基于多阶段预报分布的贝叶斯多变量均值向量监控模型

考虑了一类具有多个时间点重置执行价格的欧式熊市（或牛市）重置权证定价.应用鞅定价方法和多维正态分布函数，得到了该类权证价格的显示解和Δ对冲策略，推广了Gray和Whaley的单时点重置权证定价模型.     

基于B-S模型的环保项目投资评价

以ABC公司环保产品开发为例,针对传统项目投资评价在环保项目上的缺点,分析了将实物期权理论运用到环保项目投资评价中的可行性,并运用B-S模型进行定量分析,以期为环保项目投资提供一个新的思路,同时也使环保项目决策变得更加合理。     

Real-time Vehicle Scheduling

The traditional scheduling for vehicle is option in the fixed network. But it can't satisfy the real time environment. The demand of order is changeable and uncertain in real environment. It is convenient for scheduling transforming it into static data, but can't get the advantage on time. This paper proposes a real time vehicle scheduling on the study of traditional scheduling and discusses the model structure and the key technology for the real time system that establishes the base for develop teal time system.     

The Problem of Real Option and Its Frontier Commentary

The method of real option has already become an important tool in the fields of enterprises value evaluation, company finance, strategy investment management, investment decision, finance analysis, corporation merger and acquisition and so on. But there is a lot of problems in both theory and practical application for the method of real option. This article will analyze the research frontier problem of real option and indicate the further research direction.     

公共项目公私合伙制中政府保证的会计问题研究

政府部门应该以国际公共部门会计准则为依据对PPP项目中的政府保证进行会计确认，反映PPP项目中政府保证的成本及其隐含的风险，增强政府部门的成本意识，避免过度提供保证。根据业绩担保类政府保证的看跌期权性质，建议应用期权定价的技术进行会计计量，将其确认为报表中的金融负债。并可通过建立政府保证基金的方式解决政府保证单独估价造成的成本高估问题。     

中国农产品期货市场发展问题研究

从农业自然属性和政府宏观调控两个方面入手，阐述了发展我国农产品期货市场对于中国农业发展和改革的作用，并在研究农产品期货市场的同时，指出了现存的问题及解决办法，深入探讨了农产品期货市场的发展方向。     

原料基地的战略价值研究--期权定价模型的应用

在市场风险下 ,加工企业控制一定比例的原料供应 ,相当于购买了一种期权 ,这种期权对林工联合体有着不可忽视的战略价值 ,它可大大减少加工企业的市场风险暴露。本文应用期权定价模型对这种战略价值进行定量研究 ,敏感分析表明 :当木材市场价格水平、长期资本利率水平越高 ,木材价格波动率越大 ,加工企业拥有原料基地的战略价值越大。期权定价模型的应用为正确认识原料基地的战略价值 ,分析木材限额采伐政策等提供了良好的基础。     

Application of real options theory to forestry investment analysis

This paper demonstrates the utility of the real options approach to forestry investment analysis. The main objectives are to discuss the real option theory and show how it can be adopted to model uncertainty and managerial flexibility in forest management and investment. Secondly, we show how to calculate the option values of selected options that may be available to managers of forest industry firms. The paper provides an empirical application, which compares a forestry investment using the static Faustmann model and the real options approach. Four management options are used for the real options approach: an option to delay reforestation, an option to expand the size of the wood processing plant, an option to abandon the processing plant if timber prices fall below a certain level or due to corporate take-over, and multiple options that evaluated all three options together. All options were evaluated using the binomial option-pricing model, where timber values are assumed to follow a multiplicative binomial process. The results show that the Faustmann analysis rejected the investments as unprofitable, while the option analysis showed that all three options were highly valuable if exercised. When real options are considered, the traditional Faustmann model for assessing the profitability of a forestry investment may fail to provide an adequate decision-making framework because it does not properly value management's ability to adjust to shocks in the economy, as well as risks and uncertainty.     

Model and Computation of Reload Stock Options with Barriers

Reload stock option is proposed as a executive stock option plan having some drawbacks, and prove that it is necessary to treat the reload option as a barrier option with two barriers. The improved reload option pricing model is established which the long incentive and reload feture of executive stock option are included. The pricing formula of the new option and the simulation analysis of it are discussed.     

Research on Market Targeting Model of Selecting Manager and Cooperation Mechanism in Commercial Bank Based on Stock Option

Selecting manager by market and improving team cooperation efficiency are two basal tasks to construct an effective human resource management system of commercial bank in China,but there are the limitations the traditional methods in explaining the players' cooperation.The paper constructs a market targeting model of selecting manager of commercial bank and a game model of team cooperation based on stock option,and then the talent identification mode and team cooperation mechanism in commercial bank are established.It is concluded that talented managers is selected but talent-less is refused owing to stock option incentive mechanism,and employee and managers holding stock plan is an incentive force to whole team if residual remains of shareholder is less than half team residual remains.