危险性林木新病原康沃尔疫霉对我国的风险分析

从传入和定殖可能性两方面分析了康沃尔疫霉(Phytophthora kernoviae)的风险性,并利用MAXENT生态位模型预测了其在我国的潜在适生区。结果表明:康沃尔疫霉(P.kernoviae)传入我国及其在我国南方沿海地区定殖具有高风险性,主要包括海南、广西、广东、福建、云南、台湾等省区,尤其花卉进出口基地云南省;上述地区应加强康沃尔疫霉(P.kernoviae)的检疫工作,实行严格的风险管理。     

优化后最大熵模型在模拟驼鹿适宜栖息地分布中的应用

以大兴安岭根河地区驼鹿分布数据为例,综合考虑样本选择偏差、独立训练集与验证集划分、模型复杂度,模拟了冬季驼鹿适宜栖息地分布。结果表明:最大熵模型默认设置下模型存在严重的过拟合,通过小样本赤池信息准则(AICc)选择的最优特征类型与正则化乘数组合,训练集受试者操作曲线下面积(AUC)虽有下降,但测试集AUC显著提高,模型过拟合情况得到显著改善;使用AICc最小模型拟合驼鹿分布发现,冬季驼鹿主要分布在远离人为干扰(城镇)、坡度低、靠近河流、林间道路、沼泽灌丛的地方;根河林业局驼鹿冬季适宜栖息地面积为1371hm2,真实统计技能(TSS)值为0.54。最大熵模型的应用,应根据不同的物种出现数据特点及研究目的,选择合适的参数设置。     

New data on the status and distribution of the bush dog (Speothos venaticus): Evaluating its quality of protection and directing research efforts

The bush dog (Speothos venaticus), listed as CITES Appendix 1 - vulnerable, is a small (5-6 kg), rarely seen canid from Central and South America. The World Conservation Union Canid Specialist Group (IUCN CSG) recommended that research with this species focus on their basic ecology so that a data-driven conservation strategy can be formulated. Information on the bush dog, however, has been lacking since standard field techniques have had little or no success with this species. The S. venaticus Status and Distribution Survey was developed in an attempt to use indirect methodologies to determine the bush dog’s conservation status in the wild, its current distribution, and identify ecological needs by correlating habitat types to bush dog sightings. Survey responses and literature generated a database with 399 historic bush dog locations recorded between 1834 and 2004. These locational records were used to update the species’ range extent map, an important conservation planning tool. With year and precision of data accounted for, we analyzed land use coverage at known locations where bush dogs have historically been reported to evaluate the likelihood that the species persists in the area today. In addition, these locations provided training data for generation of potential distribution maps (i.e., areas of occupancy) using ecological niche modeling (i.e., Maximum Entropy) and bioclimatic data. These analyses revealed that 20% of the historic bush dog locations are associated with fragmented or altered habitat. These results allowed the status of bush dog habitat to be re-evaluated and areas that require more intensive research and protection to be identified.     

香蕉细菌性枯萎病菌在中国的潜在适生区域

青枯菌2号小种引起的香蕉细菌性枯萎病(moko disease)是香蕉生产上最具毁灭性的病害之一.为指导香蕉细菌性枯萎病的预防控制和制定相关的检疫政策,该研究根据EPPO公布的香蕉细菌性枯萎病在全球范围内的分布资料,分别采用GARP和MAXENT两种预测模型对其在中国的潜在适生区域进行分析预测.结果显示,GARP和MAXENT的预测结果基本一致,均表明香蕉细菌性枯萎病菌在中国的潜在适生区域集中分布于东南部的云南、广西、广东、海南、福建、台湾、江西、湖南、贵州、四川、重庆、浙江、湖北等13个省(市、自治区),其中高风险适生区域包括广东、广西、台湾、海南、福建和云南省.     

基于MAXENT的维氏粒线虫(Anguina wevelli)在我国的潜在分布研究

维氏粒线虫(Anguina wevelli)是危害牧草及草坪草的一类重要植物病原线虫。本文利用MAXENT生态位模型预测了维氏粒线虫在我国的适生区域,并结合该虫在我国的寄主及我国的地理信息,得出了该线虫在我国的潜在分布区域,结果显示,该线虫在我国云南保山南部及临沧东北部地区高度适生,云南除迪庆、怒江、丽江、昭通、西双版纳、文山、红河外的大部分中度适生。预测结果运用ROC曲线(受试者工作特征曲线)验证,测试数据的AUC(areas under curve,曲线下面积)值为0.971,达到了较好的精度。做好进境草籽的检验检疫对于保护上述地区的畜牧业发展有重要意义。     

The Potential Geographic Distribution of Radopholus similis in China

The burrowing nematode (Radopholus similis) is one of the main quarantine pests in China, and the risk of invasion posed by this nematode is becoming more and more serious with regard to the international trade being intensified day by day. It is urgent to analyse the potential geographic distribution of R. similis in China. Genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction modeling system (GARP) and maximum entropy (MAXENT), the two niche models which have been widely used to predict the potential geographic distribution of alien species, were used to predict the distribution of R. similis in China. We also presented a model comparison of the results by both threshold-dependent and threshold-independent evaluations. It has been shown that the two niche models could be used to predict the potential distribution of R. similis reliably. The potential distribution of R. similis should be constricted within the south of China, such as Hainan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, Yunnan provinces, and Taiwan of China. The MAXENT gives a better prediction than that of GARP. R. similis can be introduced to China by flowers and nursery stock's international shipping. The predicted results indicate that R. similis can occur in south coastal area of China and Yunnan Province, which are the main flower and nursery stock's import-export areas in China. Consequently, a strong quarantine program is needed at the ports of such areas to prevent the pest from being introduced to China.     

利用MAXENT预测橡胶树棒孢霉落叶病在中国的适生区

［目的］ 对引起橡胶树棒孢霉落叶病的橡胶树棒孢霉落叶病菌在我国的适生区进行分析,为相关部门制定相应的防控对策,及进一步进行风险评估和监测区域的确定提供依据。［方法］ 利用MAXENT与ArcGIS,结合橡胶树在中国的分布预测该病在中国的适生区。［结果］ 预测结果显示,该病在我国的橡胶园几乎均可适生且适生程度较高,适生区内监测及预警对橡胶产业持续健康发展具有重要意义。预测结果的AUC值为0.978,预测效果较好。［结论］ 研究结果可为该病害防控策略的制定提供科学依据。     

Applying species distribution modelling to identify areas of high conservation value for endangered species: A case study using Margaritifera margaritifera (L.)

The development and implementation of a population supplementation and restoration plan for any endangered species should involve an understanding of the species’ habitat requirements prior to the release of any captive bred individuals. The freshwater pearl mussel, Margaritifera margaritifera, has undergone dramatic declines over the last century and is now globally endangered. In Northern Ireland, the release of captive bred individuals is being used to support wild populations and repatriate the species in areas where it once existed. We employed a combination of maximum entropy modelling (MAXENT) and Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM) to identify ecological parameters necessary to support wild populations using GIS-based landscape scale and ground-truthed habitat scale environmental parameters. The GIS-based landscape scale model suggested that mussel occurrence was associated with altitude and soil characteristics including the carbon, clay, sand, and silt content. Notably, mussels were associated with a relatively narrow band of variance indicating that M. margaritifera has a highly specific landscape niche. The ground-truthed habitat scale model suggested that mussel occurrence was associated with stable consolidated substrates, the extent of bankside trees, presence of indicative macrophyte species and fast flowing water. We propose a three phase conservation strategy for M. margaritifera identifying suitable areas within rivers that (i) have a high conservation value yet needing habitat restoration at a local level, (ii) sites for population supplementation of existing populations and (iii) sites for species reintroduction to rivers where the mussel historically occurred but is now locally extinct. A combined analytical approach including GIS-based landscape scale and ground-truthed habitat scale models provides a robust method by which suitable release sites can be identified for the population supplementation and restoration of an endangered species. Our results will be highly influential in the future management of M. margaritifera in Northern Ireland.     

潜在外来入侵甜菜孢囊线虫在中国的适生性风险分析

本文应用MAXENT与GARP两种生态位模型对甜菜孢囊线虫在中国的适生性进行了风险分析和预测。结果表明甜菜孢囊线虫可在中国17个省市生存,适生范围为26°N～48°N,77.6°E～136°E。甜菜孢囊线虫入侵的高风险区:内蒙古南部、新疆西部、河北中南部、山西东北部、宁夏、甘肃北部;中风险区:北京、天津、陕西、山西大部、内蒙古西部和东南部、吉林西部、新疆北部;低风险区:河南、陕西南部、山东、内蒙古中东部、新疆中部、辽宁、吉林大部、黑龙江南部、江苏、安徽、湖北、湖南、江西、浙江北部;而青海、新疆南部、西藏、四川、重庆、云南、贵州、广西、广东、福建、海南、内蒙古少数地区和黑龙江部分地区属于基本不发生区。我国内蒙古、新疆、辽宁等省市甜菜种植区均适合甜菜孢囊线虫发生,对上述地区的进出口岸应加强甜菜孢囊线虫的检疫工作。     

基于MAXENT的大豆南北方茎溃疡病菌在中国适生区的预测

利用MAXENT生态位模型和GIS系统,对大豆南北方茎溃疡病菌在我国的适生区进行预测.模型分析结果表明,这两种病菌在我国的潜在适生区域广泛.大豆北方茎溃疡病菌除了我国的宁夏、海南省外,其它省市均有该菌的适生分布区,其中适生等级高的地区主要在江苏、安徽、浙江、上海、江西和湖北6省.大豆南方茎溃疡病菌除了宁夏、青海、西藏外,我国的其它地区均为该菌的潜在适生区域,其中适生等级高的地区主要集中在江西、上海、江苏、安徽、浙江、河南以及陕西南部、四川东部和重庆的部分地区.