不同增温模式下我国松材线虫适生分布模拟与预测

使用近50年6—8月份平均温度场,在1 km×1 km空间尺度上计算了我国松材线虫(Bursaphelenchus xylophilus)气候适生概率,对松材线虫适生分布进行了数字化测报;分别在1.1、1.5、2.1、2.3、2.8、3.3℃增温模式下,预测了松材线虫气候适生概率分布。目前,气候适生概率较高的区域涉及山东、江苏、上海、浙江、安徽、河南、湖北、湖南、福建、重庆、贵州、四川东部、贵州东部、云南南部、广西北部、广东北部等大范围地区;叠加疫区、媒介昆虫、人为干扰数据之后,适生分布呈条带状,从东部沿海向西逐渐从高度适生过渡到不适生,高度适生区主要分布在辽宁、山东、江苏、上海、浙江、福建、湖南、广东、重庆、贵州等10个省份。随着温度增幅增加,适宜松材线虫发育生长的潜在区域逐渐向北、向西南转移,高度适生区呈逐渐缩小趋势,但山西、云南、辽宁、甘肃、陕西等省份的高度适生区明显扩大;中度适生区面积呈上下波动变化;适生区分布面积总体呈上升趋势,随中度适生区扩大及缩小而减小和增加;不适生区范围一直维持最高水平且变化较小。以像元为单位的测报预警结果改变了以往以行政区区划等大区域为空间评估单元的预测方式,实现了精细化、连续化的松材线虫适生分布模拟和预测,为实现我国松材线虫病的精细化空间测报奠定了基础。

Sp atial Ets imait on and Predi ction of Suitable Distribution of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus with Different Warming Modes in China

Based on the arithmetic mean temperature filed estimated by the temperature fields from June to August in recent 50 years, the suitable probability field of climate of B.xylophilus was assessed and the suitable distribution was mapped at 1 km×1 km.By the future warming modes predicted by Chinese scientists, the climatic suitability of B.xylophilus was esti-mated when the temperatures were increased by 1.1℃, 1.5℃, 2.1℃, 2.3℃, 2.8℃and 3.3℃, and finally the forecas-ted distribution was mapped with different warming modes.At present, the zones with high probabilities of climate suitabili-ty of B.xylophilus related to Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Anhui, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Fujian, Chongqing, Guizhou, Eastern Sichuan, Eastern Guizhou, Southern Yunnan, Northern Guangxi and Guangdong.After overlaying the data of epidemic areas, vector insects and human disturbance, the suitability of B.xylophilus was belt-like distributed, which was gradually transited from the highest suitability to unsuitability as the area spanned from the eastern coast to the West China.The highest suitability focused on the ten provinces of Liaoning, Shandong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Fujian, Hunan, Guangdong, Chongqing and Guizhou.As the warming was increased, the potential suitable re-gions of B.xylophilus would shift to the north and the southwest of our country, and the area of high suitable zones was de-creased gradually.However, these zones would greatly expand in the provinces of Shanxi, Yunnan, Liaoning, Gansu, and Shananxi.The moderate suitable area fluctuated upward and downward.The suitable area showed an upward trend, and was decreased with the enlargement and increased with the reducing of moderate suitable area.The unsuitable area had the highest scales in all temperature increase modes and changed smallest.The way of suitability assessment and prediction of B.yx lophilus could be specific to the pixel scale in 1 km×1 km spatial unit and make the same provinces or cities had dif-ferent suitable classes, which changed the former assessing way in administrative units, and would scientifically support the spatial forecast and control of B.xylophilus disease.