农业生产风险评估方法评述及展望

严谨科学的农业生产风险评估是准确厘定农业保险费率的基础和前提,对于降低农业保险中的逆选择和道德风险问题具有十分重要的作用。通过对国内外已有研究成果进行系统梳理,认为基于风险损失的农业生产风险评估方法最适合中国农业保险发展的实际情况,虽然该方法范式已基本成熟,但在风险损失估计和风险分布拟合两个方面都需要进一步完善,如何完善农业生产风险评估方法、如何从空间维度和时空维度评估农业生产风险可能成为未来研究的方向。

Agricultural Yield Risk Assessment:Review and Outlook

The robust assessment on agricultural yield risk has been considered as the vital step to price actuarial agricultural insurance which is important for eliminating the influence of adverse selection and moral hazard. Reviewing on the approaches of agricultural risk assessment comprehensively, we argued that the assessment approaches based on risk loss were the most appropriate ones for China. Although the approaches were well developed in previous studies, there were limitations/weakness in the process of loss estimation and the simulation of risk distribution. Finally three issues on improving risk assessment approach, and temporal ＆ spatial assessment for agricultural yield risk were proposed in this paper for the consideration of future study.