江苏省小麦籽粒蛋白质达标弱筋小麦的适生性分析与评价

【目的】弱筋小麦是制作饼干糕点类食品的原料,其烘烤特性很大程度上取决于蛋白质的质和量。小麦籽粒蛋白质含量（GPC,%）不仅由品种的遗传特性决定,还受到气候、土壤、栽培措施等影响。明确江苏省弱筋小麦适宜种植区域以及其地理、气候影响因素,可为江苏弱筋小麦的种植区划提供理论依据。【方法】在2年江苏省小麦品质抽样调查数据的基础上,利用随机森林算法筛选重要性指标,结合单组率Meta分析及其亚组分析,探究地理位置及气象因子对江苏省小麦籽粒蛋白质含量（GPC）达到弱筋小麦标准可能性的影响。【结果】2个年度江苏省小麦GPC平均值为13.92 %,其中2018年、2019年小麦GPC变幅分别为11.06%—18.09%、10.20%—16.50%,平均值分别为14.52%、13.33%,GPC<12.5%的样品分别占比10%、29.71%。从地理分布看,江苏的东南沿湖沿海地区小麦GPC达到弱筋小麦标准的可能性最高,达标可能性最高可达92%,其次是江苏东部沿海地区以及江苏西北部沿河一带。种植地距离一级河流和湖泊或者海岸线的最短距离为20—30 km时,达标可能性相对较高,为23.95%。从气象因子方面看,生育前期特别是出苗期和拔节期,降雨量对江苏弱筋小麦的形成影响较为重要;生育后期尤其是开花期以及灌浆期后期,积温对小麦GPC的影响更重要;且出苗和拔节期的日照时数及开花期的降雨量对江苏弱筋小麦的形成亦很重要,其中,江苏小麦GPC达标弱筋小麦标准的可能性与出苗期的降雨量呈正相关,而与出苗和拔节期的日照时数、拔节期的降雨量以及灌浆后期积温则呈负相关。【结论】江苏弱筋小麦适宜的种植范围受到水系分布与气象因素的共同制约,主要集中在东部沿海和东南沿海沿湖地区。在出苗、拔节期降雨量和开花灌浆期积温适宜的情况下,西北沿河一带的小麦GPC也可达标弱筋小麦标准。品质区划应重点考虑地理位置（水系分布等）和气候分布。

Study on the Adaptability of Wheat Reaching the Protein Content Standard of Soft Wheat in Jiangsu Province

【Objective】As the material of making biscuits and cakes, the baking properties of soft wheat flour is determined by its content and quality of protein. The grain protein content (GPC, %) is not only determined by genetic factors, but also affected by environment and farming practices. In order to provide suggestions for quality region classification for the soft wheat areas in Jiangsu province, this paper explored the suitable planting areas and influencing factors of soft wheat.【Method】Based on the two-year investigation data related to wheat quality in Jiangsu province, the random forest algorithm was used to screen important indicators, and the meta-analysis of proportions was employed to analyze the impacts of geolocation and meteorological factors on the possibility of wheat GPC reaching the standard of soft wheat under the ordinary farming practices. 【Result】 The average of two-year wheat GPC was 13.92%. In 2018, GPC ranged from 11.06% to 18.09% and the average value was 14.52%, in which GPC of 10% samples was lower than 12.5%. In 2019, the range of GPC was 10.20%-16.50% and the average value was 13.33%, in which GPC of 29.71% samples was lower than 12.5%. With application of random forest algorithm and meta-analysis, it was found that the GPC of wheat growing in the southeastern part along sea and lake of Jiangsu was most likely to meet the standard of soft wheat, and the possibility of which was 92%, followed by the northwestern part along river and the eastern coastal area in Jiangsu. When the plantation was 20-30 km away from the primary river and lake or coastline, the probability of reaching the standard was relatively high, which was 23.95%. In terms of meteorological factors, precipitation had the greatest influence on the formation of soft wheat in Jiangsu province during the early growth stage, especially at emergence stage and joining stage. The impact of accumulated temperature was more important during the later stage of growth stage, especially during grain filling stage and flowering stage. In addition, the sunshine hours at emergence stage and jointing stage and the precipitation at flowering stage were also more important for the formation of soft wheat in Jiangsu province. Among them, the precipitation at emergence stage was positively correlated with the possibility of wheat GPC reaching the standard of soft wheat in Jiangsu province. However, the sunshine hours during emergence stage, the precipitation and the sunshine hours during jointing stage, and the accumulated temperature during filling stage were opposite. 【Conclusion】 The suitable planting areas for soft gluten wheat in Jiangsu province were mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal areas and southeastern coastal and lake areas. With suitable precipitation during the emergence and jointing period and accumulated temperature during flowering and filling stage, the northwest areas along the river would also have high possibility to produce soft wheat. Thus, the geographic location (distribution of river systems, etc.) and climate should be considered when zoning the suitable planting areas for different quality types of wheat.