中国居民口粮消费特征变化及安全耕地数量

明晰中国口粮消费的变化特征是保障中国粮食安全的根本。全国尺度的中国健康与营养调查数据提供了多期的中国城乡居民口粮消费调查数据。文章利用食物成分表将中国健康与营养调查数据折算成原粮,分析1997-2011年中国城乡居民口粮消费的数量与结构变化特征,以期明晰中国城乡居民口粮消费的真实情景。结果表明:1)近年来中国城乡居民口粮消费量明显减少,1997-2011年间,中国城镇居民口粮消费量从168.4 kg/a下降到111.2 kg/a,农村居民从209.6 kg/a下降到131.5 kg/a,全国平均水平从196.6 kg/a下降到124.7 kg/a。以发达国家或地区口粮消费的125 kg/a稳定态为参考,中国城乡居民口粮消费的下降区间可能有限。2)城乡口粮消费的差距在缩小。1997-2011年间,中国城镇与农村居民的口粮消费差距由41.2 kg/a缩小为20.3 kg/a,而且两者也正由存在显著性差异向无显著差异转变,最终两者可能会归为统一值。3)2011年中国口粮绝对安全的耕地保障面积为2 691.6万hm2,约占1/4的基本农田面积。《全国种植业结构调整规划(2016-2020年)》稳定2020年稻谷、小麦8亿亩播种面积,极有可能会造成稻谷与小麦的生产过剩,产生口粮饲用或卖粮难的现象。

Variation of grain consumption characteristics and safety cultivated land area in China

With the development of the economy, income growth and urbanization process play a positive role in influencing diet adequacy in China.Rising consumption of meat, egg and milk results in the reduction of ration grain. China's food security policy is also transferred to "Ensuring ration grain safety". This paper aimed to study variation characteristics of grain ration consumption in China and the demand of cultivated land area in China to provide adequate ration grain. So China's government can develop agricultural policies to ensure China's food security. Based on the survey data, from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) on the dietary characteristics of urban and rural residents since 1989, CHNS Panel data of 1997, 2000, 2004, 2006, 2009 and 2011 were used in this paper. In 2011, 5928 households in nine provinces and three municipalities were covered. For comparison purposes, all grain foods were converted into raw cereals based on the energy coefficients of food products. The major findings of our study were: (1) In recent years, grain ration consumption of China's urban and rural residents decreased significantly. The consumption per capita of urban and rural residents decreased from 168.4 to 111.2 kg, and 209.6 to 131.5 kg from 1997 to 2011, respectively. The national average decreased 196.6 to 124.7 kg in the same period. Now, per capita consumption of grain ration in the USA, Germany, Chinese Taiwan, Japan, etc., remains stable at the level of 125 kg. As such, there might not be enough reduction space for the consumption level of grain ration in the future in China. (2) The disparity of grain ration consumption between cities and countries diminished gradually, from 41.2kg in 1997 to 20.3 kg in 2011. And in 2011, there was no significant difference between the two means. In the end, the consumption level of rural residents was the same as urban residents. (3) The national consumption of grain ration decreased from 243.06 million tons to 168.04 million tons from 1997 to 2011due to the reduction of per capita consumption, and the ratio of national grain ration consumption to total grain production reduced by about 20 per cent in the same period.Correspondingly,the minimum area of cultivated land demanded decreased from 41.29 million hm2 in 1997 to 26.92 million hm2 in 2011. (4) There was little difference between the results based on the data from National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China and CHNS, and the trends were also roughly the same. However, the consumption of urban residents calculated by the data from NBS was lower than the result by the data from CHNS, and the situation of the consumption of rural residents was just on the contrary. (5) In China, rice and wheat are the major staple foods. The consumption of rice and wheat was significantly reduced compared with other ration grains. So now we don't need so much cultivated land to produce ration grains, and the policy of stabilizing the planting area of ration grains(rice and wheat) implemented by the Chinese central government may not be proper and deserve further development.