气候变化对椰心叶甲在中国适生区的影响

为明确椰心叶甲在中国的潜在适生区,降低椰心叶甲入侵造成经济和生态损失,本研究以CLIMEX软件和椰心叶甲的生物学资料为依据,结合ArcGIS反距离加权插值分析功能,利用历史气候数据（1981—2010年）和模拟未来气候数据（2071—2100年）,分析气候变化对椰心叶甲在中国的潜在适生区的影响。结果表明：在历史气候条件下,椰心叶甲主要分布于中国的南部地区,高度适生区分布面积最大。在未来气候条件下,椰心叶甲在国内适生区总面积增加,适生区具有北移的趋势。本研究可为椰心叶甲的管理防控提供一定的理论依据。

Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution of Brontispa longissima in China

The study aims to clarify the potential distribution of Brontispa longissima in China to reduce the economic and ecological losses caused by the invasion of the pest. Based on CLIMEX software and the biological data of B. longissima, this study combined with inverse distance-weighted interpolation analysis function of ArcGIS, used historical climate data (1981-2010) and simulated future climate data (2071-2100) to analyze the impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of B. longissima. The results showed that Brontispa longissima was mainly distributed in the southern part of China, and the very favorable region occupied the largest proportion under historical climate conditions. Besides, the total suitable area of B. longissima in China would increase and the suitable area would move northward under future climate conditions. This study could provide a theoretical basis for the management and control of B. longissima.