气候变化对椰心叶甲在中国适生区的影响

为明确椰心叶甲在中国的潜在适生区,降低椰心叶甲入侵造成经济和生态损失,本研究以CLIMEX软件和椰心叶甲的生物学资料为依据,结合ArcGIS反距离加权插值分析功能,利用历史气候数据（1981—2010年）和模拟未来气候数据（2071—2100年）,分析气候变化对椰心叶甲在中国的潜在适生区的影响。结果表明：在历史气候条件下,椰心叶甲主要分布于中国的南部地区,高度适生区分布面积最大。在未来气候条件下,椰心叶甲在国内适生区总面积增加,适生区具有北移的趋势。本研究可为椰心叶甲的管理防控提供一定的理论依据。     

Parthenium hysterophorus in Nepal: a review of its weed status and possibilities for management

The rapid expansion of the alien invasive Parthenium hysterophorus is a new agricultural and environmental problem for Nepal. Although the weed was first recorded in 1967, the most significant expansion has occurred in the last 20 years. The weed is thought to have entered Nepal from India and currently is found in the Tarai, Siwalik and hill regions of Nepal. A CLIMEX modelling projection has shown these regions to be climatically suitable for the growth of P. hysterophorus, both under the present and a future projected increased temperature. From the initially invaded roadside vegetation, the weed has now spread into cropping land and forests. Vehicle movement and transportation of agriculture products are the main means by which its seed is spreading. The weed has reduced plant species richness and changed species composition in grasslands, while fodder collectors have developed contact dermatitis from the plant. To date, no sustainable management strategy has been developed for this weed. However, the fortuitous arrival of the biological control agents Zygogramma bicolorata and Puccinia abrupta var. partheniicola has had some impact upon the weed's growth and abundance. A CLIMEX modelling projection identifies many suitable locations for Z. bicolorata outside of its present range and within areas where the weed is likely to spread, both under the present and under a future projected climate of increased temperature. Mapping of the currently invaded areas, management through community involvement and further releases of new and redistribution of current biological control agents are required to manage P. hysterophorus in Nepal.     

香蕉枯萎病在中国的风险分析及适生区预测

通过建立香蕉枯萎病风险分析指标体系,分析香蕉枯萎病在中国的风险等级;利用CLIMEX软件预测香蕉枯萎病在中国的适生区。结果表明,香蕉枯萎病在我国的风险等级为高度危险,为我国外来生物的检疫对象;我国的很多省份都是其适生区,应采取有效措施防止香蕉枯萎病的传播。     

How widespread is Parthenium hysterophorus and its biological control agent Zygogramma bicolorata in South Asia?

Parthenium hysterophorus is a weed of global significance causing severe economic, environmental, human and animal health problems in Asia, Africa, Australia and the Pacific. In South Asia, P. hysterophorus occurs in India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal. A host-specific leaf-feeding beetle Zygogramma bicolorata from México was introduced into India in 1984, as a biological control agent for P. hysterophorus . In this study, a GIS-based distribution map of P. hysterophorus and its biological control agent Z. bicolorata in South Asia based on meta-analysis is presented. The map highlights the limited published information on P. hysterophorus incidence in many of the states and territories in India, as well as in neighbouring Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Pakistan. Incidence of Z. bicolorata was recorded as three distinct clusters, covering many states in India. In Pakistan, Z. bicolorata was recorded in the Punjab region bordering India. A CLIMEX model based on the current distribution of Z. bicolorata in India suggests that the geographic range of this agent in India and Pakistan can extend to other P. hysterophorus -infested areas in the region. The CLIMEX model also suggests that all of Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, and parts of Nepal are climatically suitable for Z. bicolorata.     

CLIMEX-GIS预测大豆北方茎溃疡病菌在中国的潜在分布

大豆北方茎溃疡病菌是大豆的重要病原菌,广泛分布于世界主要大豆产区,造成严重的产量和品质损失。本文应用生物模型CLIMEX结合GIS软件预测大豆北方茎溃疡病菌在中国的适生区,并根据EI值划分相应的适生等级。结果表明,大豆北方茎溃疡病菌在我国绝大部分地区适合生长,其中东北地区、华北地区和云贵高原地区处于中适生区或高适生区。该菌在我国还未报道,通过分析其在我国潜在分布区对于防止病菌的传入、传播和蔓延有重要的检疫意义。     

危险性有害生物苹淡褐卷蛾在我国的适生区预测

苹淡褐卷蛾是一种危害严重的有害生物,利用 CLIMEX3.0软件对苹淡褐卷蛾在我国的适生区进行预测,结果发现该虫在我国的气候适生区域比较广泛,除新疆、吉林和黑龙江外,其他省份均有适生地区,适生面积约为369万 km2,占我国国土面积的38%。针对有害生物的传入和定殖能力,提出了相应的管理措施以防止传入我国。     

基于CLIMEX模型的玉蜀黍霜指霉菌入侵风险分析

为明确我国禁止进境的植物检疫性有害生物——玉蜀黍霜指霉菌Peronosclerospora maydis在中国的适生性以及入侵风险,采用CLIMEX 2.0软件分析其适生性,用ArcGIS 10.2软件确定其适生范围和适生程度,并采用多指标综合评判法量化分析其入侵我国的风险等级。结果表明,玉蜀黍霜指霉菌在我国的适生范围主要分布在长江以南的西南山地丘陵玉米种植区和南方丘陵玉米种植区,高适生区主要分布在云南、贵州、四川、重庆、广东、广西、湖南、江西、福建、海南和台湾等省 （区、市）。玉蜀黍霜指霉菌作为专性寄生菌,可在玉米整个生长季侵染危害,经多指标综合评判法分析并计算得到其风险综合评价值R为2.12,表明该病菌入侵我国的风险等级属高度危险,一旦入侵,势必对粮食安全、农业安全和生态安全带来巨大威胁,建议加强检疫监测,严防该病菌入侵。     

新菠萝灰粉蚧在中国目前及未来的潜在地理分布研究

新菠萝灰粉蚧(Dysmicoccus neobrevipes(Beardsley)),属同翅目(Homoptera)粉蚧科(Pseudococci-dae),被列为我国进境植物检疫性有害生物。该虫主要分布在美洲地区,特别是墨西哥到巴西之间,另外欧洲、非洲和亚洲也有少量分布。新菠萝灰粉蚧于1998年在我国首次发现,随后在广东省的部分地区大量暴发,造成严重经济损失。本研究利用CLIMEX 3.0与ArcGIS 9.3结合的方法研究该虫在我国目前以及未来的潜在地理分布。研究结果发现当前气候条件下,新菠萝灰粉蚧在我国的适生范围主要分布在18.3°N～27.3°N,包括海南、广东、广西、云南、贵州、台湾、香港、澳门、福建、湖南、江西、四川、重庆、浙江、西藏等省市,适生区面积占全国总面积的13.03%。其中整个海南、广东和广西的大部分地区、云南南部、福建东南部和台湾西南部高度适生。基于我国未来气候变化的预测结果显示,2020年,适生区向北扩展,面积将增加至全国总面积的18.97%;到2050年,适生区北界将向北移至32.8°N,上海、江苏和安徽南部均将成为适生区。鉴于新菠萝灰粉蚧在我国的潜在地理分布研究结果,应进一步加强针对该虫的检疫、根除措施,完善疫情监测体系,预防其新的进入和扩散。     

基于CLIMEX和GIS的黑脂大小蠹在中国的适生区域预测

 黑脂大小蠹是美国东南部地区危害松危杉类针叶树种的害虫。为了解黑脂大小蠹在我国潜在危害范围和程度,研究采用CLIMEX模型与ArcGIS分析相结合的预测方法,通过选择黑脂大小蠹适生且危害严重的3个基准点与中国气候点的数据进行比较,分析了基准点与我国的701个气候点气候数据的相似程度,确定黑脂大小蠹在我国的潜在适生范围。结果表明黑脂大小蠹在我国可能适宜其定殖的地区范围较广,其中,贵州、四川东部、重庆、湖北、湖南北部、安徽、江苏、上海、浙江等华中地区是黑脂大小蠹的潜在最适生区。