Analysis of the spatial variation of Bovine tuberculosis disease risk in Spain (2006-2009)

In this study we explored the spatial variation of Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) risk of being positive, new positive or persistently positive, as well as the risk of eliminating BTB in positive herds throughout Spain from 2006 to 2009 by means of hierarchical Bayesian models. The results of the models showed that the risk of infection (positive or new positive herds), persistence and elimination was lower in counties located in north and north-eastern of Spain, and in the Balearic and Canary islands than in the rest of the country. In some counties the risk of positivity was high during the four years of study, whereas there were others where the risk of positivity was high only in some of the years. With regard to the risk of persistence of BTB positive herds, counties located in the central, western and south-western part of the country had a higher risk in the three studied periods. This study has identified some specific areas of increased BTB risk in Spain, information that is useful for disease management.     

Role of wild ruminants in the epidemiology of bluetongue virus serotypes 1, 4 and 8 in Spain

ABSTRACT: Although the importance of wild ruminants as potential reservoirs of bluetongue virus (BTV) has been suggested, the role played by these species in the epidemiology of BT in Europe is still unclear. We carried out a serologic and virologic survey to assess the role of wild ruminants in the transmission and maintenance of BTV in Andalusia (southern Spain) between 2006 and 2010.A total of 473 out of 1339 (35.3%) wild ruminants analyzed showed antibodies against BTV by both ELISA and serum neutralization test (SNT). The presence of neutralizing antibodies to BTV-1 and BTV-4 were detected in the four species analyzed (red deer, roe deer, fallow deer and mouflon), while seropositivity against BTV-8 was found in red deer, fallow deer and mouflon but not in roe deer. Statistically significant differences were found among species, ages and sampling regions. BTV RNA was detected in twenty-one out of 1013 wild ruminants (2.1%) tested. BTV-1 and BTV-4 RNA were confirmed in red deer and mouflon by specific rRT-PCR.BTV-1 and BTV-4 seropositive and RNA positive wild ruminants, including juveniles and sub-adults, were detected years after the last outbreak was reported in livestock. In addition, between the 2008/2009 and the 2010/2011 hunting seasons, the seroprevalence against BTV-1, BTV-4 and BTV-8 increased in the majority of provinces, and these serotypes were detected in many areas where BTV outbreaks were not reported in domestic ruminants. The results indicate that wild ruminants seem to be implicated in the dissemination and persistence of BTV in Spain.     

Ecological Surveillance for West Nile in Catalonia (Spain), Learning from a Five‐Year Period of Follow‐up

To enhance early detection of West Nile virus (WNV) transmission, an integrated ecological surveillance system was implemented in Catalonia (north‐eastern Spain) from 2007 to 2011. This system incorporated passive and active equine surveillance, periodical testing of chicken sentinels in wetland areas, serosurveillance wild birds and testing of adult mosquitoes. Samples from 298 equines, 100 sentinel chickens, 1086 wild birds and 39 599 mosquitoes were analysed. During these 5 years, no acute WNV infection was detected in humans or domestic animal populations in Catalonia. WNV was not detected in mosquitoes either. Nevertheless, several seroconversions in resident and migrant wild birds indicate that local WNV or other closely related flaviviruses transmission was occurring among bird populations. These data indicate that bird and mosquito surveillance can detect otherwise silent transmission of flaviviruses and give some insights regarding possible avian hosts and vectors in a European setting.     

Descriptive and spatial epidemiology of bovine cysticercosis in North-Eastern Spain (Catalonia)

From March 2005 to December 2007, 284 animals from 67 cattle farms (24 dairy and 43 beef) affected by bovine cysticercosis were detected in the region of Catalonia (North-Eastern Spain). Dairy farms were almost twice more likely to be affected than beef farms (OR = 1.79, 95% CI = 1.08–2.96, p < 0.05), and infected premises have a statistically significant (p < 0.05) larger number of animals when compared to uninfected farms in Catalonia.     

Assessment of different surveillance systems for avian influenza in commercial poultry in Catalonia (North-Eastern Spain)

Compulsory surveillance programmes for avian influenza (AI) have been implemented in domestic poultry and wild birds in all the European Member States since 2005. The implementation of these programmes is complex and requires a close evaluation. A good indicator to assess their efficacy is the sensitivity (Se) of the surveillance system. In this study, the sensitivities for different sampling designs proposed by the Spanish authorities for the commercial poultry population of Catalonia were assessed, using the scenario tree model methodology. These samplings were stratified throughout the territory of Spain and took into account the species, the types of production and their specific risks. The probabilities of detecting infection at different prevalences at both individual and holding level were estimated. Furthermore, those subpopulations that contributed more to the Se of the system were identified. The model estimated that all the designs met the requirements of the European Commission. The probability of detecting AI circulating in Catalonian poultry did not change significantly when the within-holding design prevalence varied from 30% to 10%. In contrast, when the among-holding design prevalence decreased from 5% to 1%, the probability of detecting AI was drastically reduced. The sampling of duck and goose holdings, and to a lesser extent the sampling of turkey and game bird holdings, increased the Se substantially. The Se of passive surveillance in chickens for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and low pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) were also assessed. The probability of the infected birds manifesting apparent clinical signs and the awareness of veterinarians and farmers had great influence on the probability of detecting AI. In order to increase the probability of an early detection of HPAI in chicken, the probability of performing AI specific tests when AI is suspected would need to be increased.     

Quantitative assessment of the probability of bluetongue virus overwintering by horizontal transmission: application to Germany

ABSTRACT: Even though bluetongue virus (BTV) transmission is apparently interrupted during winter, bluetongue outbreaks often reappear in the next season (overwintering). Several mechanisms for BTV overwintering have been proposed, but to date, their relative importance remain unclear. In order to assess the probability of BTV overwintering by persistence in adult vectors, ruminants (through prolonged viraemia) or a combination of both, a quantitative risk assessment model was developed. Furthermore, the model allowed the role played by the residual number of vectors present during winter to be examined, and the effect of a proportion of Culicoides living inside buildings (endophilic behaviour) to be explored. The model was then applied to a real scenario: overwintering in Germany between 2006 and 2007. The results showed that the limited number of vectors active during winter seemed to allow the transmission of BTV during this period, and that while transmission was favoured by the endophilic behaviour of some Culicoides, its effect was limited. Even though transmission was possible, the likelihood of BTV overwintering by the mechanisms studied seemed too low to explain the observed re-emergence of the disease. Therefore, other overwintering mechanisms not considered in the model are likely to have played a significant role in BTV overwintering in Germany between 2006 and 2007.     

A synthesis of biological and physical processes affecting the feeding environment of larval walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea

Biological and physical phenomena that affect conditions for larval survival and eventual recruitment differ in the oceanic and shelf regions. In the oceanic region, eddies are a common feature. While their genesis is not well known, eddies have unique biophysical characteristics and occur with such regularity that they likely affect larval survival. High concentrations of larval pollock often are associated with eddies. Some eddies are transported onto the shelf, thereby providing larvae to the Outer Shelf Domain. Advection, rather than local production, dominated the observed springtime increase in chlorophyll (often a correlate of larval food) in the oceanic region. Over two-thirds of the south-eastern shelf, eddies are absent and other phenomena are important. Sea ice is a feature of the shelf region: its interannual variability (time of arrival, persistence, and areal extent) affects developmental rate of larvae, timing of the phytoplankton bloom (and potentially the match/mismatch of larvae and prey), and abundance and distribution of juvenile pollock. In the oceanic region, interannual variation in food for first-feeding pollock larvae is determined by advection; in the shelf region, it is the coupled dynamics of the atmosphere–ice–ocean system.     

Exploratory spatial analysis of Aujeszky's disease during four phases of the eradication programme in Catalonia, Spain (2003-2007)

An exploratory spatial analysis of Aujeszkys disease virus infection from 2003 to 2007 was conducted in Catalonia (north eastern Spain), the largest pig-producing region in the country. The analysis was divided into four periods in relation to the different eradication phases of the programme established in the region. Different purely spatial analyses, based on the Bernoulli model, were run with SaTScan v6.1 in each period. Clusters of positive sow farms (farrow to weaning and farrow to finish) and/or fattening farms were identified in the four study periods in the western part of the region, in the three first periods in the central part and in the last three periods in the north eastern part of the region. The prevalence ratio values of these clusters increased throughout the study period due to the fact that the risk of disease decreased faster outside the clusters than inside the clusters. In order to study the evolution of the disease, we explored for areas where more negative sow farms became infected and areas where more sow farms eliminated the infection. These analyses demonstrated areas with significantly higher proportions of sow farms that became negative, which indicates that the eradication of the disease had a spatial component. Clusters of negative sow farms that were infected again (reinfections) were also detected in the four study periods. The relative risk values of these clusters were much higher compared to the other cluster analyses. There was a geographical association between the clusters of positive sow farms, positive fattening farms and re-infected sow farms. This association could be attributable to the local spread of Aujeszkys disease virus. Pig farm density could be a factor influencing the local spread of infection and was therefore evaluated for clusters of re-infected sow farms and clusters of sow farms that eliminated the infection. The mean density of pig farms was 0.40 farms/km(2) (median of 0.28 and standard deviation of 0.33) in clusters of sow farms that became negative and 1.51 (median of 0.70 and standard deviation of 1.61) in clusters where more sow farms became positive (p-value<0.05).     

Comparison of bovine cysticercosis prevalence detected by antigen ELISA and visual inspection in the North East of Spain

A cross-sectional serological study on cattle less than 2 years old, using an antigen ELISA for the detection of bovine cysticercosis was carried out between November 2009 and February 2010 in 10 slaughterhouses from the Catalonia region (North-Eastern Spain). Circulating antigen was detected in 23 of 2073 animals, i.e. a sero-prevalence of 1.11% (CI95%: 0.76-1.75%). The determined sero-prevalence was about 50 times higher than the prevalence obtained by visual inspection within the same period: 19 positive animals of 90,891 slaughtered animals (0.02%) in the same slaughterhouses. None of the animals with positive result in the Ag-ELISA was detected by meat inspection.     

The role of spatial factors in the success of an Aujeszky's disease eradication programme in a high pig density area (Northeast Spain, 2003–2007)

We tested the role of several spatial variables on the risk of a sow herd being Aujeszky's disease virus (ADV) seropositive in certain areas of North Eastern Spain and during different periods of the eradication programme. Distance to the nearest slaughterhouse, distance to the nearest conventional road and number of ADV serologically positive sows and ADV serologically positive fattening pigs within different distances (1000, 1500 and 2000 m) of each sow herd, were included in a hierarchical Bayesian binomial model. A variable without spatial characteristics, type of herd (farrow to weaning and farrow to finish), was also included. Presence of positive fattening pigs or positive sows up to a distance of 1500 m of a sow herd increased its risk of being seropositive, although this variable had no effect on the risk when located at distances up to 1000 or 2000 m. The number of seropositive sows increased the risk of a sow herd being ADV seropositive only in the first period of study, when the proportion of serologically positive sow herds was nearly 60%. The spatial pattern of the residuals of the hierarchical Bayesian binomial model (observed versus predicted) was very similar to the observed infection in sow herds in all of the eradication periods, showing that spatial factors might not be the main factors related to the eradication of Aujeszky's disease from sow herds. Other herd-specific risk factors might be much more strongly related to the risk of a sow herd being ADV seropositive.