地理地形因素对山西近50年初霜冻变化的影响(英文)

基于1961~2010年山西62个测站逐日最低地温资料,分析了山西初霜冻变化特征,结果表明:(1)山西1961~2010年平均初霜冻日为10月7日;其分布总体表现为北早南晚,平均初霜冻日与海拔高度和纬度呈显著的负相关,相关系数分别为-0.85和-0.82。(2)M-K突变检验表明,山西近50年大部分站点的初霜日都有突变发生,主要集中在20世纪80~90年代,其分布表现为中部偏晚、北部和南部偏早的特征;突变年份与海拔高度和纬度均为负相关,相关系数分别为-0.45和-0.51。(3)大部分站点初霜冻日为推后趋势,推后幅度较大的地区集中在北部及中东部地区,提前较多的地区主要位于南部及中南部的部分地区;趋势变化与海拔高度和纬度均为负相关,相关系数分别为-0.30和-0.37。(4)轻微、中度和重度初霜冻出现的概率分别为:62%~82%、6%~26%和4%~22%,出现最大的区域分别为:中南部和东北部、中部和北中部、西部和北中部;海拔高度与不同等级初霜冻发生概率的相关都不大,纬度对初霜冻发生概率的影响都大于海拔高度。

Effects of Geographic and Topographic Factors on First Frost in Shanxi Province from 1961 to 2010

Based on day-to-day minimal ground temperatures in 1961-2010 from 62 meteorological stations in Shanxi province,the variation characteristics of Shanxi＇s first frost were analyzed.The results show：Shanxi＇s average first frost date was October 7,and the first frost date of the north was generally earlier than the south; the average first frost date had obvious negative correlations with altitude and latitude,and the correlation coefficients were respectively-0.85 and-0.82.M-K mutation test shows that the first frost date of most meteorological stations had mutations from 1961 to 2010,mainly in the years from 1981 to 2000,and the mutation year of the central area was generally later than the north and the south; the mutation year had negative correlations with altitude and latitude,and the correlation coefficients were respectively-0.45 and-0.51.The first frost dates of most stations had a delaying trend.Specifically,the large delaying scope region was located in the north and the mid-east,and the large advancing scope region was located in the south and the south central.The changing trend had negative correlations with altitude and latitude,and the correlation coefficients were respectively-0.30 and-0.37.Probabilities of the mild,the moderate and the severe first frost were 62％-82％,6％-26％ and 4％-22％,respectively,and the maximum probabilities appeared in the south central ＆ northeast,the central ＆ north central and the west ＆ north central.Correlation of altitude with first frost tends to be volatile upon frost grade and latitude has bigger impacts on first frost probabilities.