Application of science to environmental impact assessment in boreal forest management: The saskatchewan example

A major objective of environmental impact assessment (EIA) is prediction. Two major goals in science are: (1) explanation of observed phenomena, and (2) prediction. The EIA process makes use of the methods of academic science to provide the explanatory framework for the required data gathering which is needed for the scientifically valid prediction of effects. Follow-up monitoring after a development proceeds is required to test the predictions for their accuracy, important in both scientific and decision-making aspects of EIA. This testing is needed not only for future EIAs in the area, but also for ongoing project management. In boreal forest management, where EIA prediction is ecosystem-oriented rather than site-specific only, the EIA process needs to be tied to long-term, ecosystem-based forest management plans. This must be done via ongoing tests of predictions, and then by feeding the test-derived information back into a dynamic decisionmaking process. In Saskatchewan this unique and holistic application of the EIA process to long-term forest ecosystem management has been initiated by applying EIA to the twenty-year management plan required by the holder of any forest management agreement (FMA). This is an example of harnessing scientific predictive and testing capacity of the EIA process to set the stage for ecologically sustainable, integrated forest resource management. This also is an example of local action to address a global problem by ensuring the continued integrity of ecological processes in a portion of Canada's boreal forest.     

Predictive risk mapping of West Nile virus (WNV) infection in Saskatchewan horses

The objective of this study was to develop a model using equine data from geographically limited surveillance locations to predict risk categories for West Nile virus (WNV) infection in horses in all geographic locations across the province of Saskatchewan. The province was divided geographically into low-, medium-, or high-risk categories for WNV, based on available serology information from 923 horses obtained through 4 studies of WNV infection in horse populations in Saskatchewan. Discriminant analysis was used to build models using the observed risk of WNV in horses and geographic division-specific environmental data as well as to predict the risk category for all areas, including those beyond the surveillance zones. High-risk areas were indicated by relatively lower rainfall, higher temperatures, and a lower percentage of area covered in trees, water, and wetland. These conditions were most often identified in the southwest corner of the province. Environmental conditions can be used to identify those areas that are at highest risk for WNV. Public health managers could use prediction maps, which are based on animal or human information and developed from annual early season meteorological information, to guide ongoing decisions about when and where to focus intervention strategies for WNV.     

Case-control study investigating an anthrax outbreak in Saskatchewan, Canada--Summer 2006

In 2006, an outbreak of anthrax in Saskatchewan affected several species but most of the losses occurred in cattle. Potential risk factors contributing to this outbreak were investigated through questionnaires involving 117 case farms and 259 control farms geographically representative of the Saskatchewan beef herd. The occurrence of flooding [odds ratio (OR) = 3.4; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.8 to 6.4], wetter pastures (Good: OR = 3.5; 95% CI: 1.4 to 8.5; Wet: OR = 7.2; 95% CI: 2.9 to 18.1), shorter pasture grass length (OR = 3.0; 95% CI: 1.4 to 6.4), and higher density of the animals on pasture (OR = 3.0; 95% CI: 1.6 to 5.7) were more likely to have been reported for case herds than for control herds. Case farms were more likely than control farms to have vaccinated more than 1 week after the first reported case in the rural municipality (OR = 6.3; 95% CI: 2.6 to 15.3). Timing of vaccination in case herds was also significantly associated with the occurrence of subsequent deaths on these farms (P = 0.001).     

Prediction of human cases of West Nile virus by equine cases, Saskatchewan, Canada, 2003

In 2003, an outbreak of West Nile virus (WNV) occurred in Saskatchewan, Canada from July to September. One-hundred thirty-three horse cases and 947 human cases were recorded and data were analyzed retrospectively for evidence of clustering to determine if clinical infection in the horse population could be used to estimate human risk of infection with WNV. Kulldorff's scan statistic was used to identify spatial-temporal clusters in both the human and horse cases. In most areas, human clusters were not preceded by horse clusters. In one area, a significant cluster of horse cases preceded human cases by 1 week; however, 1 week does not provide sufficient time for human-health authorities to act and provide advance warning for the public.     

PC Software for Artificial Intelligence Applications

Our review has emphasized that AI tools are programming languages inspired by some problem-solving paradigm. We want to underscore their status as programming languages; even if an AI tool seems to fit a problem perfectly, its proficient use still requires the training and practice associated with any programming language. The programming manuals for PC-Plus, Smalltalk/ V, and Nexpert Object are all tutorial in nature, and the corresponding software packages come with sample applications. We find the manuals to be uniformly good introductions that try to anticipate the problems of a user who is new to the technology. All three vendors offer free technical support by telephone to licensed users. AI tools are sometimes oversold as a way to make programming easy or to avoid it altogether. The truth is that AI tools demand programming-but programming that allows you to concentrate on the essentials of the problem. If we had to implement a diagnostic system, we would look first to a product such as PC-Plus rather than BASIC or C, because PC-Plus is designed specifically for such a problem, whereas these conventional languages are not. If we had to implement a system that required graphical interfaces and could benefit from inheritance, we would look first to an object-oriented system such as Smalltalk/V that provides built-in mechanisms for both. If we had to implement an expert system that called for some mix of AI and conventional techniques, we would look first to a product such as Nexpert Object that integrates various problem-solving technologies. Finally, we might use FORTRAN if we were concerned primarily with programming a well-defined numerical algorithm. AI tools are a valuable complement to traditional languages.     

Renovating dependency and self-reliance for participatory sustainable development

Dependency stands for manygrievances and is generally considered asymptom of oppression. An opposing concept,offered as the preferred state, isself-reliance. Dependency and self-reliance arekey concepts in sustainable developmentprograms that feature participatory approaches.Some of the ways in which development projectsemploy the concepts of dependency andself-reliance, however, are troubling.Dependency and self-reliance in two programsfor participatory sustainable development areexamined, one in Canada and the other in NewZealand. Frameworks for dependency and self-reliance aredrawn from social psychology and philosophy toexamine problematic aspects associated with theconcepts. Analysis produced a proposal foruse of the term situatedinterdependence as a way to cast the outcomesof participatory sustainable development moreprecisely. The location of the cases (Canadaand New Zealand) centers the discussion withina context of industrialized agriculture, butalso points to issues pertinent to developingcountries.     

Defining important canine zoonotic pathogens within the Prairie Provinces of Canada

The goal of this study was to establish a short list of zoonotic pathogens involving the domestic dog that can be prioritized for a companion animal surveillance program specific to the Prairie Provinces of Canada. A list of pathogens documented in dogs was created through a comprehensive review of infectious disease textbooks for the following taxonomical categories: bacteria, ectoparasites, fungi, helminths, protozoa, rickettsia, and viruses. This created an initial list of 594 pathogens that was then pared down through an extensive review of the literature using the following criteria: i) the pathogen is zoonotic/sapronotic/anthroponotic; ii) the dog is involved in transmission to humans, maintenance, or detection of the pathogen; and iii) there is a level of risk for occurrence of the pathogen in Canada. This process yielded a final list of 84 pathogens and 3 supplementary lists of canine zoonotic/sapronotic/anthroponotic pathogens that may become relevant to future surveillance programs.