江苏省水资源利用相对效率时间分异与影响因素

目的]全面客观地研究2005—2014年江苏省用水效率的时间分异性,为江苏省更好地开展水资源可持续利用工作,提高水资源利用效率提供有针对性地科学理论依据。方法]选取江苏省2005—2014年的相关指标数据,运用传统数据包络分析模型及其改进模型,计算得到江苏省的用水技术冗余率、规模冗余率及水资源相对利用效率;并结合典型相关分析模型,探究影响水资源利用相对效率相关因素。结果]规模冗余率与人均地区生产总值符合环境库兹涅茨曲线。技术冗余率与人均地区生产总值呈负相关。运用典型相关分析方法研究发现影响两种冗余率的因素也并不完全相同。结论]近10a江苏省水资源利用效率呈现平稳增长,其中影响技术冗余率的因素主要是万元地区生产总值用水量和第三产业比重;而影响规模冗余率的因素则为水资源开发利用率和万元地区生产总值用水量。

Temporal Change of Relative Efficiency of Water Resource Use and Influencing Factors in Jiangsu Province

Objective] To increase the water resource use efficiency in a sustainable way and Provide theoretical basis for specific management in Jiangsu Province, we studied the temporal changes in relative efficiency of water resource use in Jiangsu Province from 2005 to 2014. Methods] We collected data on water resources from 2005 to 2014 in Jiangsu Province, and calculated the technical redundancy rate, scale redundancy rate and relative efficiency of water resource use by traditional data envelopment analysis(DEA) model and its modified version; and detected significant influencing factors of the relative efficiency of water resources use using canonical correlation analysic(CCA) model. Results] The relationship between scale redundancy rate and per capita GDP accorded with enriroment Kuznets curre(EKC), and technical redundancy rate was negatively correlated with per capita gross domestic product. The factors influencing technical redundancy rate and scale redundancy rate were not exactly the same.Conclusion] The relative efficiency of water resource use increased steadily with the time, the main factors affecting the technical redundancy rate were water consumption per unit output value of ten thousand Yuan and proportion of the tertiary industry; but the main factors influencing scale redundancy rate were exploitation and utilization ratio of water resources and water consumption per unit output value of ten thousand Yuan.