likelihood function is often reduced when applying age-structured stock assessment methods. The integrated approach automatically places more weight on the CPUE data compared to the catch-at-age data, and may therefore provide an alternative to arbitrarily downweighting catch-at-age data.     

鱼类自然死亡系数评估研究进展

自然死亡系数是渔业资源评估中不可或缺的重要参数,其准确度直接决定了资源评估结果的可靠性,进而影响渔业管理策略的制定。本文从生活史参数、标志回捕和年龄结构3个方面列举了国内外自然死亡系数的常用评估方法,讨论了相关方法的优缺点及影响因素,并以犬齿牙鲆(Paralichthys dentatus)和中国近海鱼类为例对比分析不同模型的计算结果。在此基础上,着重介绍了Pauly经验公式在中国近海主要经济鱼类自然死亡系数评估中的应用进展及存在问题。根据渔业资源调查和研究数据现状,认为现阶段使用Pauly经验公式评估中国近海经济鱼类自然死亡系数具有积极作用。     

Reconstructing historical trends of small pelagic fish in the Java Sea using standardized commercial trip based catch per unit of effort

Pelagic fish stocks in the Java Sea have been exploited intensively since the beginning of the 1970s. However, due to the effect of increased fishing power of the fleets and the changing nature of spatial and temporal distribution of the fishing effort, assessment of stock trends based on commercial data of catch and effort requires the standardization of both effort and catch data. Here we present the first attempt to reconstruct a standardized time series of commercial catch per unit of effort (CPUE) for the main pelagic species exploited by the purse seine fleet in the Java Sea. The results showed that all the stocks analysed have largely declined since the beginning of the 1990s. For bigeye scad, Indian mackerel and sardine, current estimates are only between 3 and 19% of the maximum observed value while round scads and spotted sardine biomass estimates lie between 18 and 34%. However, our assumptions about the effect of lamp power and level of creeping and the fact that the influence of fish density on catchability and the effect of targeting were not taken into account thus observed decline is a rather conservative estimate of the real decline of the stocks. If effective management actions are not put in place as a matter of urgency in the Java Sea for small pelagic fisheries, one runs the risk of adding those species to the long list of overexploited stocks of the world oceans.     

Fish stock assessment of the northern New Caledonian lagoons:2 – Stocks of lagoon bottom and reef-associated fishes

Fish stocks found on lagoon bottoms and near reefs are characterized by a high diversity and heterogeneous habitat which make stock estimation difficult. In particular, it is necessary to combine several methods in order to evaluate the major components of these stocks. The present study aimed at estimating reef fish stocks in the Northern Province of New Caledonia, a region where they represent a major target for the local fishermen. These estimates were based on experimental fishing with handlines and bottom longlines. Handlines were used to assess the stocks near reefs, and longlines for those in areas away from reefs and on lagoon soft bottoms. Handline stations (363) were sampled in three different regions (west, north and east lagoons) and three biotopes (nearshore, middle lagoon and barrier reef). A total of 104 species were caught, the major families being Lethrinidae, Lutjanidae and Serranidae. Species composition and catch per unit of effort (CPUE) varied among regions and biotopes. In particular, the north zone showed characteristics of an unexploited area with very high yields. An increase in CPUE and fish size from the coast towards the barrier reef and with increasing depth was observed in all regions. Correlations between CPUE from handlines and the numerical density and biomass estimates from underwater visual censuses (UVC) performed on nearby reefs were significant. A total of 206 longline stations were sampled in the west and east regions. A total of 80 species were caught, the major families being the same as those caught in stations with handlines with the addition of Carangidae. The CPUE of longlines was significantly correlated with numerical density and biomass estimates made by UVC along the longlines. Stock estimates based on the correlations between CPUE from handlines or longlines and UVC estimates indicate that 90 % of the lagoon stock were found on soft bottoms and near reefs. Reefs, despite biomasses that were five times larger than soft-bottom and near-reef areas, made only a small contribution to total stock. The ratio between density and CPUE was highest for the lowest densities, thus indicating that fishing efficiency increased with density. Comparison of handline catch performed around reefs and UVC data from nearby reefs suggests that there were strong relationships between the fish assemblages of these two biotopes.     

东南太平洋竹?鱼资源评估与捕捞控制规则模拟研究

以东南太平洋智利竹鱼为对象、以资源量动态模型为基础,使用模拟方法构建了"真实"的智利竹鱼种群及其渔业,评估了观测误差和过程误差对智利竹鱼资源评估和管理的影响。模拟的"真实"的智利竹鱼种群及其渔业结果显示,1997—2014年太平洋智利竹鱼资源量总体上呈逐年下降趋势,且远低于B_(MSY)的50%;捕捞死亡系数波动剧烈,仅在2012—2014年低于F_(MSY)且相对稳定。渔业资源评估模拟结果显示,观测误差和过程误差使资源量和B_(MSY)被低估,捕捞死亡系数和F_(MSY)被高估,且随机误差越大,资源量、B_(MSY)被低估,而捕捞死亡系数、F_(MSY)被高估的程度越大。渔业管理模拟的结果表明,捕捞控制规则采用恒定捕捞死亡系数时,未来10年基于50%2014年捕捞死亡系数的管理措施为最佳管理措施。由于捕捞死亡系数被高估,最佳管理措施实施后使得年总可捕捞量高于预期,而年资源量低于预期,资源量增长或恢复的速度变慢,资源可能同时处于过度捕捞状态和正遭受过度捕捞。过度捕捞的风险与随机观测误差和过程误差的大小成正比。     

应用贝叶斯状态空间剩余产量模型框架评估印度洋大眼金枪鱼的资源状况

根据1950―2016年的渔获量数据及1955―2016年的单位捕捞努力量(Catch Per Unit Effort,CPUE)数据,采用贝叶斯状态空间剩余产量模型框架JABBA(Just Another Bayesian Biomass Assessment)对印度洋大眼金枪鱼(Thunnus obesus)的资源状况进行评估,分析了渔船效应、CPUE数据尺度对评估结果的影响。结果表明,模型拟合效果对于不同时间跨度下CPUE数据的选择比较敏感。当选用时间跨度为1979―2016年的CPUE数据且考虑渔船效应时,模型拟合效果最好。2016年大眼金枪鱼的资源量为812 kt,最大可持续产量(Maximum Sustainable Yield,MSY)为163 kt,远高于同年渔获量86.81 kt,其资源量具有82.50%的概率处于"健康"状态。当总允许可捕量为69.45～104.17 kt时(2016年渔获量的80%～120%),未来10年大眼金枪鱼的资源量仍高于B_(MSY)(达到MSY所需的生物量)。回顾性分析结果表明,该资源评估结果存在一定程度的回顾性问题,捕捞死亡率和资源量分别存在被低估和高估的现象。将来需要在模型结构设定、CPUE数据选择及模型参数的先验分布设置等方面进一步优化。     

澳洲鲭太平洋群系的资源评估与管理策略

澳洲鲭是西北太平洋重要的经济种类,了解和掌握澳洲鲭太平洋群系资源开发状况对确保其可持续利用具有重要的意义。根据日本中央水产研究所提供的1995—2015年澳洲鲭太平洋群系的生产统计和资源调查资料,利用基于年龄结构的实际种群模型和单位补充量产量模型等进行资源量评估,分析澳洲鲭太平洋群系资源利用情况及其管理策略。结果显示,历年澳洲鲭太平洋群系资源量虽有波动但仍保持在较高水平,2015年资源量最高约为65万t;年平均捕捞死亡系数呈波动下降趋势,2015年捕捞死亡系数只有0.15,近五年平均捕捞死亡系数Fcur=0.33,单位补充量亲体量是未开发时的32.7%,不存在生长型捕捞过度,也不存在补充型捕捞过度,处于可持续开发状态。研究还探讨了水温变化引起自然死亡波动以及不同开捕年龄对澳洲鲭太平洋群系资源状况的影响。研究表明,该渔业目前开发和利用程度合理,建议使用F0.1做为管理参考点进行渔业资源的管理。     

1999—2011年东、黄海鲐资源丰度年间变化分析

根据1999—2011年我国鲐大型灯光围网渔业数据,使用广义线性模型(generalized linear model,GLM)和广义加性模型(generalized additive model,GAM)估算了影响CPUE的时间(年、月)、空间(经度、纬度)、捕捞性能和环境效应[海表面温度(sea surface temperature,SST)、海表面高度、海表面叶绿素浓度],并以年效应作为资源丰度指数,分析了东、黄海鲐资源丰度的年间变化,东、黄海鲐资源丰度指数的年间变化与产卵场海表面温度以及捕捞强度间的关系。GAM结果表明,时间、空间、捕捞和环境变量对CPUE偏差的解释率为11.69%,其中变量年的解释率最大,占总解释率的38%。结果显示,1999—2011年东、黄海鲐鱼资源丰度指数(abundance index,AI)总体上呈下降趋势,2008年以来更是持续下降,丰度指数由2008年的1.22降至2011年的0.82。东、黄海鲐资源丰度指数年间与产卵场呈正相关,关系式为AI=-3.51+0.23SST(P0.05),这表明较高的产卵场SST对鲐资源量增加有利。过高的渔获量以及我国群众围网渔业渔船数量的快速增长是导致近年来鲐鱼资源下降的重要原因。     

印度洋长鳍金枪鱼资源评估的影响因素分析

多个模型被用于印度洋长鳍金枪鱼(Thunnus alalunga)的资源评估,但这些模型的评估结果均存在较大的不确定性,为此,本文对影响印度洋长鳍金枪鱼资源评估的因素进行了分析。分析结果认为:(1)由于渔业数据存在不报、漏报或混报及采样样本数过低、采样协议出现变化等问题,造成印度洋长鳍金枪鱼渔业的渔获量、体长组成或年龄组成数据存在质量问题;(2)尽管对单位捕捞努力渔获量(catch per unit effort,CPUE)进行了标准化,但目标鱼种变化及捕捞努力量空间分布变化仍严重影响了标准化CPUE数据的质量;(3)印度洋长鳍金枪鱼的种群生态学及繁殖生物学研究仍比较薄弱,种群结构、繁殖、生长、自然死亡信息比较缺乏,在资源评估中,相关参数设置需借用其他洋区的研究结果;(4)海洋环境对印度洋长鳍金枪鱼的资源变动与空间分布具有显著影响,但评估模型较少考虑海洋环境的影响。由于上述问题的存在,导致当前评估结果存在较大不确定性。未来,应继续探索提高资源评估质量的方法,同时研究建立管理策略评价框架,以避免渔业资源评估结果的不确定性对该渔业可持续开发的影响。     

Variation in productivity of a key snapper,Chrysophrys auratus,fishery related to recruitment and fleet dynamics

Abstract Temporal variation in production of the Chrysophrys auratus (Forster) fishery of Northern Spencer Gulf, South Australia, between 1984 and 2009 was investigated using commercial fishery statistics and estimates of age and size structures from market sampling. Fishery production was divisible into two periods, i.e. from 1984 to early 2000s and the middle to late 2000s. During the former, cycles in production were relatable to variable fishable biomass. Age structures that displayed considerable differences in age class strength reflected interannual variation in juvenile recruitment, which resulted in high variability in the strength of year classes entering the fishery. Periodic strong year classes were the major influence on fishable biomass as they passed through the population over numerous years. For the latter period, fishery statistics were conflicting as catches and effort were relatively low, whilst the estimates of catch per unit effort (CPUE) were consistently high. These statistics reflect a considerable change to the structure of the fishery that involved a reduction in number of fishers and fishing effort. The fishery statistics may indicate hyperstability, with CPUE estimates remaining high despite declining biomass because of the aggregative behaviour of the fish and the efficiency of remaining fishers.     

中西太平洋金枪鱼围网黄鳍金枪鱼产量的时空分布及与表温的关系

黄鳍金枪鱼是中西太平洋金枪鱼围网渔业中的重要捕捞种类之一。本文根据2003年中西太平洋金枪鱼围网生产统计及其表温数据,利用频次统计分析和地理信息软件Marine Explorer 4.0对黄鳍金枪鱼产量和单位日产量(CPUE)的时空分布进行分析,探讨其与海水表温的关系。结果显示,产量和CPUE最高的是2月份,其次是9月份,5月份为最低。高产量的范围为140~160°E、0°~5°S;CPUE高值区分布在130°E、0°~15°S,140°~160°E、0°~15°S和175°W、0°~15°S;产量经纬度重心分别为150°30′E和3°48′S。产量主要分布在海表温为28~31℃的海域,产量比重高达95.45%,其中29~30℃产量为最高,占69.54%。     

应用贝叶斯生物量动态模型评估印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼资源

利用贝叶斯生物量动态模型对印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼(Thunnus albacares)资源进行了评估,并分析了不同标准化单位捕捞努力渔获量(catch per unit effort,CPUE)、内禀增长率(r)先验分布对评估结果的影响。结果表明:(1)模型能较好拟合日本延绳钓渔业的标准化CPUE,但对中国台湾延绳钓渔业的标准化CPUE拟合较差;当模型单独使用日本标准化CPUE时,评估结果显示印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼被过度捕捞;若模型单独使用中国台湾标准化CPUE,则结果相反,显示印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼未被过度捕捞;而当同时使用两个标准化CPUE时,日本标准化CPUE数据获得更大估计权重,因此,评估结果与单独使用日本标准化CPUE的结果类似。(2)当r采用无信息先验时,r估计偏小,而环境容纳量(K)估计则偏大,参数估计不合理;当r采用信息先验时,r与K的后验分布估计相对合理;由于r与K存在显著的负相关关系,生物量动态模型难于同时有效估计这两个参数,特别是在数据质量较差情况下,因而采用信息先验能提高生物量动态模型参数估计的质量。(3)本研究利用偏差信息准则(Deviance Information Criterion,DIC)与均方误差(Mean Square Error,MSE)统计量对模型进行了比较,并选择模型S8用于评价印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼的资源状态。评估结果认为印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼被过度捕捞,既存在捕捞型过度捕捞,也存在资源型过度捕捞,这与资源合成(Stock synthesis version 3,SS3)等模型的评价结果一致。