基于人粮关系的湖南省耕地资源人口承载力研究

从人粮关系角度估算土地生产潜力,对耕地资源人口承载力进行研究,对保障国家粮食安全和区域可持续发展都具有十分重要的意义。通过应用土地资源人口承载力和土地资源人口承载指数模型研究了湖南省2000—2008年耕地资源的人粮关系状况,结果如下:(1)在现有生产力水平下,湖南省耕地资源可承载人口7 423.38万人,人口承载力指数为0.922,人粮关系基本平衡,但人粮关系状况分布不均衡,地区差异较大。(2)湖南省中北部、西部和南部3大区域耕地资源人口承载力2000—2004年处于逐年下降趋势,之后则逐年上升。(3)中北部人粮关系2004年后由盈余状态转为富裕状态,西部一直处于超载和临界超载的边缘,南部则多为盈余状态。表明湖南省耕地资源人口承载力地区差异较大,人口增长空间十分有限,今后应加强土地综合整治,改善土地生产条件,提高农业科技水平,以实现区域资源、人口与环境的可持续发展。

Research on Cultivated Land Carrying Capacity Based on Human-Grain Relationship in Hu′nan Province

With the view of human—grain relationship to estimate the land potential productivity and the study of cultivated land carrying capacity,it is great significance of the protection of national food security and regional sustainable development.This paper studied the situation of human—grain relationship of cultivated land in Hu′nan 2000—2008 by using the land carrying capacity model and land carrying capacity index.The results were as follows:(1) Under the present productivity level,Hu′nan Province could carry a population of 74.233 8 million and the index was 0.922,with a basic balance human—grain relationship.However,distribution of human—grain relationship was unever.Most parts of the south area were going to face an overload population;(2) before 2004,the areas of cultivated land carrying capacity were in a yearly declining trend in the north—central part,the west part and south part of Hu′nan Province,and then the areas were gradually increased;(3) according to the situation of human—grain relationship,the north—central part of Hu′nan Province was from the surplus state into a prosperous state,the west part of Hu′nan Province was always overload or on the verge of critical overload,the south Hu′nan Province was surplus.This study showed that the greatly regional differences of land carrying capacity in Hu′nan Province occurred,and the potential of population growth was limited,thus,we should strengthen the comprehensive improvement of land,improve the land production conditions,and promote the level of agricultural science and technology to achieve the sustainable development of regional resources,population and environment.