基于缺失面板数据分析粮食产量与影响因素的关系

为我国粮食生产提供参考,利用2003—2011年的省际面板数据,在部分数据缺失的情况下,对缺失数据进行填补,结合ARMA模型及空间相关性,进而利用完备面板数据对粮食单产进行分位数回归,分析各影响因素在不同分位点上与粮食单产的关系。结果表明:有效灌溉面积比例、单位面积化肥施用量、单位耕地动力及粮食类零售价格增长指数对单位面积粮食产量起促进作用,农业生产资料价格增长指数对粮食单产作用为负,单位劳动力对其影响在各分位点表现不一。保证耕地面积、提高灌溉效率、积极预防自然灾害对粮食产量的提高至关重要。

Relationships between Grain Yield and Influence Factors Based on Missing Panel Data Analysis

The relationships between different influencing factors on different quantiles and grain yield are analyzed by using panel data of provinces from 2003 to 2011, filling up the missing data under the missing condition of part data by ARMA model and spatial correlation and achieving quantile regression of grain yield by means of the complete panel data to provide a reference for grain production in China.Results: The grwoth indexes of effective irrigation area proportion, chemical fertilizer application quantity per unit area, plantation power per unit and grain retail price have the promotion effect on grain yield per unit area but the increase index of agricultural means of production price has the negative effect on grain yield per unit area.The labor force per unit has the different effect on grain yield per unit area at different quantiles.The measures to ensure agricultural acreage, increase irrigation efficiency and actively prevent natural disaster have the crucial effect on increase of grain yield.