气候变暖对马铃薯晚疫病发生发展的影响

利用统计学方法,进行多因素配置组合,分析气候变暖对马铃薯晚疫病发生发展的影响。结果表明,马铃薯晚疫病发生发展和流行的适宜气象条件,单因子作用并不显著,以马铃薯7月开花并地下块茎形成期降水量与降水日数的配置组合影响最大;8月上旬地下块茎速生膨大期阴寡高湿天气气候条件次之;6月分枝至花序形成期大气湿润条件影响最小。20世纪90年代以来,随全球性气候变暖,主要影响因子配置组合值明显增大,尤以马铃薯开花期降水量与降水日数、地下块茎速生膨大期大气湿润度与日照时数配置组合值增幅更大,进而导致马铃薯晚疫病病田率呈明显上升趋势。

Effects of Climate Warming on the Occurrence and Development of Potato Late Blight

By using statistic method,multi-factors allocation combination was carried out to analyze the effect of climate warming on occurrence of potatoes late blight.The results showed that the appropriate weather conditions for occurrence and prevailing of potato late blight,single-factor effect is not significant,the precipitation and rainfall days allocation of potato flowers in July and the underground tuber formation stage have the greatest effects;followed by the cloud high humidity weather in early August;the last is wet atmosphere in June.Since 1990s,with warming of global climate,main influencing factors allocation value increased obviously,especially for allocation combination of potato flowering period rainfall volume and days,atmosphere humidity and sunshine hours in ground tuber growth rapidly period,which lead potato late blight rate increasing obviously.