A simple model for complex dynamical transitions in epidemics

Dramatic changes in patterns of epidemics have been observed throughout this century. For childhood infectious diseases such as measles, the major transitions are between regular cycles and irregular, possibly chaotic epidemics, and from regionally synchronized oscillations to complex, spatially incoherent epidemics. A simple model can explain both kinds of transitions as the consequences of changes in birth and vaccination rates. Measles is a natural ecological system that exhibits different dynamical transitions at different times and places, yet all of these transitions can be predicted as bifurcations of a single nonlinear model.     

Host species barriers to influenza virus infections

Most emerging infectious diseases in humans originate from animal reservoirs; to contain and eradicate these diseases we need to understand how and why some pathogens become capable of crossing host species barriers. Influenza virus illustrates the interaction of factors that limit the transmission and subsequent establishment of an infection in a novel host species. Influenza species barriers can be categorized into virus-host interactions occurring within individuals and host-host interactions, either within or between species, that affect transmission between individuals. Viral evolution can help surmount species barriers, principally by affecting virus-host interactions; however, evolving the capability for sustained transmission in a new host species represents a major adaptive challenge because the number of mutations required is often large.     

Synchrony, waves, and spatial hierarchies in the spread of influenza

Quantifying long-range dissemination of infectious diseases is a key issue in their dynamics and control. Here, we use influenza-related mortality data to analyze the between-state progression of interpandemic influenza in the United States over the past 30 years. Outbreaks show hierarchical spatial spread evidenced by higher pairwise synchrony between more populous states. Seasons with higher influenza mortality are associated with higher disease transmission and more rapid spread than are mild ones. The regional spread of infection correlates more closely with rates of movement of people to and from their workplaces (workflows) than with geographical distance. Workflows are described in turn by a gravity model, with a rapid decay of commuting up to around 100 km and a long tail of rare longer range flow. A simple epidemiological model, based on the gravity formulation, captures the observed increase of influenza spatial synchrony with transmissibility; high transmission allows influenza to spread rapidly beyond local spatial constraints.     

Synthesis of macroporous minerals with highly ordered three-dimensional arrays of spheroidal voids

Titania, zirconia, and alumina samples with periodic three-dimensional arrays of macropores were synthesized from the corresponding metal alkoxides, using latex spheres as templates. In a fast, single-step reaction, the monomeric alkoxide precursors permeate the array of bulk polystyrene spheres and condense in air at room temperature. Close packed, open-pore structures with 320- to 360-nanometer voids are obtained after calcination of the organic component at 575 degreesC. The examples presented demonstrate the compositional diversity possible with this technique. The resulting highly structured ceramics could have applications in areas ranging from quantum electronics to photocatalysis to battery materials.     

Minimally invasive approach to lumbosacral decompression in a cadaveric canine model

AIMS: To determine efficacy of a minimally invasive (MI) surgical approach using a human MI lumbar retractor for canine lumbosacral dorsal laminectomy and partial discectomy and to compare this technique to the standard open surgical (OS) approach.

METHODS: Lumbosacral dorsal laminectomy and partial discectomy was performed on 16 large-breed canine cadavers using either a standard OS (n=8) or MI (n=8) approach. Skin and fascial incision length, procedure time, and intraoperative complications were recorded. Postoperatively specimens were evaluated for laminectomy and discectomy dimensions, and visible damage to the cauda equina and exiting nerve roots.

RESULTS: Median length of skin and fascial incisions in the OS group were longer than in the MI group (p<0.001). Median laminectomy length was similar between both approaches (p=0.234) but width was greater for the MI than OS approach (p=0.002). Both approaches achieved similar partial discectomy width (p=0.279). Overall surgical time was longer for MI approaches compared to OS, with a median of 18.5 (min 15.5, max 21.8) minutes for MI compared to 14.6 (min 13.1, max 16.9) minutes for OS (p=0.001).

CONCLUSIONS: The MI approach reduced incision lengths while retaining comparable laminectomy and discectomy dimensions. For this in vitro model the MI approach required more time to complete, but this difference may not be relevant in clinical cases.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Dogs undergoing lumbosacral dorsal laminectomy are commonly large-breed dogs. The traditional open approach requires a large skin incision and soft tissue dissection, especially in overweight animals. A MI approach accomplishing the same surgical result while minimising soft tissue trauma could reduce post-operative pain and recovery time, and may lower wound-related complications. Clinical studies are needed to confirm postoperative benefit and assess operating times in vivo.     

Corpus Luteum Development and Function after Supplementation of Long‐Acting Progesterone During the Early Luteal Phase in Beef Cattle

Strategic supplementation of P4 may be used to increase conception rates in cattle, but timing of supplementation in relation to ovulation, mass of supplementary P4 and formulation of the P4‐containing supplement has not been determined for beef cattle. Effects of supplementation of long‐acting progesterone (P4) on Days 2 or 3 post‐ovulation on development, function and regression of corpus luteum (CL) were studied in beef cattle. Cows were synchronized with an oestradiol/P4‐based protocol and treated with 150 or 300 mg of long‐acting P4 on Day 2 or 3 post‐ovulation (6–7 cows/group). Colour‐doppler ultrasound scanning and blood sample collection were performed from Day 2–21.5. Plasma P4 concentrations were greater (p < 0.05) from Day 2.5–5.5 in the Day 2‐treated groups and from Day 3.5–5.5 in the Day 3‐treated cows than in the control group. CL area and blood flow during Day 2–8.5 did not differ (p > 0.05) among groups, suggesting no effect of P4 treatment on luteal development. The frequency of cows that began luteolysis before Day 15 was greater (p < 0.04) in cows treated with 300 mg than in the controls, but there were no differences between non‐treated and 150 mg‐treated cows. The interval from pre‐treatment ovulation to functional and structural luteolysis was shorter (p < 0.01) in the combined P4‐treated groups than in the control cows. In conclusion, was showed for the first time that long‐acting P4 supplementation on Day 2 or 3 post‐ovulation increases P4 concentrations for ≥3 day, has no effect on luteal development, but anticipates the beginning of luteolysis in beef cattle.     

Mathematical model for the impact of a pseudorabies epizootic on the productivity of a farrow-to-finish operation

A fully age-structured deterministic model of the population biology of a pseudorabies epizootic in a farrow-to-finish operation was used to examine the disease-related change in productivity following the initial disease episode. A strategy involving continual sow vaccination was compared with various strategies involving the vaccination of growing pigs, as well as sows. The model suggests that vaccinating growing pigs, in addition to the breeding herd, results in only a relatively small improvement in long-term productivity following a pseudorabies epizootic.     

Population biology of pseudorabies in swine

A deterministic mathematical model of the population biology of pseudorabies in swine was used to clarify some of the basic features of the host-virus relationship and to inquire into the circumstances that promote or impede virus persistence in a single herd. When the basic reproductive rate of the infection (ie, the number of secondary infections resulting from the introduction of a single infective animal into a wholly susceptible herd) is greater than unity, the model suggests that the number of infective individuals in the herd will undergo highly damped oscillations to a final equilibrium level. The most important determinants of virus persistence are herd size and the density at which sows are maintained. There is a threshold density of susceptible individuals below which the virus will eventually be eliminated from the herd, even when specific control measures are lacking. Test and removal strategies hasten virus elimination when herd density is already below threshold, but are otherwise likely to succeed only when the removal of latent infections reduces the basic reproductive rate of the infection below unity. Vaccination strategies may also result in virus elimination, but only in relatively small herds.