运用混沌理论预测粮食产量

运用混沌理论的原理和方法预测粮食产量,探寻一种准确率高、时效长、成本低、便于普及推广的区域粮食产量预测方法。把粮食单产序列分解为趋势产量和气象产量2部分,用5年滑动平均法求得趋势产量后,通过分析粮食单产中气象产量分量的时间序列的变化规律,论述了由气候变化引起气象产量的年际波动具有混沌特性,具体表现为平稳的马尔柯夫型状态转移概率和相同的概率密度分布特点。并以陕西省武功县、河北省禹县和涿州3个地区1949—1999年小麦单产序列为例,运用MATLAB7.0语言编程构建了粮食产量的混沌预测模型,对2000年小麦单产进行预测,准确率分别为98.1%、92.1%和97.1%。预测结果表明,粮食产量的混沌预测法相对准确而有效,准确率在92%以上,可作为粮食产量预测的新方法加以推广。

Prediction of grain yield using chaos theory

Analyzing the interannual fluctuation of weather on grain yield,this paper establishes that the weather fluctuation has the Chaos characteristic resulted from climate variability.Based on the Chaos theory and wheat yield of Wugong in Shanxi province,Yuxian and Zhuozhou in Hebei province from 1949 to 1999,the yield predication models of these three districts have been set up.Using these models the predication veracity of wheat yield in the three districts in 2000 are 98.1%,92.1% and 97.1%,respectively.The yield prediction veracities are all above 92%.Chaos predication Model of grain yield can be recommended as a new method of yield prediction.