1980～2007年南宁蔗区甘蔗气象产量变化及影响因子分析

【目的】探讨气候变化对南宁蔗区甘蔗产量的影响,旨在为南宁甘蔗生产管理提供科学指导。【方法】基于贝尔产量模式,定量分析了近年来南宁蔗区甘蔗气象产量与气候因子的关系。【结果】1980~2007年南宁蔗区甘蔗气象产量单产平均增幅为1276.7kg/ha;整体而言,南宁蔗区甘蔗气象产量在年际间差异较大,气象产量绝对值较大的年份多集中在20世纪80~90年代以及2005年以后,各年份气象产量的平均值为1002.4kg/ha;气候影响因子α越大,该年的气象产量越大,反之越小;影响南宁蔗区甘蔗产量的气象要素主要是相对湿度。【结论】南宁地区甘蔗生长期内相对湿度较低时将导致甘蔗减产,相对湿度较大时则有利于甘蔗增产。在南宁蔗区的甘蔗生产中,加强相关的农业管理措施,提高大气相对湿度,能减少其对甘蔗产量的影响。

Analysis on climatic factors affecting sugarcane meteorological yield in Nanning area during 1980-2007

Objective]The present study was conducted to explore the effect of climate change on sugarcane yield in Nanning area in order to provide with references for production management of sugarcane in Nanning. Method]Based on Baier yield model, the relationship between sugarcane meteorological yield and climatic factors in Nanning area was analyzed using the meteorological and yield data from 1980-2007. Result]The average increment of sugarcane meteorological yield was recorded as 1276.7 kg/ha in Nanning area from 1980 to 2007. Totally, the inter-annual change of sugarcane meteorological yield was large and the absolute value was high during 1980-1990 and after 2005. And average sugarcane meteorological yield of all years was 1002.4 kg/ha, which followed a positive trend of climatic influencing factor （α）. Relative humidity was the most important influencing factor affecting sugarcane meteorological yield. Conclusion]During sugarcane growth period in Nanning, low relative humidity resulted in lower sugarcane yield and vice versa. The influence of relative humidity on sugarcane production must be understood and management should be taken to increase the air relative humidity in the environment to improve sugarcane yield.