| 我国城镇居民食物氮消费变化分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王俊能,许振成,彭晓春.我国城镇居民食物氮消费变化分析[J].农业科学与技术,2010,11(4):176-179. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王俊能 许振成 彭晓春 |
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| 作者单位： | 王俊能(环境保护部华南环境科学研究所,广东广州,510655;湖南农业大学资源环境学院,湖南长沙,410128);许振成,彭晓春(环境保护部华南环境科学研究所,广东广州,510655) |
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| 基金项目： | 国务院污染源普查专项资金项目(WPXC2007C200)Supported by State Council Special Fund for Pollution Sources Survey |
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| 摘 要： | 通过分析1981～2007年我国城镇居民家庭人均食物氮年消费量的趋势变化,并进行ARIMA模型时间序列预测分析,以揭示我国城镇化过程中城镇家庭食物氮消费的发展变化规律。结果表明,20世纪80年代后我国城镇居民食物氮年消费量经历了上升—下降—再上升的变化趋势,总体上处于轻微的上升趋势;随着经济快速发展和城市化进程的加快,未来居民食物氮消费量仍然保持持续上升状态,并且具有较大的上升空间。
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| 关 键 词： | 食物消费 氮 秩相关系数 ARIMA模型 城镇居民 中国 |
Change Trend of Chinese Urban Residents Food-nitrogen Consumption |
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| WANG Jun-neng,XU Zhen-cheng,PENG Xiao-chun.Change Trend of Chinese Urban Residents Food-nitrogen Consumption[J].Agricultural Science ＆ Technology,2010,11(4):176-179. |
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| Authors: | WANG Jun-neng XU Zhen-cheng PENG Xiao-chun |
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| Institution: | 1.South China Institute of Environmental Sciences,Ministry of Environmental Protection,Guangzhou 510655;2.College of Resources ＆ Environment,Hunan Agricultural University,Changsha 410128 ) |
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| Abstract: | Change trend of Chinese urban residents＇ per capita food-nitrogen annual consumption from 1981 to 2007 was analyzed and predicted by using ARIMA time-series model in order to reveal the change of urban food-nitrogen consumption during the China＇s urbanization process.Results showed that after 1980s,the annual consumption of Chinese urban residents＇ food-nitrogen had a change trend of ＂ increase-decrease-increase＂ and generally presented as a slight increasing trend;With the acceleration of rapid economic development and urbanization process,Chinese urban residents＇ food-nitrogen consumption will still keep a rising trend in future,and also has a large rising space. |
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| Keywords: | Food consumption Nitrogen ARIMA model Urban residents China |
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