Impacts of population growth, economic development, and technical change on global food production and consumption

Over the next decades mankind will demand more food from fewer land and water resources. This study quantifies the food production impacts of four alternative development scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Partially and jointly considered are land and water supply impacts from population growth, and technical change, as well as forest and agricultural commodity demand shifts from population growth and economic development. The income impacts on food demand are computed with dynamic elasticities. Simulations with a global, partial equilibrium model of the agricultural and forest sectors show that per capita food levels increase in all examined development scenarios with minor impacts on food prices. Global agricultural land increases by up to 14% between 2010 and 2030. Deforestation restrictions strongly impact the price of land and water resources but have little consequences for the global level of food production and food prices. While projected income changes have the highest partial impact on per capita food consumption levels, population growth leads to the highest increase in total food production. The impact of technical change is amplified or mitigated by adaptations of land management intensities.     

Mercury in the Swedish environment — Recent research on causes,consequences and corrective methods

During the last decade a new pattern of Hg pollution has been discerned, mostly in Scandinavia and North America. Fish from low productive lakes, even in remote areas, have been found to have a high Hg content. This pollution problem cannot be connected to single Hg discharges but is due to more widespread air pollution and long-range transport of pollutants. A large number of waters are affected and the problem is of a regional character. The national limits for Hg in fish are exceeded in a large number of lakes. In Sweden alone, it has been estimated that the total number of lakes exceeding the blacklisting limit of 1 mg Hg kg-1 in 1-kg pike is about 10 000. The content of Hg in fish has markedly increased in a large part of Sweden, exceeding the estimate background level by about a factor of 2 to 6. Only in the northernmost part of the country is the content in fish close to natural values. There is, however, a large variation of Hg content in fish within the same region, which is basically due to natural conditions such as the geological and hydrological properties of the drainage area. Higher concentrations in fish are mostly found in smaller lakes and in waters with a higher content of humic matter. Since only a small percentage of the total flow of Hg through a lake basin is transferred into the biological system, the bioavailability and the accumulation pattern of Hg in the food web is of importance for the Hg concentrations in top predators like pike. Especially, the transfer of Hg to low trophic levels seems to be a very important factor in determining the concentration in the food web. The fluxes of biomass through the fish community appear to be dominated by fluxes in the pelagic food web. The Hg in the lake water is therefore probably more important as a secondary source of Hg in pike than is the sediment via the benthic food chain. Different remedy actions to reduce Hg in fish have been tested. Improvements have been obtained by measures designed to reduce the transport of Hg to the lakes from the catchment area, eg. wetland liming and drainage area liming, to reduce the Hg flow via the pelagic nutrient chains, eg. intensive fishing, and to reduce the biologically available proportion of the total lake dose of Hg, eg. lake liming with different types of lime and additions of selenium. The length of time necessary before the remedy gives result is a central question, due to the long half-time of Hg in pike. In general it has been possible to reduce the Hg content in perch by 20 to 30% two years after treatments like lake liming, wetland liming, drainage area liming and intensive fishing. Selenium treatment is also effective, but before this method can be recommended, dosing problems and questions concerning the effects of selenium on other species must be evaluated. Regardless how essential these kind of remedial measures may be in a short-term perspective, the only satisfactory long-term alternative is to minimize the Hg contamination in air, soil and water. Internationally, the major sources of Hg emissions to the atmosphere are chlor-alkali factories, waste incineration plants, coal and peat combustion units and metal smelter industries. In the combustion processes without flue gas cleaning systems, probably about 20 to 60% of the Hg is emitted in divalent forms. In Sweden, large amounts of Hg were emitted to the atmosphere during the 50s and 60s, mainly from chlor-alkali plants and from metal production. In those years, the discharges from point sources were about 20 to 30 t yr 1. Since the end of the 60s, the emission of Hg has been reduced dramatically due to better emission control legislation, improved technology, and reduction of polluting industrial production. At present, the annual emissions of Hg to air are about 3.5 t from point sources in Sweden. In air, more than 95% of Hg is present as the elemental Hg form, HgO⁰. The remaining non-elemental (oxidized) form is partly associated to particles with a high wash-out ratio, and therefore more easily deposited to soils and surface waters by precipitation. The total Hg concentration in air is normally in the range 1 to 4 ng m-3. In oceanic regions in the southern hemisphere, the concentration is generally about 1 ng m^?3, while the corresponding figure for the northern hemisphere is about 2 ng m-3. In remote continental regions, the concentrations are mainly about 2 to 4 ng m^?3. In precipitation, Hg concentrations are generally found in the range 1 to 100 ng L^?1. In the Nordic countries, yearly mean values in rural areas are about 20 to 40 ng L^?1 in the southern and central parts, and about 10 ng L^?1 in the northern part. Accordingly, wet deposition is about 20 (10 to 35) g km^?2 yr^?1 in southern Scandinavia and 5 (2 to 7) in the northern part. Calculations of Hg deposition based on forest moss mapping techniques give similar values. The general pattern of atmospheric deposition of Hg with decreasing values from the southwest part of the country towards the north, strongly suggests that the deposition over Sweden is dominated by sources in other European countries. This conclusion is supported by analyses of air parcel back trajectories and findings of significant covariations between Hg and other long range transported pollutants in the precipitation. Apart from the long range transport of anthropogenic Hg, the deposition over Sweden may also be affected by an oxidation of elemental Hg in the atmosphere. Atmospheric Hg deposited on podzolic soils, the most common type of forest soil in Sweden, is effectively bound in the humus-rich upper parts of the forest soil. In the Tiveden area in southern Sweden, about 75 to 80% of the yearly deposition is retained in the humus layer, chemically bound to S or Se atoms in the humic structure. The amount of Hg found in the B horizon of the soils is probably only slightly influenced by anthropogenic emissions. In the deeper layers of the soil, hardly any accumulation of Hg takes place. The dominating horizontal flow in the soils takes place in the uppermost soil layers (0 to 20 cm) during periods of high precipitation and high groun water level in the soils. The yearly transport of Hg within the soils has been calculated to be about 5 to 6 g km^?2. The specific transport of total Hg from the soil system to running waters and lakes in Sweden is about 1 to 6 g km^?2 yr¹. The transport of Hg is closely related to the transport of humic matter in the water. The main factors influencing the Hg content and the transport of Hg in run-off waters from soils are therefore the Hg content in soils, the transport of humic matter from the soils and the humus content of the water. Other factors, for example acidification of soils and waters, are of secondary importance. Large peatlands and major lake basins in the catchment area reduce the out-transport of Hg from such areas. About 25 to 75% of the total load of Hg of lakes in southern and central Sweden originates from run-off from the catchment area. In lakes where the total load is high, the transport from run-off is the dominating pathway. The total Hg concentrations in soil solution are usually in the range 1 to 50, in ground water 0.5 to 15 and in run-off and lake water 2 to 12 ng L^?1, respectively. The variation is largely due to differences in the humus content of the waters. In deep ground water with a low content of humic substances, the Hg concentration is usually below 1 ng L^?1. The present amount and concentrations of Hg in the mor layer of forest soils are affected by the total anthropogenic emissions of Hg to the atmosphere, mainly during this century. Especially in the southern part of Sweden and in the central part along the Bothnian coast, the concentrations in the mor layer are markedly high. In southern areas the anthropogenic part of the total Hg content is about 70 to 90%. Here, the increased content in these soils is mainly caused by long-range transport and emissions from other European countries, while high level areas in the central parts are markedly affected by local historical emissions, mainly from the chlor-alkali industry. When comparing the input/output fluxes to watersheds it is evident that the present atmospheric deposition is much higher than the output via run-off waters, on average about 3 to 10 times higher, with the highest ration in the southern parts of Sweden. Obviously, Hg is accumulating in forest soils in Sweden at the present atmospheric deposition rate and, accordingly, the concentrations in forest soils are still increasing despite the fact that the emissions of Hg have drastically been reduced in Sweden during the last decades. The increased content of Hg in forest soils may have an effect on the organisms and the biological processes in the soils. Hg is by far the most toxic metal to microorganisms. In some regions in Sweden, the content of Hg in soils is already today at a level that has been proposed as a critical concentration. To obtain a general decrease in the Hg content in fish and in forest soils, the atmospheric deposition of Hg has to be reduced. The critical atmospheric load of Hg can be defined as the load where the input to the forest soils is less than the output and, consequently, where the Hg content in the top soil layers and the transport of Hg to the surface waters start to decrease. A reduction by about 80% of the present atmospheric wet deposition has to be obtained to reach the critical load for Scandinavia.     

Photodegradation of phosmet in wool wax models and on sheep wool: determination of wool wax bound phosmet by means of isotope ratio mass spectrometry

The photochemical reactions of phosmet, an organophosphorus insecticide used for plant protection and for control of ectoparasites on productive livestock, were studied in the presence of wool wax. Induced by UV light, phosmet features numerous degradation pathways as well as photoaddition reactions with lipid structure moieties. In model irradiation experiments of phosmet in mixtures of solvents (cyclohexane, cyclohexene, 2-propanol) and fatty acid methyl esters (methyl stearate, methyl oleate, 12-hydroxymethyl stearate), both adjusted to the hydroxyl and iodine values of wool wax, half-lives were determined to be approximately 7 and 16 h, respectively. Irradiation of phosmet on crude sheep wool resulted in a degradation rate of 65% after 24 h. In tracer studies with stable isotope labeled phosmet ([15N]phosmet) in commercial lanolin and on raw sheep wool, employing a sunlight simulator and natural sunlight, wool wax bound phosmet was formed. After extraction and measurement by elemental analyzer/isotope ratio mass spectrometry, delta15N values of the phosmet-free wool wax fractions were notably increased as compared to the value of natural lanolin. Calculated from the delta15N values, an average of 13.9/15.6% (sunlight simulator/natural sunlight) was bound to wool wax lipids after irradiation of thin films of commercial lanolin. In experiments with sheep wool, 13.2 and 15.4%, respectively, were detected as wax-bound.     

Old cultural traditions, in addition to land use and topography, are shaping plant diversity of grasslands in the Alps

Socio-economically motivated land use changes are a major threat for species diversity of grasslands throughout the world. Here, we comprehensively explore how plant species diversity of grasslands in the species-rich cultural landscape of the Swiss Alps depends on recent land use changes, and, neglected in previous studies, on old cultural traditions. We studied diversity in 216 grassland parcels at three altitudinal levels in 12 villages of three cultural traditions (Romanic, Germanic, and Walser). In valleys of Romanic villages more different parcel types tended to occur than in those of Germanic and Walser villages, suggesting that socio-economic differences among cultural traditions still play a role in shaping landscape diversity. Moreover, at the village level, higher man-made landscape diversity was associated with higher plant species richness. All observed changes in land use reduced the farmers’ workload. Plant species richness was lower in fertilized than in unfertilized parcels and in abandoned compared with used parcels. Grazing slightly reduced species richness compared with mowing among unfertilized parcels, while in fertilized parcels it had a positive influence. The highest species diversity was found in mown unfertilized subalpine grasslands. Nevertheless, moderate grazing of former meadows can be a valuable alternative to abandonment. We conclude that the ongoing changes in land use reduce plant species richness within parcels and at the landscape level. To preserve plant species diversity at the landscape level a high diversity of land use types has to be maintained.     

Synergistic effects of Miconazole and Polymyxin B on microbial pathogens

The therapeutic value of antibiotics depends on the susceptibility of the infecting microorganism and the pharmacological profile of the drugs. To assess the value of an antibiotic combination of polymyxin B and miconazole this study examined the in vitro synergistic potential of the two drugs on Gram-negative and Gram-positive bacteria and yeast. Antifungal and antibacterial activity was tested by minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of broth macrodilution and urea broth microdilution, by fluorescence microscopy and flow cytometry. Synergism was calculated using the fractional inhibitory concentration index (FICi). With Staphylococcus intermedius as target we found up to an eightfold reduction of the individual MICs when both drugs were combined. However, the FICi was 0.63 suggesting no real interaction between the two drugs. With Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Malassezia pachydermatis as targets the antimicrobial drug combination reduced the MICs of polymyxin B and miconazole from fourfold to hundredfold resulting in FICi between 0.06 and 0.5 which defines a synergistic action. Thus, if polymyxin B and miconazole are combined their effect is greater than the sum of the effects observed with polymyxin B and miconazole independently, revealing bactericidal and fungicidal synergism. Our results indicate a strong therapeutic value for the combination of these antimicrobial agents against Gram-negative bacteria and yeast and a weaker value against Gram positive bacteria for clinical situations where these pathogens are involved.     

Feline rabies. ABCD guidelines on prevention and management

OverviewRabies virus belongs to the genus Lyssavirus, together with European bat lyssaviruses 1 and 2. In clinical practice, rabies virus is easily inactivated by detergent-based disinfectants.InfectionRabid animals are the only source of infection. Virus is shed in the saliva some days before the onset of clinical signs and transmitted through a bite or a scratch to the skin or mucous membranes. The average incubation period in cats is 2 months, but may vary from 2 weeks to several months, or even years.Disease signsAny unexplained aggressive behaviour or sudden behavioural change in cats must be considered suspicious. Two disease manifestations have been identified in cats: the furious and the dumb form. Death occurs after a clinical course of 1–10 days.DiagnosisA definitive rabies diagnosis is obtained by post-mortem laboratory investigation. However, serological tests are used for post-vaccinal control, especially in the context of international movements.Disease managementPost-exposure vaccination of cats depends on the national public health regulations, and is forbidden in many countries.Vaccination recommendationsA single rabies vaccination induces a long-lasting immunity. Kittens should be vaccinated at 12–16 weeks of age to avoid interference from maternally derived antibodies and revaccinated 1 year later. Although some vaccines protect against virulent rabies virus challenge for 3 years or more, national or local legislation may call for annual boosters.     

Feline leukaemia. ABCD guidelines on prevention and management

OverviewFeline leukaemia virus (FeLV) is a retrovirus that may induce depression of the immune system, anaemia and/or lymphoma. Over the past 25 years, the prevalence of FeLV infection has decreased considerably, thanks both to reliable tests for the identification of viraemic carriers and to effective vaccines.InfectionTransmission between cats occurs mainly through friendly contacts, but also through biting. In large groups of non-vaccinated cats, around 30–40% will develop persistent viraemia, 30–40% show transient viraemia and 20–30% seroconvert. Young kittens are especially susceptible to FeLV infection.Disease signsThe most common signs of persistent FeLV viraemia are immune suppression, anaemia and lymphoma. Less common signs are immune-mediated disease, chronic enteritis, reproductive disorders and peripheral neuropathies. Most persistently viraemic cats die within 2–3 years.DiagnosisIn low-prevalence areas there may be a risk of false-positive results; a doubtful positive test result in a healthy cat should therefore be confirmed, preferably by PCR for provirus. Asymptomatic FeLV-positive cats should be retested.Disease managementSupportive therapy and good nursing care are required. Secondary infections should be treated promptly. Cats infected with FeLV should remain indoors. Vaccination against common pathogens should be maintained. Inactivated vaccines are recommended. The virus does not survive for long outside the host.Vaccination recommendationsAll cats with an uncertain FeLV status should be tested prior to vaccination. All healthy cats at potential risk of exposure should be vaccinated against FeLV. Kittens should be vaccinated at 8–9 weeks of age, with a second vaccination at 12 weeks, followed by a booster 1 year later. The ABCD suggests that, in cats older than 3–4 years of age, a booster every 2–3 years suffices, in view of the significantly lower susceptibility of older cats.     

Control charts applied to simulated sow herd datasets

Statistical control charts were used to detect process change in pig production. Two charts were tested to detect small deviations in production processes: the cumulative sum (CUSUM) control chart and the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart. A Monte-Carlo simulation was used for developing an optimal design of the EWMA and the CUSUM charts. The traits piglets born in total and the return to oestrus rate were considered. Over a given time period, small shifts were purposely implemented to test the performance of the charts. The average time to signal (ATS) and false positive rate (FPR) were taken as classification parameters to evaluate the performance of the charts. All shifts in the number of piglets born in total were detected with CUSUM and EWMA control charts. The trait piglets born in total showed an ATS ranging from 1.3 (FPR = 33.5%) to 6.8 weeks (FPR = 1.2%) using the CUSUM chart. The EWMA chart presented an ATS which ranged between 2.0 (FPR = 14.9%) and 6.3 (FPR = 1.9%) weeks. The application of the CUSUM to the return to oestrus rate resulted in an ATS of 2.6 (FPR =  38.3%) to 15.6 weeks (FPR = 3.0%) and the EWMA chart produced a signal between 4.1 (FPR = 14.5%) and 16.4 weeks (FPR = 1.4%). Both charts appear to be useful tools for tracking commercial swine farm processes and detecting emerging change in process performance.