基于格网的GCM数据修订分析未来海南岛农业水热资源的变化特征

以海南岛为研究区域，选用5个大气环流模式（GCMs）1970−1999年的逐日输出数据和同期地面气象观测数据，使用空间插值降尺度到0.5°×0.5°格网。以格网单元为基础，应用系统误差修订（修正值法或比值法）和多模式集合平均方法（贝叶斯模型平均法BMA或等权重平均法EW），训练与验证GCMs输出值并进行综合修订。在此基础上，分析RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下，未来海南岛近期（2020−2059年）和远期（2060−2099年）农业水热资源，包括年平均气温、1月平均气温、≥10℃积温、≥20℃积温、年降水量、1月降水量和≥20℃界限温度生长期间降水量的变化特征。结果表明：GCMs输出值的系统误差和BMA权重系数在格网间存在较大的空间差异，且GCMs输出值低估逐日最高气温约3.55℃，高估逐日最低气温约1.19℃，逐日降水量仅为观测值的54.35%。基于格网的综合修订，可有效降低GCMs输出值在空间上的不确定性，BMA与EW的修订结果相似，均优于单一GCM模式。通过格网BMA综合修订后，最高气温、最低气温和降水量在验证期的相关系数r分别约提升0.10、0.07和0.06；均方根误差RMSE分别约降低2.38℃、1.01℃和1.01mm；较单一GCM相对观测值的偏差平均约减少3.25℃、1.13℃和25.67mm。未来海南岛农业热量资源在空间上主要表现为从中部向外围逐渐升高，高温主要分布在南部至西部沿海地区，年平均气温的增幅全岛较为接近，1月平均气温、≥10℃积温和≥20℃积温的增幅分别表现为由东向西、由北向南和由中部向外围递减。在时间上，RCP8.5情景下所有农业热量资源均为极显著增加且增温最快，RCP4.5情景为先增加后平缓，RCP2.6情景较为平缓，远期无显著增温。未来海南岛降水资源在空间上转为由东向西逐步递减的格局，南部和北部沿海地区降水变率增加，西部和中部降水变率减少，在时间上无显著变化趋势。随着未来海南岛气候变暖和降水格局的改变，农作物适宜种植面积扩大，会对农业生产带来巨大挑战，应提前布局，做好趋利避害。     

Prediction of baking results from farinograph measurements by using stepwise linear regression and artificial neuronal networks

In an effort to extract additional data from farinograph experiments a model was developed to simulate the measurements and correlate the parameters of the model with results from baking tests. This additional information can be used in bakeries to predict the baking properties of the flours and adjust the recipes to maintain a constant product quality. For this eight different flours were characterized with a farinograph and 13 different results from baking experiments. An approach with five nonlinear differential equations was able to model the farinograph measurements very well (average R² = 0.995 ± 0.005). While a stepwise multilinear regression only showed weak correlations in cross validation between a single parameter of the model and the baking volume (R² = 0.745) and the volume yield (R² = 0.796) respectively, the artificial neuronal network was more successful. For the baking weight (R² = 0.926), the dough yield gross (R² = 0.909) and net (R² = 0.913) strong correlations were found. A good correlation for the baking volume (R² = 0.853) was also determined, while the volume yield showed comparable results to the linear regression (R² = 0.792).     

鄂托克前旗近50年降水变化特征分析

本文利用鄂托克前旗1967-2018年气象观测站近50年的气象资料,对鄂托克前旗降水特征进行分析。结果表明：整体来说，鄂托克前旗的年降水量变化呈现微弱降低趋势，每10a大约减少1.2mm；28a时间尺度决定的主周期控制着该地区的年降水变化特征，通过周期和突变分析，预计未来三年左右降水高于多年平均值，随后的14年左右时间内降水量呈现减少趋势，逐渐低于多年平均降水量。     

浙江省油菜花期降水量风险评估

对浙江省66个县市(区)1971—2014年油菜花期降水量及油菜产量资料进行统计分析,并基于信息扩散的风险评估模型,对浙江省油菜花期降水量在各级降水量下的超越概率进行计算分析,评估各地油菜花期面临的旱涝风险;同时分析了浙江省油菜花期各级降水量风险值与油菜产量变化之间的关系。结果表明:油菜花期降水量严重过剩的风险高值区主要位于浙西南地区,降水量短缺风险高值区主要位于浙江省沿海岛屿及宁波的部分县市;浙江省油菜花期降水量短缺基本可以通过灌溉得到改善,但油菜减产与花期降水量过多显著相关,油菜花期降水量300 mm是油菜是否减产的阈值。该结果可为油菜种植合理布局及农业保险政策提供科学依据。     

The effects of density and artificial substrate on intensive shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei nursery production

Recirculating aquaculture systems (RAS) can be installed indoors, allowing year-round production of tropical animals in nearly any climate. A nursery phase is commonly used in Litopenaeus vannamei production since it allows for enhanced biosecurity and better quantification of animals while reducing space requirements. However, it is unclear whether animal density and inclusion of artificial substrate may improve shrimp performance during the nursery phase. In this experiment, we compared shrimp production parameters in two stocking densities with or without the use of an artificial substrate by creating four treatments: low-density LD; 1500 PL/m⁻³, low-density with substrate LDS, high-density HD; 3000 PL/m⁻³), and high-density with substrate (HDS). The LDS and HDS treatments included 0.46-m² of high-density polyethylene 2.5-cm mesh as a substrate, which increased the tank surface area by 21 %. Each treatment was randomly assigned to four 160-l culture tanks, each with a biofilter. The shrimp had an initial weight of 4 mg and were grown for 50 days. The low-density treatments had significantly higher dissolved oxygen (DO) and pH than the high-density treatments (P ≤ 0.001). Specifically, LDS had the highest DO and pH followed by the LD, HD, and HDS treatments, respectively. High-density treatments had significantly higher NO₂-N levels than low-density treatments during week 2 of the experiment when an unusually high concentration of nitrite was observed. FCR was significantly lower in both low-density treatments than in high-density treatments. At harvest, the total biomass (kg m⁻³) was significantly higher in high-density treatments than in low-density treatments (P ≤ 0.001), and the HDS treatment had a significantly greater biomass output than HD. Producers should consider artificial substrate and higher densities during nursery production to maximize shrimp production; however, the effects on water quality should also be taken into account.     

扁穗牛鞭草人工草地中空心莲子草杂草防除效果研究

利用水花生净除莠剂可有效地防除扁穗牛鞭草人工草地中的杂草空心莲子草,平均株防效达26.7%～99.8%,并且在较高防效下药剂对扁穗牛鞭草较为安全。在空心莲子草杂草生长盛期,14%的水花生净乳油以浓度为675ml/hm2～900ml/hm2、各处理对水600ml的防除效果最佳,可达到100%。综合考虑,以525ml/hm2～675ml/hm2的浓度为宜。     

落叶松人工林林分径级结构的研究

本文描述了落叶松人工林抚育后径级结构特征。试验表明，抚育后的林分在一定密度条件下，其密度遵从Ｗｅｉｂｕｌｌ分布，并能保持相当长的时间不变；其密度较大，Ｗｅｉｂｕｌｌ参数值在２～３间变动，ｂ值在６～８间变动；稀疏时不能用Ｗｅｉｂｕｌｌ分布模拟。     

焦锑酸钾沉淀法定位Ca~(2+)在梨生理研究中的应用

介绍了应用焦锑酸钾沉淀法定位Ca2＋的方法，以及在梨生理研究中的具体步骤和应用效果。结果表明：在固定液中加焦锑酸钾处理进行制样，梨树不同器官或组织细胞中的自由态Ca2＋，都能生成焦锑酸钙在原部位沉淀，经染色后在电子显微镜下呈现出黑色颗粒，而固定液中不加焦锑酸钾处理的则没有这种颗粒。再进一步用Ca2＋的专一性鳌合物EGTA进行处理，检查这些黑色颗粒是否消失，以证实黑色颗粒就是Ca2＋，从而可对Ca2＋进行定位标记。在不同的组织细胞及同一组织细胞在不同的生理时期，其被标记的Ca2＋密度和场所是不同的，可通过其动态变化来探讨它的作用机理。还对用此方法定位Ca2＋的注意事项进行了讨论。     

家蚕种茧育稚蚕人工饲料育的比较试验

通过对日系种茧育稚蚕人工饲料育繁育的一代杂交种进行比较试验。探讨人工饲料在种茧育上的应用可能性。     

黑鹳F2的人工孵化及育雏的研究

2001～2004年在齐齐哈尔市龙沙公园对黑鹳F2的5只雏鸟的人工孵化温度和湿度进行记录。并对人工育雏成活的雏鸟的一系列生长指标如：体重、体长、喙长、翅长、跗跖长和尾长等进行测量，探讨黑鹳体长、体重等生长指标生长变化规律。结果表明：黑鹳卵的前中期（1～29d）孵化温度为37．7℃，湿度为55％，后期（29～31d）出雏温度为37℃，相对湿度65％；育雏箱的温度前7d为37℃，以后以每天0．5℃幅度逐渐降低，箱内湿度保持在55％，20日龄后可在室温下饲养；黑鹳F2雏鸟各生长指标的增长呈Logistic曲线。