Impacts of population growth, economic development, and technical change on global food production and consumption

Over the next decades mankind will demand more food from fewer land and water resources. This study quantifies the food production impacts of four alternative development scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Partially and jointly considered are land and water supply impacts from population growth, and technical change, as well as forest and agricultural commodity demand shifts from population growth and economic development. The income impacts on food demand are computed with dynamic elasticities. Simulations with a global, partial equilibrium model of the agricultural and forest sectors show that per capita food levels increase in all examined development scenarios with minor impacts on food prices. Global agricultural land increases by up to 14% between 2010 and 2030. Deforestation restrictions strongly impact the price of land and water resources but have little consequences for the global level of food production and food prices. While projected income changes have the highest partial impact on per capita food consumption levels, population growth leads to the highest increase in total food production. The impact of technical change is amplified or mitigated by adaptations of land management intensities.     

Mercury in the Swedish environment — Recent research on causes,consequences and corrective methods

During the last decade a new pattern of Hg pollution has been discerned, mostly in Scandinavia and North America. Fish from low productive lakes, even in remote areas, have been found to have a high Hg content. This pollution problem cannot be connected to single Hg discharges but is due to more widespread air pollution and long-range transport of pollutants. A large number of waters are affected and the problem is of a regional character. The national limits for Hg in fish are exceeded in a large number of lakes. In Sweden alone, it has been estimated that the total number of lakes exceeding the blacklisting limit of 1 mg Hg kg-1 in 1-kg pike is about 10 000. The content of Hg in fish has markedly increased in a large part of Sweden, exceeding the estimate background level by about a factor of 2 to 6. Only in the northernmost part of the country is the content in fish close to natural values. There is, however, a large variation of Hg content in fish within the same region, which is basically due to natural conditions such as the geological and hydrological properties of the drainage area. Higher concentrations in fish are mostly found in smaller lakes and in waters with a higher content of humic matter. Since only a small percentage of the total flow of Hg through a lake basin is transferred into the biological system, the bioavailability and the accumulation pattern of Hg in the food web is of importance for the Hg concentrations in top predators like pike. Especially, the transfer of Hg to low trophic levels seems to be a very important factor in determining the concentration in the food web. The fluxes of biomass through the fish community appear to be dominated by fluxes in the pelagic food web. The Hg in the lake water is therefore probably more important as a secondary source of Hg in pike than is the sediment via the benthic food chain. Different remedy actions to reduce Hg in fish have been tested. Improvements have been obtained by measures designed to reduce the transport of Hg to the lakes from the catchment area, eg. wetland liming and drainage area liming, to reduce the Hg flow via the pelagic nutrient chains, eg. intensive fishing, and to reduce the biologically available proportion of the total lake dose of Hg, eg. lake liming with different types of lime and additions of selenium. The length of time necessary before the remedy gives result is a central question, due to the long half-time of Hg in pike. In general it has been possible to reduce the Hg content in perch by 20 to 30% two years after treatments like lake liming, wetland liming, drainage area liming and intensive fishing. Selenium treatment is also effective, but before this method can be recommended, dosing problems and questions concerning the effects of selenium on other species must be evaluated. Regardless how essential these kind of remedial measures may be in a short-term perspective, the only satisfactory long-term alternative is to minimize the Hg contamination in air, soil and water. Internationally, the major sources of Hg emissions to the atmosphere are chlor-alkali factories, waste incineration plants, coal and peat combustion units and metal smelter industries. In the combustion processes without flue gas cleaning systems, probably about 20 to 60% of the Hg is emitted in divalent forms. In Sweden, large amounts of Hg were emitted to the atmosphere during the 50s and 60s, mainly from chlor-alkali plants and from metal production. In those years, the discharges from point sources were about 20 to 30 t yr 1. Since the end of the 60s, the emission of Hg has been reduced dramatically due to better emission control legislation, improved technology, and reduction of polluting industrial production. At present, the annual emissions of Hg to air are about 3.5 t from point sources in Sweden. In air, more than 95% of Hg is present as the elemental Hg form, HgO⁰. The remaining non-elemental (oxidized) form is partly associated to particles with a high wash-out ratio, and therefore more easily deposited to soils and surface waters by precipitation. The total Hg concentration in air is normally in the range 1 to 4 ng m-3. In oceanic regions in the southern hemisphere, the concentration is generally about 1 ng m^?3, while the corresponding figure for the northern hemisphere is about 2 ng m-3. In remote continental regions, the concentrations are mainly about 2 to 4 ng m^?3. In precipitation, Hg concentrations are generally found in the range 1 to 100 ng L^?1. In the Nordic countries, yearly mean values in rural areas are about 20 to 40 ng L^?1 in the southern and central parts, and about 10 ng L^?1 in the northern part. Accordingly, wet deposition is about 20 (10 to 35) g km^?2 yr^?1 in southern Scandinavia and 5 (2 to 7) in the northern part. Calculations of Hg deposition based on forest moss mapping techniques give similar values. The general pattern of atmospheric deposition of Hg with decreasing values from the southwest part of the country towards the north, strongly suggests that the deposition over Sweden is dominated by sources in other European countries. This conclusion is supported by analyses of air parcel back trajectories and findings of significant covariations between Hg and other long range transported pollutants in the precipitation. Apart from the long range transport of anthropogenic Hg, the deposition over Sweden may also be affected by an oxidation of elemental Hg in the atmosphere. Atmospheric Hg deposited on podzolic soils, the most common type of forest soil in Sweden, is effectively bound in the humus-rich upper parts of the forest soil. In the Tiveden area in southern Sweden, about 75 to 80% of the yearly deposition is retained in the humus layer, chemically bound to S or Se atoms in the humic structure. The amount of Hg found in the B horizon of the soils is probably only slightly influenced by anthropogenic emissions. In the deeper layers of the soil, hardly any accumulation of Hg takes place. The dominating horizontal flow in the soils takes place in the uppermost soil layers (0 to 20 cm) during periods of high precipitation and high groun water level in the soils. The yearly transport of Hg within the soils has been calculated to be about 5 to 6 g km^?2. The specific transport of total Hg from the soil system to running waters and lakes in Sweden is about 1 to 6 g km^?2 yr¹. The transport of Hg is closely related to the transport of humic matter in the water. The main factors influencing the Hg content and the transport of Hg in run-off waters from soils are therefore the Hg content in soils, the transport of humic matter from the soils and the humus content of the water. Other factors, for example acidification of soils and waters, are of secondary importance. Large peatlands and major lake basins in the catchment area reduce the out-transport of Hg from such areas. About 25 to 75% of the total load of Hg of lakes in southern and central Sweden originates from run-off from the catchment area. In lakes where the total load is high, the transport from run-off is the dominating pathway. The total Hg concentrations in soil solution are usually in the range 1 to 50, in ground water 0.5 to 15 and in run-off and lake water 2 to 12 ng L^?1, respectively. The variation is largely due to differences in the humus content of the waters. In deep ground water with a low content of humic substances, the Hg concentration is usually below 1 ng L^?1. The present amount and concentrations of Hg in the mor layer of forest soils are affected by the total anthropogenic emissions of Hg to the atmosphere, mainly during this century. Especially in the southern part of Sweden and in the central part along the Bothnian coast, the concentrations in the mor layer are markedly high. In southern areas the anthropogenic part of the total Hg content is about 70 to 90%. Here, the increased content in these soils is mainly caused by long-range transport and emissions from other European countries, while high level areas in the central parts are markedly affected by local historical emissions, mainly from the chlor-alkali industry. When comparing the input/output fluxes to watersheds it is evident that the present atmospheric deposition is much higher than the output via run-off waters, on average about 3 to 10 times higher, with the highest ration in the southern parts of Sweden. Obviously, Hg is accumulating in forest soils in Sweden at the present atmospheric deposition rate and, accordingly, the concentrations in forest soils are still increasing despite the fact that the emissions of Hg have drastically been reduced in Sweden during the last decades. The increased content of Hg in forest soils may have an effect on the organisms and the biological processes in the soils. Hg is by far the most toxic metal to microorganisms. In some regions in Sweden, the content of Hg in soils is already today at a level that has been proposed as a critical concentration. To obtain a general decrease in the Hg content in fish and in forest soils, the atmospheric deposition of Hg has to be reduced. The critical atmospheric load of Hg can be defined as the load where the input to the forest soils is less than the output and, consequently, where the Hg content in the top soil layers and the transport of Hg to the surface waters start to decrease. A reduction by about 80% of the present atmospheric wet deposition has to be obtained to reach the critical load for Scandinavia.     

Spatial scaling of soil salinity indices along a temporal coastal reclamation area transect in China using wavelet analysis

High spatial variability of soil salinity in coastal reclamation regions makes it difficult to obtain accurate scale-dependent information. The objectives of this study were to describe the spatial patterns of saline-sodic soil properties (using soil pH, electrical conductivity (EC_1:5) and sodium ion content (SIC) as indicators) and to gain knowledge of the scaling relationships between those variables. The soil pH, EC_1:5 and SIC data were measured at intervals of 285 m along a 13,965-m temporal transect in a coastal region of China. The spatial variability of soil pH was weak but it was strong for soil EC_1:5 and SIC at the measurement scale. There was a significant positive correlation between soil EC_1:5 and SIC, while correlations between soil pH and either EC_1:5 or SIC were weak and negative. For each saline-sodic soil parameter, the variability changed with the decomposition scales. The high-variance area at the larger scales (≥570 m) occupied less than 10% of the total area in the local wavelet spectrum, which meant that the spatial variations of the salinity indicators were insignificant at these scales. For local wavelet coherency, at a scale of 1500–2800 m and a sampling distance of 0–4500 m, the covariance was statistically significant between any two of the saline-sodic soil parameters.     

Alopecia areata in Eringer cows

Alopecia areata is a hair loss disorder in humans, dogs and horses with a suspected autoimmune aetiology targeting anagen hair follicles. Alopecia areata is only sporadically reported in cows. Recently, we observed several cases of suspected alopecia areata in Eringer cows. The aim of this study was to confirm the presumptive diagnosis of alopecia areata and to define the clinical phenotype and histopathological patterns, including characterization of the infiltrating inflammatory cells. Twenty Eringer cows with alopecia and 11 Eringer cows without skin problems were included in this study. Affected cows had either generalized or multifocal alopecia or hypotrichosis. The tail, forehead and distal extremities were usually spared. Punch biopsies were obtained from the centre and margin of alopecic lesions and normal haired skin. Histological examination revealed several alterations in anagen hair bulbs. These included peri‐ and intrabulbar lymphocytic infiltration, peribulbar fibrosis, degenerate matrix cells with clumped melanosomes and pigmentary incontinence. Mild lymphocytic infiltrative mural folliculitis was seen in the inferior segment and isthmus of the hair follicles. Hair shafts were often unpigmented and dysplastic. The large majority of infiltrating lymphocytes were CD3⁺ T cells, whereas only occasional CD20⁺ lymphocytes were present in the peribulbar infiltrate. Our findings confirm the diagnosis of T‐cell‐mediated alopecia areata in these cows. Alopecia areata appears to occur with increased frequency in the Eringer breed, but distinct predisposing factors could not be identified.     

Modeling heliotropic tree growth in hardwood tree species—A case study on Maesopsis eminii

There are many impacts during a tree's life that affect bole development. In Maesopsis eminii, a high-potential timber species in Uganda, studies have shown that the occurrence of strongly bent boles is the overwhelming reason that boles fail quality criteria. This observation is incongruous with the tree architecture model of Roux, which describes M. eminii as a tree with a strong apical dominance, meaning that it has a strong genetically based preference for vertical growth of the terminal sprout relative to side branches. As external causes for bent boles could be excluded, we demonstrate in this study the proof of heliotropic growth, i.e. an active bending towards light, for M. eminii beyond the sapling stage. We develop a model used to describe the effects of competition on bole quality using bole form parameters and basic information about the neighbouring trees, and without having to incorporate crown parameters. By means of calculated bole parameters and a mathematical equation to calculate the intensity and direction of competition, we prove the existence of a heliotropic growth reaction. However, we are not able to predict the intensity of this reaction. Finally, general silvicultural recommendations are discussed for tree species with strong heliotropic growth.     

Morbillivirus infections of seals during the 1988 epidemic in the Bay of Heligoland: III. Transmission studies of cell culture-propagated phocine distemper virus in harbour seals (Phoca vitulina) and a grey seal (Halichoerus grypus): clinical, virological and serological results

Eight harbour seals (Phoca vitulina), two of them seronegative, six seropositive against PDV and a seronegative grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) were exposed to a low doses of a cell culture-propagated phocine distemper virus isolate (PDV 2558/Han 88). An intranasal route of inoculation was chosen. Clinical signs, resembling those of 1988's seal disease and seroconversion were observed in both seronegative harbour seals. One of them succumbed to the infection. The virus was not transmitted to another susceptible harbour seal which served as in-contact animal. Virus could be recovered from leucocytes of the diseased seals. Viremia was also present in a seropositive harbour seal that developed mild clinical signs; other seropositive seals were protected from clinical disease. The grey seal showed seroconversion upon inoculation, but did not develop any signs of disease. The humoral immune response of the seals plainly discriminated between homologous (PDV) and heterologous (canine distemper virus, CDV) virus as shown by virus neutralization tests and an antibody-binding assay (PLA).     

New strategies for increasing heterozygosity in crops: Vicia faba mating system as a study case

Our research assesses the feasibility of using artificial selection on pre-mating floral traits to modify the mating system of faba bean (Vicia faba). This analysis considered two synthetic populations, which were derived from different genetic pools and had undergone five years of multiplication. For these populations, we identified floral and inflorescence traits that influence outcrossing per plant and examined the relative importance of these traits in governing yield. Codominant isozyme loci and the mixed-mating model were used to estimate the multilocus female outcrossing rate. A maternal half-sib design was used to evaluate the additive genetic component of floral and inflorescence traits, yield and yield components. Multiple regression was used to assess the effects of floral and inflorescence traits on outcrossing and yield and components of yield. The two populations exhibited mixing mating. Self-fertilization appears to result from the action of pollinating bees, so that its incidence could be modified by selection on floral and inflorescence traits that affect pollination. Floral and inflorescence traits affected individual differences in outcrossing unequally, with most variation being associated with the numbers of displayed flowers and inflorescences. Variation among plants in reward traits and in shape, although statistically significant, had limited and inconsistent influences on individual differences in outcrossing. Yield and its components varied strongly with aspects of floral display and, to a lesser extent, floral design, except for seed weight. Overall, our results imply that both outcrossing and yield could be enhanced by selection for plants that produce more inflorescences, each with relatively few flowers.     

Cell wall thickness during growth of domestic and foreign potato cultivars

During growth of Russet Burbank tubers from less than 100 to over 250 g, thickness of parenchyma cell walls nearly doubled (1.9X) to slightly over 1 μ. Although affecting cell size at harvest maturity, different levels of N fertilizer and soil moisture had little influence on wall thickness. Wall thickness in Kennebec and Norchip increased to 0.9μ (1.7X), and in White Rose to slightly under 0.8 (1.2X). During the same growth, cell size nearly doubled in Russet Burbank. Cells of Kennebec, Norchip and White Rose averaged smaller than those of Russet Burbank at harvest maturity. Wall thickness and cell size showed similar relationships in foreign cultivars. Wall thickness in European varieties Bintje and Pimpernel was comparable to that of White Rose. Thickness in Atjimba closely approached that of Russet Burbank, and in Kamarz was similar to that of Norchip. Among South American cultivars, Doré had unusually thick walls (1.36μ), whereas those in Fruitella and Papa Bianca were between those of Norchip and White Rose. Bintje was comparable to domestic cultivars in tuber size, but all other foreign cultivars studied had medium to small tubers. Doré had unusually large cells for a small tuber. Differences in wall thickness may be due to differences in amounts of cell wall material, to differences in hydration properties of pectic components, or to combinations of both. Independently of wall thickness, the many primary pit fields in parenchyma walls may be a limiting factor in wall strength. The very thin pit membranes consist mainly of cellulosic microfibrils formed early in cell growth.     

Apparatus for measuring change in the potato soil bed profile and relationship of change to soil density and air permeability

A profilometer was constructed to measure changes occurring in the potato soil bed profile during growth of a potato crop. Changes in bed cross sectional area were found to be closely related to changes in soil bulk density and air permeability. The instrument was helpful in rapid approximation of these parameters of the physical condition of a Hesperia sandy loam soil.