花期渍害胁迫下冬油菜生长及产量模拟研究

渍害是长江流域油菜生产中的多发性气象灾害,为了定量研究花期渍害影响下油菜生长及产量,预报及防控油菜花期渍害影响,以浙平四号和华油杂16为试验材料,通过分析花期渍害对浙平四号油菜生长及产量的影响规律,提出了油菜地上部单株干重、产量及产量构成渍害影响因子,初步建立了花期渍害影响下油菜地上部单株干重、产量及产量构成模型,渍害干物重影响因子为一元二次方程,渍害产量影响因子则呈对数方程。经利用水分控制盆栽试验资料检验,结果表明华油杂16油菜地上部单株干重及单株产量实测值与模拟值相关系数(r)、绝对误差(da)、绝对误差占实测值比率(dap)以及RMSE值分别为0.949 9、0.89 g/株、4.55%及1.09 g;0.920 1、7.89 g/株、39.02%及8.58 g/株。花期渍害下油菜地上部单株干重模拟精度较高,而单株产量的模拟精度较低,说明花期渍害在盆栽试验条件下的表现与田间试验有明显不同。所建模型可与本项目组先期研制的油菜生长模型结合,在进一步检验并获得区域和地点尺度天气预报、模型参数后可用于花期渍害发生时油菜生长及产量预报。

Studies on Simulation of Winter Rapeseed (Brassica napus L.) Growth and Yield Under Water-logging Stress at Anthesis

Water-logging is a kind of meteorological disasters in rapeseed production areas in the Yangze River valley. In order to quantitatively study the rapeseed growth and yield under water-logging condition, to forecast and control the effect of waterlogging on rapeseed at anthesis, this study took ZP4 and HYZ16 as experimental materials, analyzed the influence rule of waterlogging at anthesis on repeseed growth and yield; put forward waterlogging impact factors including above ground dry weight per plant, yield and yield components; initiatively constructed models for above ground dry weight per plant, yield, and yield components for ZP4. The water-logging impact factor for dry weight of per plant was the quadratic equation, and that for yield of per plant was the logarithm equation. The results of pot experiment utilizing water control showed that the correlation (r), average absolute difference (da), the ratio of da to average observation (dap), and the RMSE value of simulation and observation in rapeseed above ground dry weight per plant, and yield per plant for HYZ16 were 0.949 9, 0.89 g/plant, 4.55%, and 1.09 g; and 0.920 1, 789 g/plant, 39.02%, and 8.58 g/plant. Only the simulation for the above ground dry weight per plant was precise, the precisity for yield per plant was low, indicating that the water-loging at anthesis under field condition was different from that under pot condition. The models developed in this paper can be combined with the rapeseed growth model developed previousely, and thus be used in predicting rapeseed growth and yield with water-logging at anthesis after further validating and obtaining regional and site weather forecast, and model parameters.