Mapping the current and future distributions of Onosma species endemic to Iran

Climate change may cause shifts in the natural range of species especially for those that are geographically restricted and/or endemic species. In this study, the spatial distribution of five endemic and threatened species belonging to the genus Onosma (including O. asperrima, O. bisotunensis, O. kotschyi, O. platyphylla, and O. straussii) was investigated under present and future climate change scenarios: RCP2.6 (RCP, representative concentration pathway; optimistic scenario) and RCP8.5 (pessimistic scenario) for the years 2050 and 2080 in Iran. Analysis was conducted using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to provide a basis for the protection and conservation of these species. Seven environmental variables including aspect, depth of soil, silt content, slope, annual precipitation, minimum temperature of the coldest month, and annual temperature range were used as main predictors in this study. The model output for the potential habitat suitability of the studied species showed acceptable performance for all species (i.e., the area under the curve (AUC)>0.800). According to the models generated by MaxEnt, the potential current patterns of the species were consistent with the observed areas of distributions. The projected climate maps under optimistic and pessimistic scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively) of 2050 and 2080 resulted in reductions and expansions as well as positive range changes for all species in comparison to their current predicted distributions. Among all species, O. bisotunensis showed the most significant and highest increase under the pessimistic scenario of 2050 and 2080. Finally, the results of this study revealed that the studied plant species have shown an acute adaptability to environmental changes. The results can provide useful information to managers to apply appropriate strategies for the management and conservation of these valuable Iranian medicinal and threatened plant species in the future.     

Predicting the potential geographic distribution of Bactrocera bryoniae and Bactrocera neohumeralis(Diptera: Tephritidae) in China using MaxEnt ecological niche modeling

Bactrocera bryoniae and Bactrocera neohumeralis are highly destructive and major biosecurity/quarantine pests of fruit and vegetable in the tropical and subtropical regions in the South Pacific and Australia. Although these pests have not established in China, precautions must be taken due to their highly destructive nature. Thus, we predicted the potential geographic distribution of B. bryoniae and B. neohumeralis across the world and in particular China by ecological niche modeling of the Maximum Entropy(Max Ent) model with the occurrence records of these two species. Bactrocera bryoniae and B. neohumeralis exhibit similar potential geographic distribution ranges across the world and in China, and each species was predicted to be able to distribute to over 20% of the globe. Globally, the potential geographic distribution ranges for these two fruit fly species included southern Asia, the central and the southeast coast of Africa, southern North America, northern and central South America, and Australia. While within China, most of the southern Yangtze River area was found suitable for these species. Notably, southern China was considered to have the highest risk of B. bryoniae and B. neohumeralis invasions. Our study identifies the regions at high risk for potential establishment of B. bryoniae and B. neohumeralis in the world and in particular China, and informs the development of inspection and biosecurity/quarantine measures to prevent and control their invasions.     

基于季节特征的土壤退墒模型建立与率定

利用河南省南阳市2011—2015年12个墒情站的土壤水分监测资料,分析研究了无增墒情况下土壤含水量消退规律,构建出基于不同季节(夏季、春秋季与冬季)的土壤含水量与衰减系数的数学模型,运用规划求解法率定模型参数,并利用2016—2017年资料对模型进行检验。结果表明,不同季节土壤水分衰竭系数模型分别为α=1.023(1-ω~2/4353)~(1/2)(夏季)、α=1.013(1-ω~2/7005)~(1/2)(春秋季)与α=1.008(1-ω~2/9303)~(1/2)(冬季),所建立的数学模型适用于南阳市相应季节壤土与粘壤土小麦、水稻与休闲地土壤旱情预测,但不适用于夏季与春秋季砂土特别是休闲地砂土土壤墒情预测。     

基于模糊建模的混炼胶粘度测量

提出了一种在线测量混炼胶粘度的新方法．该方法以模糊建模技术为基础，综合考虑混炼过程各因素对胶料粘度的影响，建立起胶料粘度的在线测量模型．在模糊建模中，采用T-S模型描述胶料粘度变化的非线性过程，提出了一种基于相似性判别的模糊聚类算法以自动确定合适的聚类组数目，并用实数编码的遗传算法优化全局参数，从而获得了规则简化的、具有较高精度的模糊模型．根据此方法，设计了测量装置，并进行了现场试验．试验结果表明模糊模型输出与实验室测量值基本一致，平均误差较低且最大误差未超过1门尼．该方法较大地提高了橡胶混炼的生产效率，为粘度最优控制奠定了基础．     

Boundary-fitted grid in landscape modeling

Landscape modeling requires the delineation of system boundaries and interior features. Quite often, these components are complex and difficult to accurately represent. A rectangular grid is used to represent the study and adjacent non-study areas in most cases. When the non-study area occupies a large portion of the grid, computer memory is wasted, and computational time increases. An elliptical grid generator for non-orthogonal curvilinear coordinates is used to generate a boundary-fitted grid for a landscape model. In a boundary-fitted grid coordinate system, one coordinate axis follows the landscape domain boundary and is non-orthogonal to the second axis. The boundary-fitted grid uses elliptic partial differential equations to distribute grid points inside the landscape domain. Although the boundary-fitted grid follows the domain boundary, the grid pattern and point allocation remain structured. Thus, a landscape model can use a boundary-fitted grid without changing the model’s data structure or the computational scheme. In this study, a boundary-fitted grid and a raster-based grid were applied to the Everglades Landscape Fire Model. Use of the boundary-fitted grid decreased model simulation time by about one fifth and computer storage by 58% relative to the raster-based grid. Also, the linear characteristics of interior geographical features such as rivers and airboat trails were preserved by the boundary-fitted grid, but not by the raster-based grid. This preservation provided a more reasonable base map for simulating ecological processes, such as fire across heterogenous landscapes.     

几种楼梯面可视化快速参数建模方法

楼梯面的智能化建模问题是建筑、装饰等行业的热点问题．以AutoCAD VBA作为开发工具．给出几种楼梯面可视化参数快速建模方法，并对楼梯面的生成算法进行了探讨．使楼梯面模型的设计更具敏捷化、智能化和可交互性．开发的设计程序可作为AutoCAD命令嵌入到的AutoCAD绘图软件中．以提高用户的设计效率。     

Predicting the spatial distribution of ground flora on large domains using a hierarchical Bayesian model

Accomodation of important sources of uncertainty in ecological models is essential to realistically predicting ecological processes. The purpose of this project is to develop a robust methodology for modeling natural processes on a landscape while accounting for the variability in a process by utilizing environmental and spatial random effects. A hierarchical Bayesian framework has allowed the simultaneous integration of these effects. This framework naturally assumes variables to be random and the posterior distribution of the model provides probabilistic information about the process. Two species in the genus Desmodium were used as examples to illustrate the utility of the model in Southeast Missouri, USA. In addition, two validation techniques were applied to evaluate the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the predictions.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Anthropogenic influences on potential fire spread in a pyrogenic ecosystem of Florida, USA

Fire has historically been an important ecological factor maintaining southeastern U.S. vegetation. Humans have altered natural fire regimes by fragmenting fuels, introducing exotic species, and suppressing fires. Little is known about how these alterations specifically affect spatial fire extent and pattern. We applied historic (1920 and 1943) and current (1990) GIS fuels maps and the FARSITE fire spread model to quantify the differences between historic and current fire spread distributions. We held all fire modeling variables (wind speed and direction, cloud cover, precipitation, humidity, air temperature, fuel moistures, ignition source and location) constant with exception of the fuel models representing different time periods. Model simulations suggest that fires during the early 1900's burned freely across the landscape, while current fires are much smaller, restricted by anthropogenic influences. Fire extent declined linearly with patch density, and there was a quadratic relationship between fire extent and percent landscape covered by anthropogenic features. We found that as little as 10 percent anthropogenic landcover caused a 50 percent decline in fire extent. Most landscapes (conservation or non-conservation areas) are now influenced by anthropogenic features which disrupt spatial fire behavior disproportionately to their actual size. These results suggest that land managers using fire to restore or maintain natural ecosystem function in pyrogenic systems will have to compensate for anthropogenic influences in their burn planning. This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Integration of pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic for dose optimization of doxycycline against Haemophilus parasuis in pigs

The aims of this study were to establish optimal doses of doxycycline (dox) against Haemophilus parasuis on the basis of pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic (PK‐PD) integration modeling. The infected model was established by intranasal inoculation of organism in pigs and confirmed by clinical signs, blood biochemistry, and microscopic examinations. The recommended dose (20 mg/kg b.w.) was administered in pigs through intramuscular routes for PK studies. The area under the concentration 0‐ to 24‐hr curve (AUC_0–24), elimination half‐life (T_½ke), and mean residence time (MRT) of dox in healthy and H. parasuis‐infected pigs were 55.51 ± 5.72 versus 57.10 ± 4.89 μg·hr/ml, 8.28 ± 0.91 versus 9.80 ± 2.38 hr, and 8.43 ± 0.27 versus 8.79 ± 0.18 hr, respectively. The minimal inhibitory concentration (MIC) of dox against 40 H. parasuis isolates was conducted through broth microdilution method, the corresponding MIC₅₀ and MIC₉₀ were 0.25 and 1 μg/ml, respectively. The Ex vivo growth inhibition data suggested that dox exhibited a concentration‐dependent killing mechanism. Based on the observed AUC_24 hr/MIC values by modeling PK‐PD data in H. parasuis‐infected pigs, the doses predicted to obtain bacteriostatic, bactericidal, and elimination effects for H. parasuis over 24 hr were 5.25, 8.55, and 10.37 mg/kg for the 50% target attainment rate (TAR), and 7.26, 13.82, and 18.17 mg/kg for 90% TAR, respectively. This study provided a more optimized alternative for clinical use and demonstrated that the dosage 20 mg/kg of dox by intramuscular administration could have an effective bactericidal activity against H. parasuis.     

Challenges in developing and implementing a decision support systems (ETÇAP) in forest management planning: a case study in Honaz and Ibradı, Turkey

Decision support systems (DSSs) are indispensable tools in preparing a forest management plan for a better combination of multiple forest values. This study attempted to develop and explain a stand-based forest management DSS (Ecosystem-based multiple-use forest planning [ETÇAP]) comprising a traditional simulation, linear programming (LP), metaheuristics and geographic information system. The model consists of five submodels; traditional management approach to handle inventory data, an empirical growth and yield model, a simulation to conceptualize management actions, a LP technique to optimize resource allocation and a simulated annealing approach to directly create a spatially feasible harvest schedule. The ETÇAP model has been implemented in a comparative two case study areas; Denizli–Honaz and Akseki–Ibrad?. Both simulation and optimization models outperformed to the traditional management plan. The periodical change of growing stock, allowable cuts, carbon sequestration and water production are used as performance indicators. The results showed that more amount of wood could be harvested over time compared to traditional level of harvesting. It could be concluded that various management strategies allowed managers to stimulate more decision options for better outputs through intertemporal trade-offs of management interventions as the model provided tools to quantify forest dynamics over time and space. Challenges exist to establish the functional relationships between forest structure and values for better quantification and integration into the management plans.