西藏自治区农村居民人均纯收入发展趋势的灰色GM(1,1)模型及因素分析

以近6年西藏自治区农村居民人均收入为研究对象，应用灰色系统建立了人均纯收入发展趋势的灰色GM(1,1)预测模型，运用关联度分析方法确定了反映农村居民不同收入来源的4项主要指标因素相对于纯收入的关联程度．分析得出：在未来5年中西藏农村居民人均收入平均年增长率达到24.695%，农村居民纯收入数量性状与4项指标之间关联度第一位的是第一产业收入，第二位的是第三产业收入，第三产业位居第四。

Tibet Autonomous Region, the per capita net income of rural residents trends Gray GM(1,1) model and factor analysis

Based on the data of six years＇ per capita income in Tibet, we built a forecasting model for the trend of its development following the rule of the gray system. Then we analyzed the correlation between per capita income and four sources of income. From the analysis we know that the per capita income in Tibet rural area will increase at a rate of 24.695%. The first factor affecting the income of rural area residents is the income from the primary industry, followed by tertiary-industry income, nonproductive income and secondary industry income.