基于粮食生产能力的APEC地区粮食安全评价

 【目的】以具有典型代表性且在世界粮食供给体系中占据重要地位的亚太经合组织（Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation，APEC）地区为研究区域，开展基于粮食生产能力的粮食安全评价研究。【方法】利用机制法模型测算区域的土地生产潜力和粮食生产潜力，并以此作为粮食安全评价的基础；分别从粮食生产与消费、粮食增产潜力、人口承载等方面建立指标体系，应用层次分析法（AHP）分析APEC各成员体的粮食安全形势。【结果】APEC地区粮食生产潜力总和为17.39亿t，其中中国的潜力总产5.69亿t，为区域内最高。比照当前的粮食现实产量，总体来说，各成员体均具有一定的增产空间，但如果综合考虑人口承载、粮食消费等情况，各成员体的粮食安全形势呈现分化态势，除日本、韩国外，发达成员体总体上略好于不发达成员体。【结论】如何最大限度地挖掘区域粮食生产潜力并有效控制人口增长将是保障APEC地区粮食安全的重要途径和重要挑战。

A Food Security Assessment in APEC Based on Grain Productivity

【Objective】The APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation), due to its great typicality and importance in world food system, was selected to conduct food security assessment among its economies in this study. 【Method】Intended to highlight grain production in food system, this study firstly used the mechanism method to calculate the productivity potential of radiation, thermal, climatic, land and grain production-potential in APEC region regressively, which was taken as the basis of food security assessment. And then some important indicators were selected to build the index system to assess the food security level in each APEC member economies by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). 【Result】The results show that the overall grain production potential of APEC region reaches as high as 1.7 billion tons. Compared with the real grain production of 1.1 billion tons, there is a possibility for all the economies to increase their production. While concerning population carrying capacity and food consumption, food security level in each economy varies greatly, and developed economies are in general more secured than developing economies, except for Japan and Korea. 【Conclusion】Exploring grain production-potential at uttermost is a reasonable way to improve food security, at the same time, it is necessary to control population explosion, especially for those overloaded regions.