Simulation of future dissolved oxygen distribution in pond culture based on sliding window-temporal convolutional network and trend surface analysis

Dissolved oxygen (DO) is a key ecological factor to measure the quality of water in the aquaculture. As the pond water body is affected by the breeding environment, the spatial distribution of DO shows a certain law in the entire pond. Therefore, to simulate the distribution of DO in aquaculture waters and grasp the temporal and spatial variation of DO is the key to achieving precise regulation of DO. For this purpose, this paper proposed a method for simulating the temporal and spatial distribution of DO in pond culture based on a sliding window-temporal convolutional network together with trend surface analysis (SW-TCN-TSA). This paper first utilized SW to construct DO data sets with different prediction durations, and then used the improved TCN model to realize one-dimensional time series prediction for DO at single monitoring point. Based on the prediction results of DO, a TSA method was performed on the predicted values of DO at the extreme moments of all discrete monitoring points, so as to realize the simulation of the temporal and spatial distribution of DO in the pond. Experimental results show that the SW-TCN model has better prediction performance for one-dimensional time series prediction of DO. Compared with traditional deep networks, such as CNN, GRU, LSTM, CNN-GRU and CNN-LSTM, the values of evaluation indicators (MSE, MAE and RMSE) have been greatly improved. In the process of trend surface fitting, all fitting R² of DO at different water depths are higher than 0.9, indicating that the TSA can accurately reflect the temporal and spatial distribution of DO. This method can provide a basis for the prediction and early warning of DO in the three-dimensional space of the pond and has high practicability in aquaculture.     

荞麦品种改良与产业发展现状及趋势分析

根据国内外荞麦生产现状及存在的问题,对未来荞麦产业发展、品种改良方向及品种选育技术进行了讨论。近年来,世界范围内荞麦种植面积稳中有升,荞麦消费量呈增加趋势,但荞麦生产中普遍存在生产条件差、产量低、品种改良难和不适宜机械化生产等问题,因此广适、高效、优质和高产等特性是荞麦品种改良的目标,传统杂交技术与分子育种技术的结合是未来荞麦品种改良的主要手段。     

金融时间序列指标判别框架：以特质波动率为例

基于拐点集合判别的TBUD方法主要思路是分析拐点集合间的关系，并在高维空间进行划分，从而搭建判别模型，并将分析框架应用在特质波动率等若干指标上，利用实证数据得到结论。应用TBUD判别框架可以发现，特质波动率等指标无法对拐点集合进行清晰划分，因而并不具有预测能力。     

园林种植容器的发展及应用现状

综述了国内外园林种植容器的发展史及应用现状,并总结出园林种植容器的设计要素及应用原则,最后对种植容器的发展进行展望。     

自吸泵研究现状及发展趋势

自吸泵广泛用于喷灌、消防等场合。全面总结和分析了自吸泵的发展史，归纳了自吸泵自吸时间和最大自吸高度的计算模型，总结了自吸性能影响因素研究现状，介绍了回流孔大小、位置的计算公式，以及隔舌间隙及泵内储水容积和气液分离室容积的控制；阐明了轴封的气密性、吸入管路的气密性、浸入液面下的管路深度和入口管路的容积这些外部因素对自吸性能的影响机理；指出了自吸泵进一步发展的趋势和方向，为后续研究工作提供了指导性建议。     

冀、京、津产麦区小麦赤霉病菌原体形成期的气象要素演变特征与分析

根据河北省、北京市、天津市22个代表站1960—2000年逐日平均气温、降雨量、相对湿度以及日照时数等资料，运用统计学方法，分析了京、津、冀地区小麦赤霉病菌原体形成期各相关气象因子的年际、年代际变化及空间分布。结果表明，日平均气温≥12℃日数大部地区呈弱增加趋势，降雨量和雨日呈减少趋势，中部以南地区的日照条件向降低小麦抗病能力的方向转化；贴近度分析表明，塘沽一天津一保定以南地区秋季小麦赤霉病菌原体形成期的气候条件是最适宜或适宜小麦赤霉病发生。     

户营小型拖拉机难以更新的机理探讨

在分析农户使用、更新小型拖拉机经济行为的基础上，推证并建立了户营小型拖拉机的作业成本随使用年限增加而变化的规律，进一步提出户营小型拖拉机在作业量充足条件下的“成本均等理论”和在作业量欠充足条件下的“成本递减理论”，并通过实地采样加以验证。据此阐述了户营小型拖拉机难以更新的机理，得出在经济欠发达地区户营小型拖拉机基本上不存在最佳更新期的结论。     

基于农业气象模型的农作物单产预测系统

基于农作物单产可以分解为趋势产量和气象产量的原理。采用面向对象的开发方法，在Windows 32位操作系统环境下，用VB与MO作为开发工具，成功开发了Client／Server结构的农作物单产预测系统。系统将数据库技术、组件化GIS技术集成在一起，各模块之间实现了无缝连接。系统运行表现出良好的性能。     

千岛湖水质变化特征与趋势分析

对千岛湖水质综合污染指数分析表明,近10年来千岛湖多数监测项目和各断面污染指数都呈现显著下降的趋势,全湖综合水质趋好,表明千岛湖总体水质的变化正处于相对低的风险状态之中。各断面水污染综合指数的对比分析显示,代表千岛湖主要来水水质的街口、航头岛和百亩畈3个断面分列前三,河流污染物的输入是千岛湖水质下降的主要风险来源,其中街口指标显著高于其他断面,是污染输入强度最大的来源。各监测项目污染指数的对比分析表明总N是影响近期千岛湖水质的首要因子。趋势分析表明,除街口和西园码头外其他各断面负荷比均呈现出不同程度的下降趋势。各监测项目综合污染指数分担率的分析表明,总N、溶解氧和高锰酸钾指数排在前列,3项分担率之和占全湖的71%,其中总N接近49%,显著高于其他项目。趋势分析中总N分担率出现显著下降趋势,其他项目也都表现出不同程度下降趋势,大肠杆菌的变化趋势尚不明确。     

Declining plant species richness of grassland ditch banks—a problem of colonisation or extinction?

Small-scale landscape elements, such as ditch banks are an important remaining source of biodiversity in many agricultural landscapes, including the Western Peat District in the Netherlands. Unfortunately, plant species richness is declining even in these habitats. To understand the factors threatening biodiversity, we studied demographic traits (occupancy, trend, colonisation and extinction) for a large number of plant species, in a 25-year long data set. We developed a method to investigate the relative importance of colonisation and extinction for species increase and decrease in multi-species assemblages. We show that colonisation has been more important for determining species trends than extinction. Decreasing species were small and characterised by low nutrient tolerance and high light requirements, indicating that competitive ability influences species trends. The mechanism by which high nutrient levels reduce plant diversity appears to be closely related to colonisation (germination and seedling establishment). Local management should therefore continue to focus on nutrient reduction and the creation of regeneration sites. Yet, these measures will be insufficient for restoring species richness since isolation also hampers species increase. Therefore, to maximise the effects of local management, additional regional management solutions are required to improve seed dispersal for example, from nature reserves.