1985—2018年中国甘蔗生产时空变化及区域优势分析

为探究中国甘蔗生产的时空变化及区域优势，基于1985—2018年全国各省(不包含香港、澳门特别行政区和台湾省)及各县的甘蔗生产数据，分析我国甘蔗种植面积、产量和单产的时空动态变化特征，量化种植面积、单产及互作等因素对甘蔗产量的贡献率，同时评估全国甘蔗生产的优势度。结果表明:1)1985—2018年，中国甘蔗种植面积先增加后下降，产量和种植面积变化趋势一致，主要集中在桂中南、滇西南、粤西和琼北等区域；2)在我国甘蔗种植区域内，近50%的县种植面积和产量降幅均>50%，42%的县单产增幅>50%；3)中国甘蔗产量贡献长期表现为种植面积主导，2010—2018年单产主导比例下降约5%；4)2010—2018年，中国甘蔗的生产优势地区一直是广西壮族自治区、云南省和广东省。2001—2018年，国内原料蔗生产的高成本和国外进口食糖的低价格造成我国食糖供给失衡、企业亏损，严重限制了甘蔗产业的发展。因此，应合理布局甘蔗种植面积、提高甘蔗单产、积极推进甘蔗生产全程机械化等，以降低甘蔗的生产成本。

Spatio-temporal changes and regional advantage analysis of sugarcane production in China from 1985 to 2018

In order to explore the temporal and spatial changes and regional advantages of sugarcane production in China, based on the sugarcane production data of all provinces and counties(excluding Hong Kong, Macao Special Administrative Region and Taiwan Province)from 1985 to 2018, this study analyzed the temporal and spatial dynamic changes of the planting area, production and yield of sugarcane in China. The contribution rate of planting area, yield and interaction to sugarcane production were quantified, and the advantage degree of sugarcane production in China was evaluated. The results showed that: 1)From 1985 to 2018, the sugarcane planting area in China increased first and then decreased, and the change trends of both yield and planting area were the same. These areas were mainly concentrated in the south of Guangxi, southwest of Yunnan, west of Guangdong and north of Hainan. 2)In China''s sugarcane planting areas, nearly 50% of the county''s planting area and production decreased by more than 50%, and 42% of the county''s yield increased by more than 50%. 3)The long-term contribution of sugarcane yield in China was dominated by area, and the dominant proportion of sugarcane yield per unit area decreased by about 5% from 2010 to 2018. 4)From 2010 to 2018, the dominant areas of sugarcane production in China were Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Yunnan Province and Guangdong Province. From 2001 to 2018, the high production cost of domestic raw sugarcane and the low price of imported sugar have caused the imbalance of sugar supply and losses of enterprises, which has seriously limited the development of sugarcane industry. Therefore, the sugarcane planting area should be reasonably planned to improve the unit yield of sugarcane, and actively promote the whole process mechanization of sugarcane production, and reduce the production cost of sugarcane industry.