基于MODIS和NOAA数据尺度转换的若尔盖植被变化研究

为获得若尔盖地区较长时间序列的遥感植被指数,采用重采样技术和一元线性回归方法实现了GIMMS NDVI和MODIS NDVI的空间尺度转换和时间尺度外推。结果表明:（1）不同重采样方法对MODIS NDVI数据的影响与空间尺度有关,对GIMMS NDVI数据的影响则与空间尺度关系不大;（2）空间分辨率2.5 km,对不同植被类型可建立GIMMS NDVI和MODIS NDVI数据的一元线性转换关系,利用GIMMS NDVI拟合的结果与MODIS数据的差值统计符合正态分布;（3）1982—2013年,以1998年为节点若尔盖地区的植被先退化后逐渐恢复,尽管近几年植被指数平均水平高于研究初期,但局部地区的植被退化形势仍然比较严峻。     

基于LAI时间序列重构数据的冬小麦物候监测

农作物物候信息对农作物长势监测和估产具有重要意义。该文以河北省中南部冬小麦为研究对象,以叶面积指数(LAI,leaf area index)为同化量,采用重采样粒子滤波算法同化WOFOST(world food studies)作物生长模型和遥感观测LAI,重构LAI时间序列数据,基于重构数据提取冬小麦返青期、抽穗期和成熟期等关键物候期。重构结果表明,重构的LAI具有良好的时间连续性和空间连续性,可减缓WOFOST作物模型LAI变化剧烈程度,峰值出现时间与遥感LAI曲线基本同步,且可一定程度上解决遥感观测LAI数值整体偏低和数据缺失的问题。物候期监测结果表明,在空间分布上与冬小麦实际生长状况基本相符,时间上也较为合理,但因在返青期存在LAI高初始值、成熟期存在LAI下限不确定性等问题致使在具体日期存在偏差。     

星基差分GPS用于林区高分辨率遥感图像几何精校正

为解决林区缺乏大比例尺地形图而难以进行高空间分辨率遥感图像几何精校正问题,采用基于广域差分技术的星基差分GPS精确测定地面控制点(GCP),以多项式变换进行QuickBird pan(0.61 m)图像几何精校正.结果表明,全部GCP的点位误差均小于1个像元,总的点位误差为0.411 9.在进行图像灰度重采样中,最邻近点法、双线性内插法和三次褶积法的效果均无明显差异;就信息量和灰度值变动情况而言,以三次褶积法略好;就图像灰度保真而言,以最邻近点法略好.     

Roles of bootstrap resampling,measure of central tendency,and method for calculating thermal units when developing phenology models for pest management

The successful development of phenology models from field studies depends on many factors, some of which are entirely under the control of pest managers. For example, one such factor is the choice of method for calculating thermal units. In this study, we have demonstrated that four methods for calculating thermal units provided for acceptable predictions of one phenological event of one insect species, while another method for calculating thermal units did not. The measure of central tendency (mean or median) that is used to estimate lower developmental temperatures and required thermal summations is another factor that pest managers can control when developing phenology models from field studies. Here, we show that predictions that were made when using phenology models based on median lower developmental temperatures and median required thermal summations were superior to predictions that were made when using phenology models based on mean lower developmental temperatures and mean required thermal summations. The use of bootstrap vs. non-bootstrap estimates of lower developmental temperatures and required thermal summations is yet another factor that pest managers can control when developing phenology models from field studies. In this study, we found that calculating and using bootstrap estimates of lower developmental temperatures and required thermal summations in phenology models did not improve the predictions of one phenological event for one insect species. The implications of these and other findings are discussed.     

基于改进粒子滤波的农用车辆导航定位方法

针对农业机械导航系统中常用的Kalman滤波对多传感器数据进行融合的算法不适用于非线性农用车辆导航系统的问题,该文采用粒子滤波方法进行数据融合,以获得准确的导航定位信息;该算法增加抗野值步骤,有效削弱GPS跳变引起的误差;通过对重要密度函数进行改进,引入无迹卡尔曼滤波方法（UKF）,并采用不同重采样方法,有效抑制了粒子退化;增加MCMC步骤,减少了样本枯竭现象。仿真结果表明,改进后粒子滤波方法,可有效提高精度,减小导航误差,可满足农用车辆与作业机械的导航要求。     

Soil macrofaunal biodiversity in Amazonian pastures: Matching sampling with patterns

Soil biodiversity varies through space as influenced by habitat features and land-use history. The performance of any sampling strategy highly depends on its relevance with regards to this pattern. We surveyed the soil macrofaunal species richness in the pastures of the Benfica Field Station (Eastern Amazonia, State of Pará, Brazil) and described its variability in 4 independent replicate plots. We designed a within-plot sampling scheme that accounted for the soil spatial variation (stratified sampling). Replicated pasture plots had different species richness (49-65) corresponding to a low proportion (40-53%) of the total number of species (123). Pairs of replicated plots showed an outstandingly low number of shared species (28-41% of the species pool). Likewise, different classes of soil thickness, corresponding to a Ferralsol-Cambisol sequence, had different species richness (12-44) and exhibited a very low proportion of shared species (15-29%). The proportion of rare species, i.e. singletons, ranged from 40-51% of the total species richness depending on the plot considered. We used the abundance-based coverage estimator of species richness (ACE) and the Chao shared species estimator that provides a correction based on the relative abundance of rare species. These indices also showed both a high between plots dissimilarity and a substantial within plot variability of species composition. Because of the high proportion of rare species, the rarefaction curves failed to reach any asymptote in all replicated plots. Bootstrap resampling showed that less than 5 samples per stratum (class of soil thickness) provided inconsistent species richness values. We simulated the efficiency of sampling strategies that included our 4 replicate plots and the 3 classes of soil thickness but with varying sampling effort within each stratum. The results indicated that a fairly large (74%) proportion of species would be recorded if strata were sampled using 5 sampling units (hence 15 samples per plot for a total of 4×15=60 samples). This study showed the need for adequate plot replication in soil macrofaunal biodiversity studies. Also, the main relevant factors of within-replicate plot spatial heterogeneity (e.g. soil, vegetation) should be accounted for through stratified sampling. The results showed that there is no way of reducing the local sampling effort below a certain level (here, 5 sampling units per stratum).     

Jackknife resampling for precision measurement of direct gene flow estimates

Gene flow from outside pollen sources reduces the expected genetic gain of seed orchards, and has been quantified by genotyping seed samples from crop years to determine the proportion of seed sired by outside sources. Random bulk seed sampling and microsatellite genotyping allows for fast, unbiased identification of orchard contamination rates. Bulk seed sampling has been employed in multiple studies of seed orchard gene flow, but a method of determining precision of gene flow estimates from this sampling method has yet to be described. In this study, we used jackknife resampling to generate random samples of migrant and within-population genotypes obtained from an empirical sample of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii [Mirb.] Franco) genotypes of five microsatellite loci. We generated samples of 50, 100, 150, 200, and 250 genotyped individuals from a sample of 400 seeds, with genotypes corresponding to low (6%), moderate (14%), or high (56%) pollen contamination levels. The mean gene flow estimate and confidence interval were calculated for each sample size and gene flow scenario to determine the precision of gene flow estimates obtained from each sample size in each contaminant gene flow scenario. Genotyping 150 individuals was sufficient to produce gene flow estimates with calculated confidence interval values below ± 1%, indicating that 150 genotyped individuals were sufficient for precise gene flow estimation in this population. This resampling method will enable precise and unbiased estimation of gene flow into seed orchards for future monitoring of gene flow, to allow better management of seed orchard genetic resources.     

Soil organic carbon dynamics at the regional scale as influenced by land use history: a case study in forest soils from southern Belgium

Land use change (LUC) is known to have a large impact on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. However, at a regional scale, our ability to explain SOC dynamics is limited due to the variability generated by inconsistent initial conditions between sample points, poor spatial information on previous land use/land management history and scarce SOC inventories. This study combines the resampling in 2003–2006 of an extensive soil survey in 1950–1960 with exhaustive historical data on LUC (1868–2006) to explain observed changes in the SOC stocks of temperate forest soils in the Belgian Ardennes. Results from resampling showed a significant loss of SOC between the two surveys, associated with a decrease in variability. The mean carbon content decreased from 40.4 to 34.5 g C kg^?1 (10.6 to 9.6 kg C m^?2), with a mean rate of C change (ΔSOC) of ?0.15 g C kg^?1 year^?1 (?0.023 kg C m^?2 year^?1). Soils with high SOC content tended to loose carbon while conversely soils with low SOC tended to gain carbon. Land use change history explained a significant part of past and current SOC stocks as well as ΔSOC during the last 50 years. We show that the use of spatially explicit historical data can help to quantitatively explain changes in SOC content at the regional scale.     

样本不确定性对基于SPI干旱评估的影响

【目的】分析样本不确定性对干旱评估结果的影响,为防旱减灾工作中干旱的准确评估提供支持。【方法】分别采用参数Bootstrap与非参数Bootstrap抽样方法得到黄河上游（龙羊峡以上区域）1960-2013年共53年的系列标准化降水指数(SPI)值,并通过方差和置信区间宽度2种不确定性量化指标,研究样本不确定性对SPI干旱评估结果的影响。【结果】样本不确定性对SPI评估结果影响显著,其大小随SPI值发生规律性变化,当SPI接近0值时,样本不确定性对SPI评估结果的影响较小;当SPI值减小或增大时,样本不确定性的影响均逐步增大,SPI评估结果的可靠性变差;在降水样本容量相同的条件下,一般基于参数Bootstrap重采样方法的SPI表现为较小的方差和较窄的置信区间宽度。【结论】在应用SPI评估区域干旱状况时,应充分考虑样本不确定性对评估结果的影响;为了减少SPI值的不确定性,宜采用基于非参数Bootstrap的重抽样方法,特别是针对极端事件;若降水样本存在异常值,宜采用基于参数Bootstrap的抽样方法。     

温台渔场3种经济鱼类体长频次分布与采样量间关系的比较

鱼类种群的体长分布能够反映该种群的资源变动状况,但能够有效描述体长结构信息的采样量难以确定。通过使用重采样方法计算了基于实际采样量下体长频次分布和基于模拟采样量下体长频次分布之间的均方差异值,并以温台渔场几种经济鱼类为例,比较了不同鱼种间体长频次精度和采样量间的关系,研究表明：(1)鱼种间的生物学差异、季节变化等因素对体长频次精度与采样量间关系有一定影响;(2)迭代计算中体长组数量的改变会影响体长频次精度估计的准确性;(3)为避免采样努力量的浪费,体长频次精度的大小可作为采样量优化的理论依据。由于目前国内缺乏估计体长频次精度一类的研究,本文的研究结果可对相关资源调查的设计提供一定的科学理论基础。