工业化进程对农村劳动力价格上涨的影响——基于劳动力转移的中介效应检验

基于我国1995—2015年29省的省域面板数据,利用中介效应模型验证工业化发展是否通过促进农业劳动力转移带来农村劳动力价格上涨。结果表明:农业劳动力转移在工业化进程与农村劳动力价格上涨之间发挥中介作用。工业化水平增加1%,农村劳动力价格将上涨0.19%。工业化发展对工业化中期的农村劳动力价格具有显著的正向影响,但是工业化后期开始,其对劳动力价格的影响呈负相关关系。工业化发展通过促进劳动力转移带来农村劳动力价格上涨的趋势主要发生在东部地区,其次是中部地区,西部地区最弱。

Impact of industrialization on rural labor price: Based on the test of the mediating effect of labor migration

To examine the relations among industrialization,agricultural labor migration and rural labor price,the mediating effect model with panel data of 29 provinces from 1995 to 2015 was introduced in this study.The results showed that agricultural labor migration was a mediating variable between industrialization and rural labor price change.The industrialization level increases by 1%,the rural labor price would rise by 0.19%.Specifically,the industrialization displayed a significant positive impact on the rural labor price in the middle stage of industrialization,whereas it had a negative correlation with the rural labor price in the later stage of industrialization.Meanwhile the industrialization brought higher labor price through the promotion of labor migration,which was mainly in the eastern region followed by the central region and the weakest in the western region in China.