浙江省油菜花期降水量风险评估

对浙江省66个县市(区)1971—2014年油菜花期降水量及油菜产量资料进行统计分析,并基于信息扩散的风险评估模型,对浙江省油菜花期降水量在各级降水量下的超越概率进行计算分析,评估各地油菜花期面临的旱涝风险;同时分析了浙江省油菜花期各级降水量风险值与油菜产量变化之间的关系。结果表明:油菜花期降水量严重过剩的风险高值区主要位于浙西南地区,降水量短缺风险高值区主要位于浙江省沿海岛屿及宁波的部分县市;浙江省油菜花期降水量短缺基本可以通过灌溉得到改善,但油菜减产与花期降水量过多显著相关,油菜花期降水量300 mm是油菜是否减产的阈值。该结果可为油菜种植合理布局及农业保险政策提供科学依据。

Risk assessment of precipitation during rape's flower period in Zhejiang Province

Precipitation during flower period and yield of rape in 66 counties of Zhejiang Province from 1971 to 2014 was used in this paper. Based on the risk assessment model with information diffusion theory, exceeding probability at different levels of rape's flower period precipitation were calculated and analyzed. Risk of drought and flood in rape's flower period was assessed. Relationship between the risk of rape's flower period precipitation at different levels and the change of rape's yield was also analyzed. Results showed that risk of serious excess precipitation in rape's flower period was mainly located in southwestern Zhejiang. On the other side, risk of scarce precipitation in the same period was mainly located in Zhejiang coastal islands and some counties and cities of Ningbo. The precipitation shortage could be improved by irrigation. However, yield of rape was significantly correlated with the excess of precipitation. 300 mm precipitation was a thresholds value which determined whether the output reduced during rape's flower period. All these results above could provide scientific basis for the rational distribution of rape and agricultural insurance policy.