黑龙江省主要农业气象灾害时序特征及其对大豆产量影响的灰色关联分析

为了探讨黑龙江省农业气象灾害对大豆产量的影响,基于1974—2016年黑龙江省农业气象灾害以及大豆产量的数据,采用数理统计方法,分析黑龙江省农业气象灾害和大豆产量时序变化特征。建立基于灰色关联分析法的数理模型,引入受灾范围和灾害强度构建受灾比率,以1998年为节点,将研究期划分为1982—1998年和1999—2016年2个阶段进行研究。结果表明:黑龙江省农业气象灾害对大豆生产存在负面影响;无论是受灾范围还是受灾强度,干旱都是第1阶段（1982—1998年）黑龙江省大豆生产的关键农业气象灾害;第2阶段（1999—2016年）洪涝灾害对灾害范围影响大,风雹对受灾强度影响大。第1阶段（1982—1998年）是大豆受灾严重的时期,4类灾害对大豆的总产和单产的影响都很大。在第2阶段（1999—2016年）,4类灾害对大豆单产的影响大于对总产的影响。

Main Agro-meteorological Disasters Heilongjiang: Sequential Characteristics and Grey Correlation Analysis of Their Effects on Soybean Yield

To discuss the effects of agro-meteorological disasters on soybean yield in Heilongjiang. Based on the data of agro-meteorological disasters and soybean yield in Heilongjiang from 1974 to 2016, we analyzed the sequential variation characteristics of agro- meteorological disasters and soybean yield with the mathematical statistics method, and established the mathematical model based on the gray correlation analysis, constructed the disaster rate with the disaster- affected range and the disaster intensity, and divided the research period into two stages from 1982- 1998 and 1999- 2016. The results showed that: the agro- meteorological disasters had a negative impact on soybean yield in Heilongjiang; in the view of the disaster- affected range and the disaster intensity perspective, the drought disaster was the key agro-meteorological disasters to affect the soybean yield in Heilongjiang during 1982-1998 (phase 1); the flood had a great impact on disaster-affected range, and the effects of wind hail on the disaster intensity were great during 1999-2016 (phase 2). In conclusion, the most serious period for soybean yield is phase 1 (during 1982-1998); 4 types of disasters have a greater impact on the total yield and yield per unit area of soybean; on the second stage from 1999 to 2016, the impact of 4 types of disasters on the yield per unit ares is greater than that on the total yield of soybean.