城镇家庭收入分布变动对其食物消费的影响——兼论与静态模拟结果的比较

了解不同方案设定下收入分布变化对食物消费结构的变动及其前景有着重要的现实意义。采用广东省城镇住户调查数据,运用两阶段需求分析法(Engel-QUAIDS),动态模拟城镇家庭收入分布变化对其食物消费的影响,并与静态的模拟结果进行比较。结果表明:1)在不同收入组的城镇家庭中,不同种类食物的消费水平和消费结构存在显著差异。2)保持收入分布格局不变、缩小或是拉大收入差距的情景方案都会明显增加城镇家庭各类食物消费量;不同方案中增长幅度有显著差异,缩小收入差距的方案模拟最具明显优势,会促进各类食物消费总量的快速增长,但乳品消费的增幅总为最低。3)相较于动态收入分布的模拟结果,传统的静态收入模拟倾向于低估蛋类、乳品和蔬果类消费总量;而在对粮食、油脂类和肉类消费量的估计中,缩小收入差距的静态模拟有着较为明显的高估倾向。因此,在对未来食物消费进行预测时,需要充分考虑收入分布的动态变化这一因素。

The impacts of income distribution changes of urban households on food consumption: A contrast study to the result from static simulation

The changes of income distribution under different schemes have important practical significance to the changes of the structure of food consumption. Based on urban household survey data in Guangdong Province, this paper adopts a two-stage demand analysis (Engel-QUAIDS) model to simulate the dynamic impacts of household income distribution on food consumption and makes a contrast study with the result in static simulation. Empirical results show that: 1) the consumption levels and structures of food in urban households with different incomes are significantly different; 2) all of the scenarios maintain the same income distribution pattern and narrow or wide income gaps have considerable impacts on specified food consumption with different growth rates. The simulation of income gap reduction has the most obvious advantage, which will promote the rapid growth of total food consumption. But the increase of dairy consumption is the lowest; and 3) compared with the simulation results of dynamic income distribution, the traditional static income simulation trends to underestimate the total consumptions of eggs, dairy products, vegetables and fruits. In the estimation of grain, oil and meat consumption, the static simulation of income gap reduction has a tendency of overestimation. Therefore, the dynamic change of income distribution should be fully considered in the prediction of food demand projections.