Multi-model comparison on the effects of climate change on tree species in the eastern U.S.: results from an enhanced niche model and process-based ecosystem and landscape models

Context

Species distribution models (SDM) establish statistical relationships between the current distribution of species and key attributes whereas process-based models simulate ecosystem and tree species dynamics based on representations of physical and biological processes. TreeAtlas, which uses DISTRIB SDM, and Linkages and LANDIS PRO, process-based ecosystem and landscape models, respectively, were used concurrently on four regional climate change assessments in the eastern Unites States.

Objectives

We compared predictions for 30 species from TreeAtlas, Linkages, and LANDIS PRO, using two climate change scenarios on four regions, to derive a more robust assessment of species change in response to climate change.

Methods

We calculated the ratio of future importance or biomass to current for each species, then compared agreement among models by species, region, and climate scenario using change classes, an ordinal agreement score, spearman rank correlations, and model averaged change ratios.

Results

Comparisons indicated high agreement for many species, especially northern species modeled to lose habitat. TreeAtlas and Linkages agreed the most but each also agreed with many species outputs from LANDIS PRO, particularly when succession within LANDIS PRO was simulated to 2300. A geographic analysis showed that a simple difference (in latitude degrees) of the weighted mean center of a species distribution versus the geographic center of the region of interest provides an initial estimate for the species’ potential to gain, lose, or remain stable under climate change.

Conclusions

This analysis of multiple models provides a useful approach to compare among disparate models and a more consistent interpretation of the future for use in vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning.

     

Assessing wild bees in perennial bioenergy landscapes: effects of bioenergy crop composition,landscape configuration,and bioenergy crop area

Context

Wild bee populations are currently under threat, which has led to recent efforts to increase pollinator habitat in North America. Simultaneously, U.S. federal energy policies are beginning to encourage perennial bioenergy cropping (PBC) systems, which have the potential to support native bees.

Objectives

Our objective was to explore the potentially interactive effects of crop composition, total PBC area, and PBC patches in different landscape configurations.

Methods

Using a spatially-explicit modeling approach, the Lonsdorf model, we simulated the impacts of three perennial bioenergy crops (PBC: willow, switchgrass, and prairie), three scenarios with different total PBC area (11.7, 23.5 and 28.8% of agricultural land converted to PBC) and two types of landscape configurations (PBC in clustered landscape patterns that represent realistic future configurations or in dispersed neutral landscape models) on a nest abundance index in an Illinois landscape.

Results

Our modeling results suggest that crop composition and PBC area are particularly important for bee nest abundance, whereas landscape configuration is associated with bee nest abundance at the local scale but less so at the regional scale.

Conclusions

Strategies to enhance wild bee habitat should therefore emphasize the crop composition and amount of PBC.

     

Effects of basal debris on glacier flow

Glacier movement is resisted partially by debris, either within glaciers or under glaciers in water-saturated layers. In experiments beneath a thick, sliding glacier, ice containing 2 to 11% debris exerted shear traction of 60 to 200 kilopascals on a smooth rock bed, comparable to the total shear traction beneath glaciers and contrary to the usual assumption that debris-bed friction is negligible. Imposed pore-water pressure that was 60 to 100% of the normal stress in a subglacial debris layer reduced shear traction on the debris sufficiently to halt its deformation and cause slip of ice over the debris. Slip resistance was thus less than debris shearing resistance.     

Dynamic pore-pressure fluctuations in rapidly shearing granular materials

Results from two types of experiments show that intergranular pore pressures fluctuated dynamically during rapid, steady shear deformation of water-saturated granular materials. During some fluctuations, the pore water locally supported all normal and shear stresses, while grain-contact stresses transiently fell to zero. Fluctuations also propagated outward from the shear zone; this process modifies grain-contact stresses in adjacent areas and potentially instigates shear-zone growth.     

Generation of a large combinatorial library of the immunoglobulin repertoire in phage lambda

A novel bacteriophage lambda vector system was used to express in Escherichia coli a combinatorial library of Fab fragments of the mouse antibody repertoire. The system allows rapid and easy identification of monoclonal Fab fragments in a form suitable for genetic manipulation. It was possible to generate, in 2 weeks, large numbers of monoclonal Fab fragments against a transition state analog hapten. The methods described may supersede present-day hybridoma technology and facilitate the production of catalytic and other antibodies.     

A Gis-derived integrated moisture index to predict forest composition and productivity of Ohio forests (U.S.A.)

A geographic information system (GIS) approach was used in conjunction with forest-plot data to develop an integrated moisture index (IMI), which was then used to predict forest productivity (site index) and species composition for forests in Ohio. In this region, typical of eastern hardwoods across the Midwest and southern Appalachians, topographic aspect and position (rather than elevation) change drastically at the fine scale and strongly influence many ecological functions. Elevational contours, soil series mapping units, and plot locations were digitized for the Vinton Furnace Experimental Forest in southeastern Ohio and gridded to 7.5-m cells for GIS modeling. Several landscape features (a slope-aspect shading index, cumulative flow of water downslope, curvature of the landscape, and water-holding capacity of the soil) were used to create the IMI, which was then statistically analyzed with site-index values and composition data for plots. On the basis of IMI values for forest land harvested in the past 30 years, we estimated oak site index and the percentage composition of two major species groups in the region: oak (Quercus spp.), and yellow poplar (Liriodendron tulipifera) plus black cherry (Prunus serotina). The derived statistical relationships were then applied in the GIS to create maps of site index and composition, and verified with independent data. The maps show the oaks will dominate on dry, ridge top positions (i.e., low site index), while the yellow poplar and black cherry will predominate on mesic sites. Digital elevation models with coarser resolution (1:24K, 1:100K, 1:250K) also were tested in the same manner. We had generally good success for 1:24K, moderate success for 1:100K, but no success for 1:250K data. This simple and portable approach has the advantage of using readily available GIS information which is time-invariant and requires no fieldwork. The IMI can be used to better manage forest resources where moisture is limiting and to predict how the resource will change under various forms of ecosystem management.     

Toxic peripheral neuropathy with demyelination in Sprague-Dawley rats given CGS 21595--a 5-lipoxygenase inhibitor.

Male and female Sprague-Dawley rats were given CGS 21595, a pro-drug that is almost immediately metabolized to CGS 19213, a naphthoquinone that acts as a 5-lipoxygenase inhibitor. The compound was administered by gavage to five groups of Sprague-Dawley rats (group Nos. 1, 5, n = 30; group Nos. 2-4, n = 20) at daily doses of 0, 50, 150, 500, or 1,000 mg/kg for 13 weeks. Rats in the higher dose groups had a reduced weight gain, but significant neurologic signs were not observed. A peripheral neuropathy consisting predominantly of myelin destruction in the spinal nerve roots and sciatic nerves in male rats treated with greater than or equal to 150 mg/kg CGS 21595 and in female rats treated with greater than or equal to 50 mg/kg CGS 21595 for 13 weeks. This lesion was not fully reversible after a recovery period of 4 weeks. Lesions consisted of ballooning of myelin sheaths, infiltration by macrophages, demyelination, and occasional areas of remyelination. Axons were generally preserved, and the brain and spinal cord were not affected. Male and female rats in all treatment groups had cytoplasmic hyaline droplets in the proximal renal tubules. This change was reversible after 4 weeks and was not associated with any other adverse effects on the kidney.