Assessing the potential impacts of alternative landscape designs on amphibian population dynamics

An individual-based, spatially explicit population model was used to predict the consequences of future land-use alternatives for populations of four amphibian species in two central Iowa (midwest USA) agricultural watersheds. The model included both breeding and upland habitat and incorporated effects of climatic variation and demographic stochasticity. Data requirements of the model include life history characteristics, dispersal behavior, habitat affinities, as well as land use and landcover in geographic information systems databases. Future scenarios were ranked according to change in breeder abundance, saturation, and distribution, compared to baseline conditions. Sensitivity of simulation results to changes in model parameters was also examined. Simulated results suggest that while all four species modeled are likely to persist under present and future scenario conditions, two may be more at risk from future landscape change. Although the study species are all widespread generalists regarded as having a low conservation priority, they depend on wetlands and ponds, increasingly endangered habitats in agricultural landscapes. Broader conservation strategies in the region would ensure that these currently common organisms do not become the endangered species of the future.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

西兰花选择性采收作业平台识别切割装置设计与试验

针对当前人工采收西兰花存在季节性劳动力需求强、劳动强度大以及成本高等问题，该研究基于西兰花的农艺特性与形态特征设计了一种西兰花选择性采收作业平台，旨在能够实现对西兰花的自主识别切割作业。首先，该平台采用“识别-采收”一体化作业模式，通过对采收作业平台的关键部件进行设计与选型，建立了西兰花的视觉识别系统和定心切割机构。其次，根据西兰花茎秆与割刀之间的相互作用关系，采用对数螺线作为切割曲线设计了一种等滑切角割刀，确定了割刀滑切角40o、切割半径135 mm、割刀长度260 mm等关键切割参数。根据西兰花茎秆的材料属性参数，基于ANSYS Workbench/LS-DYNA软件对茎秆切割过程进行显式动力学仿真分析，以割刀刃角和转速为控制因子，以最大切割力为试验指标，利用正交试验优化设计，确定了茎秆切割过程的最优参数组合为割刀刃角20°、转速1 rad/s，在此参数下最大切割力为725.82 N，切割质量较优。最后，对采收作业平台进行性能试验，结果表明视觉系统能够有效识别自然环境下的成熟西兰花植株，检测效果良好；定心切割机构可快速平稳的切入并切断西兰花茎秆，切断表面平整光滑；采收作业平台整体漏收率在10%以下、检测准确率为90%、切茎合格率为88.9%，可满足西兰花选择性采收的作业需求。本研究可为西兰花选择性采收作业装备的设计开发提供理论参考和实际借鉴。     

往复式割刀切割马铃薯秧数值模拟分析

针对马铃薯收秧机械在国内发展空白和往复式切割器切割马铃薯秧蔓研究较少的问题,对往复式切割器进行三维建模、显式动力学分析,并仿真得到往复式切割器在切割马铃薯秧过程中的变形结果、应力和剪切力变化折线图。结果表明:马铃薯秧的最大变形为148.98mm,最大应力为2.7706MPa,最大剪切力为1.5368 MPa,且往复式切割刀的各项指标均在合理范围之内,能够充分实现马铃薯秧苗的切割。该研究内容可为往复式切割器在马铃薯秧蔓切割问题上的探讨提供参考。     

Spatially explicit fisheries simulation models for policy evaluation

This paper deals with the design of modelling tools suitable for investigating the consequences of alternative policies on the dynamics of resources and fisheries, such as the evaluation of marine protected areas (MPA). We first review the numerous models that have been developed for this purpose, and compare them from several standpoints: population modelling, exploitation modelling and management measure modelling. We then present a generic fisheries simulation model, Integration of Spatial Information for FISHeries simulation (ISIS‐Fish). This spatially explicit model allows quantitative policy screening for fisheries with mixed‐species harvests. It may be used to investigate the effects of combined management scenarios including a variety of policies: total allowable catch (TAC), licenses, gear restrictions, MPA, etc. Fisher's response to management may be accounted for by means of decision rules conditioned on population and exploitation parameters. An application to a simple example illustrates the relevance of this kind of tool for policy screening, particularly in the case of mixed fisheries. Finally, the reviewed models and ISIS‐Fish are discussed and confronted in the light of the underlying assumptions and model objectives. In the light of this discussion, we identify desirable features for fisheries simulation models aimed at policy evaluation, and particularly MPA evaluation.     

Using behavioral landscape ecology to predict species’ responses to land-use and climate change

Climate change and habitat destruction are widely recognized as major threats to species’ survival. As a result of these anthropogenic impacts, species are often forced into novel landscapes where their persistence is difficult to predict. Knowledge of how individuals move or disperse through the landscape, choose habitat in which to settle, and produce offspring which survive to repeat the process can greatly improve our ability to predict species’ persistence. The field of behavioral landscape ecology uses a strong theoretical base to explore, often experimentally, how the behavior of a particular species is affected by heterogeneous and rapidly changing landscapes and can offer valuable insight for managing species in the face of human-induced environmental changes. When interpreted by modelers, results of landscape-level behavioral experiments can be quantified for use in predictive models. To this end, we summarize the methods and results of research using direct experimental manipulation techniques broken into the following categories: translocations, playback experiments, food resource manipulations, manipulations of reproductive success, direct manipulations of the landscape, and manipulations of predation risk. We review and place in a theoretical framework the results from this emerging body of research regarding how organisms move in and respond to different types of landscapes, both natural and human-altered. We go onto highlight the potential of each experimental method to quantify different processes, which may be useful when interpreted by modelers attempting to parameterize predictive models. Finally, we suggest future directions for experimental research that will allow for greater integration of behavioral landscape ecology and predictive modeling.     

典型断面渠道临界水深计算

系统总结了明渠特征水深研究领域的计算方法,评价了各方法的特点;为了优选出典型断面渠道临界水深简捷、通用、精度高、适用范围广的显式计算公式,通过定义包含典型断面几何要素及流量的量纲为一的参数,将目前成果中临界水深的显式计算公式用定义量纲为一的参数进行统一表达,并对其进行简捷性、精度及适用范围的综合评价比较,优选出梯形、圆形、弧底梯形、普通城门洞形、马蹄形等5种典型断面渠道临界水深的显式计算公式;对标准城门洞形断面的临界水深应用最优一致逼近原理,提出以幂函数形式分段表达的新显式计算公式．误差分析表明,在工程常用范围内,由推荐的显式公式所计算的6种典型断面的临界水深,其最大相对误差均小于1％,满足工程设计对精度的要求．该研究可为典型断面排灌渠道的设计及水力计算提供参考．     

Density and carrying capacity in the forgotten tigerland: Tigers in the understudied Nepalese Churia

While there are numerous wildlife ecology studies in lowland areas of Nepal, there are no in‐depth studies of the hilly Churia habitat even though it comprises 7642 km² of potential wildlife habitat across the Terai Arc. We investigated tiger, leopard and prey densities across this understudied habitat. Our camera trapping survey covered 536 km² of Churia and surrounding areas within Chitwan National Park (CNP). We used 161 trapping locations and accumulated 2097 trap‐nights in a 60‐day survey period during the winter season of 2010–2011. In addition, we walked 136 km over 81 different line transects using distance sampling to estimate prey density. We photographed 31 individual tigers, 28 individual leopards and 25 other mammalian species. Spatial capture–recapture methods resulted in lower density estimates for tigers, ranging from 2.3 to 2.9 tigers per 100 km², than for leopards, which ranged from 3.3 to 5.1 leopards per 100 km². In addition, leopard densities were higher in the core of the Churia compared to surrounding areas. We estimated 62.7 prey animals per 100 km² with forest ungulate prey (sambar, chital, barking deer and wild pig), accounting for 47% of the total. Based on prey availability, Churia habitat within CNP could potentially support 5.86 tigers per 100 km² but our density estimates were lower, perhaps indicating that the tiger population is below carrying capacity. Our results demonstrate that Churia habitat should not be ignored in conservation initiatives, but rather management efforts should focus on reducing human disturbance to support higher predator numbers.     

Long-term adaptation potential of Central European mountain forests to climate change: a GIS-assisted sensitivity assessment

An ecological risk assessment is described for determining the adaptation potential of the approximately 11 000 Swiss Forest Inventory points (FIP) to a hypothetically changing climate. The core of the study is a spatially explicit forest community model that generates estimates of the potential natural vegetation for the entire potential forest area of Switzerland under today's as well as under altered climate regimes. The model is based on the Bayes formula. The probabilities of the communities occurring along ecological gradients are derived from empirical data featuring the relationships between quasi-natural vegetation types and measured site variables. Bioclimatological input variables are the quotient between July temperature and annual precipitation (model version A) or mean annual temperature (model version B). Other site variables include aspect, acidity of top soil and, to account for continentality, geographical region. Climate change scenarios are defined as follows: ‘Moderate climate change’ implies an increase of the mean annual temperature of 4°C to 1.4°C depending on the region (model version B) or an increase of the July temperature of 1.5°C (model version A). ‘Strong climate change’ implies an increase of the mean annual temperature of 2°C to 2.8°C (model version B) or an increase of the July temperature of 3.0°C (model version A).

The simulation experiment showed that the geographical distribution of 15 potential natural forest types (distinguished on the basis of floristic affinities) varies considerably with changing temperature. Under moderate warming 30–55% of the FIP change their potential natural vegetation type, whereas under strong climate change the values increase to 55–89% depending on the model version used. In the ecological risk assessment the existing tree species composition on any FIP was compared with the expected tree species composition under today's as well as under altered climate regimes. A major finding indicated that, under the current climate conditions, approximately 25–30% (depending on the model version used) of all FIP must be considered as poorly adapted, i.e. less than 20% of the actual basal area consists of tree species that are expected as dominating taxa. This definition applies for trees with a diameter at breast height (DBH) ≥ 12 cm. Moderate warming increases the percentage of poorly adapted FIP by 5–10% (relative to all FIP considered), strong warming leads to a 10–30% increase of poorly adapted FIP (relative to all FIP considered). If trees with a DBH < 12cm are considered, the percentage of FIP that have to be classified as poorly adapted is reduced significantly. There are strong regional differences as exhibited in risk maps of 10 km × 10 km resolution.     

Effects of administrative land-use and technical land-form constraints on timber production at the landscape level

Abstract

This study quantified, across a landscape in Eastern Finland, the influence of administrative land-use and technical land-form constraints on timber production. Spatially explicit data about the nature conservation areas, land use plans and steep slopes were integrated with Multi-source National Forest Inventory (MS-NFI) data. The Finnish forestry model MELA was used in the calculations related to updating forest data and estimating different scenarios of timber production with and without constraints. In the study area, the annual volume of maximum sustainable cutting removal defined for the next 30 years was decreased by one-third due to restrictions. The presented approach could be used, for example, to assess timber availability at the landscape level. Future challenges include ensuring the compatibility of spatially explicit data obtained from different sources, identifying the feasibility of forest management operations in the restricted area, and incorporating near-nature forest management operations in the forest planning system in order to estimate the timber production.