2012年国际粮价情况及2013年走势分析

2012年，国际粮价总体呈现先弱后强走势，年底价格有所回落，但较年初仍有较大幅度提高，全年平均水平较2011年基本持平。2012年，国际粮食现货和期货平均价格分别比2011年上涨0．96％和下跌1．53％，其中，玉米现货和期货平均价格同比分别上涨7％和2％，小麦现货和期货平均价格同比分别上涨4％和6％，泰国大米现货、芝加哥糙米期货平均价格同比分别上涨5％和1．2％。在全球经济将趋于回暖、全球粮食产需关系偏紧的影响下，预计2013年国际粮价总体将呈高位运行状态。其中，粮食供需方面，据美国农业部报告，2012／13年度全球粮食总产量预计为22．39亿t，比2011／12年度下降3．22％，产需关系由上年度的产高于需515万t转变为产不足需4021万t，玉米、小麦及大米均产不足需。

Review of Global Grain Price in 2012 and Its Future Prospect for 2013

Global grain price in 2012 was mostly from weak to strong, lowered slightly at the end of the year, but still more substantial increase compared to the beginning of the year, and the annual average was in line with 2011. Global grain spot and futures annual average prices in 2012 were up 0.96% and down 1.53% from the prior year, respectively, where the average maize spot and futures prices were respectively raised by 7% and 2% again last year, the average prices of wheat spot and futures were respectively up 4% and 6% from the previous year, and the average price of Thai rice stock and Chicago brown rice futures rose 5% and 1.2% compared to the last year, respectively. It is expected that the 2013 international grain price will show overall a high level state, based on the global economy looking up and tight relationship between global grain production and demand. In the department of grain supply and demand, global grain production for 2012/13 is projected at 2. 239 billion tons, down 3.22% from 2011/12, and the relationship between production and demand for 2012/13 will change, from production higher 5.15 million tons than demand in 2011/12 to production lower 40.21 million tons than demand in 2012/13, at the same time, maize, wheat and rice production falls short.