2012年小麦市场回顾及2013年展望

2012年中国小麦连续第9年丰收增产，国内市场供应总体充足，但受饲料需求旺盛、生产成本上升、国家提高小麦最低收购价并启动托市预案等因素影响，国内小麦价格整体稳中上涨。由于国际小麦价格优势明显，中国小麦进口大幅增加，且以澳大利亚饲料小麦为主。2013年中国冬小麦面积稳中略增，但小麦生产成本刚性增长，同时，国家继续提高小麦最低收购价，预计2013年国内小麦价格仍以稳中上行为主。国际方面，受主产国干旱等不利天气影响，2012/13年度全球小麦较大幅度减产，产需格局由2011/12年度的基本平衡转变为产不足需，国际市场小麦价格也相应从2012年上半年的弱势波动，转变为下半年的较快上涨。虽然在高粮价刺激下，进入秋、冬季北半球主产国冬小麦播种面积可能有所增加，但一些主产国气象条件比较复杂，其中最大的小麦出口国美国一些主产区遭遇持续干旱天气，对作物生长不利；加之发达经济体为刺激经济发展，竞相实施宽松货币政策，势必助推国际商品价格上涨，2013年国际市场小麦价格也存在震荡上行动力。

Review of Wheat Market in 2012 and Its Future Prospect in 2013

China＇s wheat had a plentiful harvest and great production 9 times in succession in 2012, and domestic supply was ample. But China＇s wheat price increased steadily as a whole, affected by the high feed demand, increasing cost, raising minimum purchase price and initiating holding the market plan. As the international wheat price had competitive power, China＇s wheat import increased substantially, primarily feed wheat in Australia. It＇s expected that China＇s wheat price and winter wheat planting areas will be increasing and relatively stable in 2013, while the increase in price is due to the rigid growth of production cost and rising wheat minimum purchase price. In terms of international market, because of bad weather in some major producing countries, the global wheat production started to tail off significantly in 2012/13, the relationship between production and demand transformed from basically balance in 2011/12 to excess demand in 2012/13, and the international wheat price changed from fluctuating at a relatively low price level in the first half of 2012 to evidently increasing in the second half. Simulating by high wheat price, the winter wheat producing areas of main production in the northern hemisphere maybe increase in 2013, but the climate of some main producing countries is very complex, such as America, the biggest wheat export country, persistent drought hit some main production areas of it, which is not good for crop growth. Meanwhile, it will promote the international commodity prices to increase that the developed countries implemented the loos monetary policy one after other in order to simulate economic. The international wheat price is projected to fluctuate at a high level in 2013.