林芝市公路地质灾害易发性区划及气象预报模型

目的]对西藏自治区林芝市公路地质灾害易发性区划及气象预报模型进行研究，为实施该市境内公路沿线地质灾害气象预报提供理论依据。方法]首先，选取了林芝市公路沿线15 km缓冲区内的断层密度、土壤类型、坡度、沟谷密度、年降水量、土地利用、裸岩率和距河流的距离8个地质灾害易发性区划因子，通过信息量及逻辑回归方法确定各区划因子的系数，得到了地质灾害易发性区划模型；再进一步依据地质灾害发生当日、前1日、前2日和前3日的日降水数据，使用逻辑回归方法建立了地质灾害气象预报模型。结果]林芝市公路沿线15 km缓冲区内的大部分地区地质灾害易发性概率小于0.4,且离道路越近，地质灾害易发性概率越大。将该预报模型用于历史地质灾害点数据进行检验，发现该模型的预报准确率为85.71%,漏报率为14.29%。结论]受地形地貌、降水资料等影响，该模型预报结果可能与实际情况存在一定的偏差，但能反映基本趋势。

Zoning of Highway Geological Hazard Susceptibility and Meteorological Forecast Model in Linzhi City

Objective] The susceptibility zoning and meteorological forecast model of highway geological hazards were studied in order to provide a theoretical basis for implementing the meteorological forecast of geological hazards along the highways in Linzhi City, Tebit Autonomous Region. Methods] Firstly, eight zoning factors, including fault density, soil type, slope, valley density, annual precipitation, land use, bare rock ratio and distance from rivers, were selected in the 15 km buffer zone along the highway in Linzhi City. The coefficients of each zoning factor were determined by the information and logistic regression method, and the zoning model of geological hazard susceptibility was obtained. Secondly, based on the daily precipitation data of the rainfall occurrence day, the first day, the second and and the third day before the landslide hazards, a meteorological forecast model of geological hazards was established by using logistic regression method. Results] The susceptibility of most areas in the 15 km buffer zone along the highway in Linzhi City was less than 0.4, and the closer to the road, the greater probability of geological hazard susceptibility. The accuracy rate of the model was 85.71%, and the failure rate was 14.29%. Conclusion] Affected by topography, geomorphology and precipitation data, the prediction results of the established model may deviate from the actual situation, but it can reflect the basic trend.