长江三角洲城乡居民食物消费结构演变及农业生产结构调整

在广泛收集历史资料的基础上，通过居民调查和专家咨询，采用GM（1，1）模型，对长江三角洲区域城乡居民食物消费结构进行了分析，结果表明，长江三角洲城乡居民的食物消费结构正在发生显变化，城市居民的畜禽产品消费将趋于稳定，而农村居民的畜禽产品消费将显增加，城乡居民对水产品的消费均将显增加，在动物性食物消费的结构比例上，城乡居民均在向1／3猪牛羊肉，1／3家禽产品和1／3水产品的比例趋势比较，植物性食物消费中，粮食的直接消费呈上升趋势，尤其是农村居民，因此，在中长期内，拉动长江三角洲食物消费总量增长的关键因素是城乡居民人口的增加和农村居民食物消费结构的改善。

Agricultural structure adjustment and dynamic changes of food consumption between urban and rural residents in the Yangtze River Delta

ccording to the comprehensive collection of agricultural statistics through residents survey and experts consultation,the food con sumption structure of urban and rural residents was analyzed with the projection of GM(1,1)model in the Yangtze River Delta.The results show that the food consumption structure has undergone remarkable changes.Firstly,the consup tion of animal products keeps stable in city and shows an increasing trend in rural area,and the dairy and fishery product consumption will increase sharply in city and village.Second ly,the consumption of animal products has increased to a pattern of“1-1-1”,i .e.,pork,beef and mutton accounting for about 1/3 of the total consumption poultry products for about 1/3,the fishery product for the rest 1/3.Thirdly,in plant products consumption,grain presents a steady decrease,especially wheat consumption,which accounted for less than 5% of the total grain consumption;vegetable consumption has kept a relatively stable situation;vegetable oil and fruit consump tion show an increase trend,especially in the rural areas.In short，the total population increase and the nutrition structure improvement of rural population would be the pushing factors resulting in an increase in the amount of food consum ption in the future.