| 高压燃气管道第三方破坏失效概率计算 |
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| 引用本文： | 靳书斌,郑洪龙,侯磊,刘佳,魏巍,杨玉锋.高压燃气管道第三方破坏失效概率计算[J].油气储运,2014(5):510-514. |
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| 作者姓名： | 靳书斌 郑洪龙 侯磊 刘佳 魏巍 杨玉锋 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]中国石油大学(北京),北京102249; [2]中国石油管道科技研究中心,河北廊坊065000; [3]西安西北石油管道公司,陕西西安710018 |
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| 摘 要： | 介绍了对城镇高压燃气管段进行定量风险评价的重要性,分析认为城镇燃气管道失效的主要原因为第三方破坏。为计算城市高压燃气管道的第三方破坏失效概率,提出了基于修正因子的失效概率计算法和通用失效概率主观修正法两种失效概率计算模型,并针对实际城市高压燃气管道,分别计算得出两个失效概率值,最终取较大值作为定量风险评价的失效概率值。采用两种模型计算管道第三方破坏失效概率能够起到相互比较、相互验证的作用,使计算结果更加准确可靠。该方法可为我国城镇燃气管道定量风险评价研究提供参考。（图1,表4,参15）
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| 关 键 词： | 第三方破坏 定量风险评价 高压燃气管道 失效概率模型 |
Calculation of failure probability of the third-party interference for high pressure gas pipeline |
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| Institution: | JIN Shubin, ZHENG Honglong, HOU Lei, LIU Jia, WEI Wei, YANG Yufeng( China University of Petroleum (Beijing), Beijing, 102249; 2. PetroChina Pipeline R ＆ D Center, Langfang, Hebei, 065000 3. Xi＇an Northwest Petroleum Pipeline Company, Xi＇an, Shaanxi, 710018) |
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| Abstract: | This paper introduces the significance of quantitative risk assessment of urban high-pressure pipeline, and concludes that the main reason leading to urban gas pipeline failure is the third-party interference. In order to calculate the failure probability from the third party interference for urban high-pressure gas pipeline, two kinds of failure probability calculation model are proposed, namely, the failure probability calculation method based on correction factor and the subjective correction method of general failure probability. According to actual urban high-pressure gas pipelines, two failure probability values are calculated respectively, and finally the maximum is taking as the failure probability value of quantitative risk assessment. Failure probability of the third party interference calculated by two kinds of models can compare and verify with each other, making the calculation more accurate. This method can provide a reference to the quantitative risk assessment of urban gas pipelines in China. |
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| Keywords: | the third-party interference quantitative risk assessment high pressure gas pipeline failure probability model |
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